登陆粤西的热带气旋降水特征分析

利用1949～2000年《热带气旋年鉴》资料,对51年来登陆粤西的热带气旋在陆地维持时间、不同强度的降水之间的分布、相同量级强降水的分布等进行统计分析,揭示登陆粤西热带气旋降水分布实况和特征。结果表明,登陆粤西的热带气旋在登陆后的维持时间和其造成陆地强降水范围成正相关的关系;热带气旋造成不同强度(暴雨、大暴雨、特大暴雨)的降水在其路径左右侧分布,雨强越大,出现的几率越少;热带气旋登陆后造成的暴雨量级降水在热带气旋路径右侧比左侧产生的几率更大;而大暴雨、特大暴雨落在路径左侧的可能性比落在右侧的可能性大。     

The cloud-microphysical cause of torrential rainfall amplification associated with Bilis (0604)

After its landfall in China’s mainland in 2006, Typhoon Bilis brought about torrential rainfall amplification at the edge of Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces, causing severe disasters. From a cloud-microphysical perspective, we discuss the differences of cloud-microphysical processes before and during the precipitation amplification and possible causes of the rainfall amplification by using high-resolution simulation data. The results show that the cloud-microphysical characteristics during the above two periods are significantly different. With the distinct increase in the rainfall intensity, the cloud hydrometeor contents increase markedly, especially those of the ice-phase hydrometeors including ice, snow and graupel, contributing more to the surface rainfall. The clouds develop highly and vigorously. Comparisons of conversion rates of the cloud hydrometeors between the above two periods show that the distinct increases in the cloud water content caused by the distinct enhancement of the water vapor condensation rate contribute to the surface rainfall mainly in two ways. First, the rain water content increases significantly by accretion of cloud water by rain water, which thus contributes to the surface rainfall. Second, the accretion of cloud water by snow increases significantly the content of snow, which is then converted to graupel by accretion of snow by graupel. And then the graupel melts into rain water, which subsequently contributes to the surface rainfall amplification. In summary, a flow chart is given to clarify the cloud-microphysical cause of the torrential rainfall amplification associated with Bilis.     

An Overview of Research and Forecasting on Rainfall Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition (ET), interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.     

台风登陆背景下陕西两次大暴雨过程对比分析

采用天气学、动力诊断等方法对2010年7月陕西出现两次大暴雨过程综合分析。目的在于揭示近海台风活动对陕西区域性暴雨作用和影响,结果表明：近海台风活动是影响造成两次大暴雨的一个关键因子。两次暴雨的水汽输送均由登陆后的台风低压环流东侧的偏南急流来实现,且以700hPa表现最为显著。前一次暴雨过程中热力条件和高层抽吸对增强上升运动和对流作用明显。后一次暴雨过程是因持续、深厚和稳定少动的河套低压自身不断发展加深的作用,加剧了上升运动发展,其上升运动区与暴雨区吻合较好。     

A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones(hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008,correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature(SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction.A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors.Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.     

THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPACT OF THE WESTWARD-GOING TROPICAL CYCLONES ON RAINFALL IN YUNNAN PLATEAU

