A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones(hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008,correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature(SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction.A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors.Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.     

STUDIES ON RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENSO AND LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA

The data of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in China and ENSO events and the NinoZ index during 1951 to 2005 were used to study the relationships between ENSO and landfalling TCs in China. ENSO events from July to September have obvious effects on landfalling TCs in China. When El Nio persists throughout the months, the frequency of landfalling TCs is less than normal, the season of landfalling TCs is shorter, the annually first landfall is later, the annually last landfall is earlier, and the mean int...     

2017年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析

利用历史台风最佳路径、中央气象台台风路径强度实时预报,以及ECMWF数值预报和NCEP海温实况等资料,对2017年西北太平洋台风活动的主要特征和预报难点进行了分析,结果表明：2017年台风生成具有源地偏西、南海台风偏多和台风群发特征明显等特征;台风活动具有年度活跃程度低、台风极值强度偏弱和超强台风异常偏少等特征;台风登陆具有登陆台风个数多、登陆地点偏南、登陆强度偏弱等特征。对2017年度的预报误差进行分析,结果显示：24、48、72、96和120 h台风路径预报误差分别为74、137、233、318、428 km,各时效误差均较2016年有所增加;但与日本、美国相比,除120 h外,中国路径预报水平依然处于领先地位。 24、48、72、96和120 h台风强度误差分别为3.6、5.4、6.6、7.4和6.8 m·s-1,较2016年有所减小,24 h误差为历史最低值。强度预报水平居于日本、美国之间。另外,2017年最主要的预报难点是双台风或多台风之间复杂的相互作用和近海快速加强台风的强度预报。     

THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPACT OF THE WESTWARD-GOING TROPICAL CYCLONES ON RAINFALL IN YUNNAN PLATEAU

Using data available from the Retrieval System Based on Yearbooks of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data and observed precipitation data for 1959 to 2007 in Yunnan,a province located in a low-latitude plateau,this work analyzes the climatic characteristics and the corresponding large-scale circulation patterns related to the western North Pacific westward moving TCs(WMTCs).Its impacts on the rainfall in the Yunnan Plateau are studied.Results show that WMTCs happen almost every year,mainly from July to September.It shows a downward trend in decadal variation.Nearly the entire Yunnan area is affected by them but the eastern part experiences the most severe influences.Most of the WMTCs migrate from the South China Sea,primarily make landfall in Hainan and Guangdong and enter the Northern Bay.The tracks of these typhoons can be classified into five categories,in which the most significant impact results from those making landfall in Guangdong.All categories of the tropical cyclones can induce province-wide heavy rainfall in Yunnan.Super typhoons bring about the heaviest and most extensive rainfall over the low-latitude plateau while the associated circulation pattern is marked with a dominant 500 hPa meridional circulation at middle latitudes,an active monsoon depression and Intertropical Convection Zone(ITCZ) at low latitudes and a westward-located South Asia High at 100 hPa,which is favorable for tropical cyclones to travel westward.WMTCs tend to go westward into the interior part of China if the subtropical high extends its westernmost ridge point to the northeast of Yunnan,or expands its periphery anti-cyclonic circulation to the Tibetan Plateau,or merges with the Qinghai-Tibetan high.     

“海棠”台风降水非对称分布特征成因的定量分析

2005年7月19日08时～20日08时“海棠”（Haitang)台风登陆福建省前后24小时期间, 带来一次明显降水过程, 且台风北侧降水较南侧强, 呈明显非对称分布。利用WRF模式对此次降水过程进行了数值模拟, 基于模拟结果, 不仅分析研究了相对湿度、 垂直上升运动场, 同时还进行改进的湿Q矢量诊断分析, 以及计算分析地形抬升和地表摩擦的强迫作用, 定量分析“海棠”台风降水非对称分布特征形成的可能成因。结果表明:（1) WRF模式成功地模拟出了此次降水非对称分布特征、主要降水落区, 以及300 mm以上极端强降水的强度、位置, 模拟效果令人鼓舞。（2) 垂直上升运动条件可能是造成降水非对称分布特征的主要因素。（3) 台风北侧改进的湿Q矢量散度辐合强度明显较其南侧强, 进一步计算分析发现, 改进的湿Q矢量散度强迫产生的降水场也呈明显非对称分布, 且台风北侧强于南侧。（4) 地形因子强迫产生的降水强度约是改进的湿Q矢量散度强迫产生的降水强度的1.6～2.5倍, 且地表摩擦作用强迫产生的降水强度约是地形抬升作用强迫产生的降水强度的2～3倍。     

1909号台风“利奇马”登陆后强降水分布特征

利用逐小时加密观测站资料、三源融合降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,分析了2019年第9号台风"利奇马"登陆后强降水的分布及演变特征,并对不同时段内与强降水落区有关的大尺度环境条件及水汽条件等因素进行了分析。结果表明:"利奇马"登陆后强降水范围出现了三次增幅,分别出现在登陆后3 h、登陆后14 h和次日清晨。进一步分析发现降水效率在登陆后也明显增加,第一次强降水主要由台风本体降水造成,并与低空急流的维持以及水汽输送的贡献有关;第二次降水增幅与北侧螺旋雨带的稳定维持密切相关,另外干冷空气的侵入也是造成降水结构非对称的原因;第三次在山东半岛出现的强降水与台风倒槽和干冷空气的叠加形成的锋生作用有关。     

2010年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征及成因的初步分析

文章用热带气旋资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料等,对2010年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋活动特征进行分析,总结有五方面的特点：（1）编号最少,登陆比例最高;（2）生成时间集中,生成位置偏西;（3）强台风和短生命期热带气旋比例偏高;（4）初台偏晚,终台偏晚;（5）登陆前少后多,登陆地点相对集中。另外,还对热带气旋活动特征的成因进行了初步研究。结果表明：（1）东印度洋持续偏暖是导致编号热带气旋异常偏少的重要原因;厄尔尼诺事件的滞后影响也是重要外强迫因素之一。（2）大气环流异常是造成热带气旋活动异常的直接原因,表现在副热带高压偏强偏西,季风槽位置异常偏西,垂直风切变偏大等几方面因素的综合影响。     

Characteristics and Diagnosis of the Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of China During 1981-2018

This paper applies statistical and synthetic analysis methods to study the characteristics of the three types of tropical cyclone (TC) that landed in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 1981 to 2018 and the reasons for the differences of TC-induced wind and precipitation. The results show that there are interdecadal changes in the frequency and intensity of the landfalling TCs in the GBA, with decreased frequency but increased intensity in the 2010s. The TCs that landed in the west of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) have the most frequency and the strongest intensity during landing, which bring the strongest winds; the TCs that landed in the PRE have the least frequency and the shortest duration after landing, which cause the strongest precipitation; the TCs that landed in the east of the PRE have the relatively longest duration on the land. This study shows that near the center of the TCs that landed in the PRE, there is a weak anomalous cyclonic shear compared with the ones that landed in the west of the PRE. Compared with the TCs that landed in the east of the PRE, it is a confluence area of anomalous north wind and anomalous southwest wind, with better water vapor convergence and dynamic rising conditions, which is conducive to the formation of heavy precipitation. Compared with the TCs that landed in the PRE and in its east, there is a closed positive anomalous center of pressure gradient in the northwest center of the TCs that landed in its west, resulting in higher wind speeds in the west of the PRE. The characteristics of the three types of TCs in the GBA are highly related to TC-induced damage. In the future, the GBA needs to focus on preventing TCs landing in its west. Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Huizhou are key cities to guard against TCs. The results of this study provide foundations for effective management and reduction of TC disaster risks in the future construction of the GBA.     

SENSITIVITY OF LANDFALLING TYPHOON STRUCTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO VARYING CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES

Typhoon KROSA in 2007 is simulated using GRAPES, a mesoscale numerical model, in which a two-parameter mixed-phase microphysics scheme is implanted. A series of numerical experiments are designed to test the sensitivity of landfalling typhoon structure and precipitation to varying cloud microphysics and latent heat release. It is found that typhoon track is sensitive to different microphysical processes and latent heat release. The cloud structures of simulated cyclones can be quite different with that of varying microphysical processes. Graupel particles play an important role in the formation of local heavy rainfall and the maintenance of spiral rainbands. Analysis reveals that the feedback of latent heat to dynamic fields can significantly change the content and distribution of cloud hydrometeors, thus having an impact on surface precipitation.     

Numerical Study of Boundary Layer Structure and Rainfall after Landfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013): Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The boundary layer structure and related heavy rainfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013), which made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, are studied using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the sensitivity of the simulation to the planetary boundary layer parameterization. Two groups of experiments—one with the same surface layer scheme and including the Yonsei University(YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino Level 2.5,and Bougeault and Lacarrere schemes; and the other with different surface layer schemes and including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic′ and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination schemes—are investigated. For the convenience of comparative analysis, the simulation with the YSU scheme is chosen as the control run because this scheme successfully reproduces the track, intensity and rainfall as a whole. The maximum deviations in the peak tangential and peak radial winds may account for 11% and 33%of those produced in the control run, respectively. Further diagnosis indicates that the vertical diffusivity is much larger in the first group, resulting in weaker vertical shear of the tangential and radial winds in the boundary layer and a deeper inflow layer therein. The precipitation discrepancies are related to the simulated track deflection and the differences in the simulated low-level convergent flow among all tests. Furthermore, the first group more efficiently transfers moisture and energy and produces a stronger ascending motion than the second, contributing to a deeper moist layer, stronger convection and greater precipitation.