Using data available from the Retrieval System Based on Yearbooks of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data and observed precipitation data for 1959 to 2007 in Yunnan,a province located in a low-latitude plateau,this work analyzes the climatic characteristics and the corresponding large-scale circulation patterns related to the western North Pacific westward moving TCs(WMTCs).Its impacts on the rainfall in the Yunnan Plateau are studied.Results show that WMTCs happen almost every year,mainly from July to September.It shows a downward trend in decadal variation.Nearly the entire Yunnan area is affected by them but the eastern part experiences the most severe influences.Most of the WMTCs migrate from the South China Sea,primarily make landfall in Hainan and Guangdong and enter the Northern Bay.The tracks of these typhoons can be classified into five categories,in which the most significant impact results from those making landfall in Guangdong.All categories of the tropical cyclones can induce province-wide heavy rainfall in Yunnan.Super typhoons bring about the heaviest and most extensive rainfall over the low-latitude plateau while the associated circulation pattern is marked with a dominant 500 hPa meridional circulation at middle latitudes,an active monsoon depression and Intertropical Convection Zone(ITCZ) at low latitudes and a westward-located South Asia High at 100 hPa,which is favorable for tropical cyclones to travel westward.WMTCs tend to go westward into the interior part of China if the subtropical high extends its westernmost ridge point to the northeast of Yunnan,or expands its periphery anti-cyclonic circulation to the Tibetan Plateau,or merges with the Qinghai-Tibetan high.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the intensity of hazard factors (risk sources).In this study,this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors;then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors.The exceedance probability of various hazard factors,including frequency and timing,scope of wind and rain,and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases,are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai from 1959–2006.The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed,and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results.The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai.The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model,and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster.Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa (0716) would be more serious than those by TC Wipha (0713),and that TC Fung Wong (0808) would have a weak impact.Real-life situations validate these results.     

STUDIES ON RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENSO AND LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA

The data of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in China and ENSO events and the NinoZ index during 1951 to 2005 were used to study the relationships between ENSO and landfalling TCs in China. ENSO events from July to September have obvious effects on landfalling TCs in China. When El Nio persists throughout the months, the frequency of landfalling TCs is less than normal, the season of landfalling TCs is shorter, the annually first landfall is later, the annually last landfall is earlier, and the mean int...     

The equatorial undercurrent, meridional overturning circulation, and their roles in mass and heat exchanges during El Niño events in the tropical Pacific ocean

The equatorial undercurrent (EUC), the shallow meridional overturning cells feeding it, and their role in El Niño and decadal variability in the equatorial Pacific are studied using both in situ data and an ocean general circulation model. Using temperature and current data from the TAO/TRITON moorings at the equator, their data gaps are filled and it was shown that continuous time series of mass transport, temperature, depth, and kinetic energy of the EUC could be constructed for the period 1980–2002 with an excellent accuracy. This dataset was analysed and used to validate the output from an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). The OGCM was then used to find that variations in the strength of the EUC, shallow meridional overturning (pycnocline convergence and surface divergence), and equatorial upwelling had the same variations in mass transport on interannual and longer time scales within the period 1951–1999. These variations are all caused by variations of the zonal wind stress zonally integrated, in agreement with simple linear and steady dynamics theories. Impact of these mass transport variations and of temperature variations on heat budgets in the entire equatorial band of the Pacific and in its eastern part are quantified.     

An Analysis of the Low Moving Speed of Landfalling Typhoon In-Fa in 2021

The movement speed of Typhoon In-Fa (2021) was notably slow, at 10 km h?1 or less, for over 20 hoursfollowing its landfall in Zhejiang, China, in contrast to other typhoons that have made landfall. This study examines thefactors contributing to the slow movement of Typhoon In-Fa, including the steering flow, diabatic heating, vertical windshear (VWS), and surface synoptic situation, by comparing it with Typhoons Yagi (2018) and Rumbia (2018) whichfollowed similar tracks. The findings reveal that the movement speed of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia is most closelyassociated with their respective 500 hPa environmental winds, with a steering flow of 10–12 m s ?1. In contrast, Typhoon In Fa’s movement speed is most strongly correlated with the 850 hPa environmental wind field, with a steering flow speed ofonly 2 m s ?1. Furthermore, as Typhoon In-Fa moves northwest after landfall, its intensity is slightly greater than that ofTyphoons Yagi and Rumbia, and the pressure gradient in front of Typhoon In-Fa is notably smaller, leading to its slowmovement. Additionally, the precipitation distribution of Typhoon In-Fa differs from that of the other two typhoons,resulting in a weak asymmetry of wavenumber-1 diabatic heating, which indirectly affects its movement speed. Furtheranalysis indicates that VWS can alter the typhoon’s structure, weaken its intensity, and ultimately impact its movement.