The effect of land cover change on duration and severity of high and low flows

Land cover has been increasingly recognized as an important factor affecting hydrologic processes at the basin and regional level. Therefore, improved understanding of how land cover change affects hydrologic systems is needed for better management of water resources. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of land cover change on the duration and severity of high and low flows by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, Bayesian model averaging and copulas. Two basins dominated by different land cover in the Ohio River basin are used as study area in this study. Two historic land covers from the 1950s and 1990s are considered as input to the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, thereby investigating the hydrologic high and low flow response of different land cover conditions of these two basins. The relationships between the duration and severity of both low and high flow are defined by applying the copula method; changes in the frequency of the duration and severity are investigated. The results show that land cover changes affect both the duration and severity of both high and low flows. An increase in forest area leads to a decrease in the duration and severity during both high and low flows, but its impact is highest during extreme flows. The results also show that the land cover changes have had significant influences on changes in the joint return periods of duration and severity of low and high flows. While this study sheds light on the role of land cover change on severity and duration of high and low flow conditions, more studies using various land cover conditions and climate types are required in order to draw more reliable conclusions in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multicriteria sensitivity analysis as a diagnostic tool for understanding model behaviour and characterizing model uncertainty

Complex hydrological models are being increasingly used nowadays for many purposes such as studying the impact of climate and land‐use change on water resources. However, building a high‐fidelity model, particularly at large scales, remains a challenging task, due to complexities in model functioning and behaviour and uncertainties in model structure, parameterization, and data. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which characterizes how the variation in the model response is attributed to variations in its input factors (e.g., parameters and forcing data), provides an opportunity to enhance the development and application of these complex models. In this paper, we advocate using GSA as an integral part of the modelling process by discussing its capabilities as a tool for diagnosing model structure and detecting potential defects, identifying influential factors, characterizing uncertainty, and selecting calibration parameters. Accordingly, we conduct a comprehensive GSA of a complex land surface–hydrology model, Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), which combines the Canadian land surface scheme with a hydrological routing component, WATROUTE. Various GSA experiments are carried out using a new technique, called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces, for alternative hydroclimatic conditions in Canada using multiple criteria, various model configurations, and a full set of model parameters. Results from this study reveal that, in addition to different hydroclimatic conditions and SA criteria, model configurations can also have a major impact on the assessment of sensitivity. GSA can identify aspects of the model internal functioning that are counter‐intuitive and thus help the modeller to diagnose possible model deficiencies and make recommendations for improving development and application of the model. As a specific outcome of this work, a list of the most influential parameters for the MESH model is developed. This list, along with some specific recommendations, is expected to assist the wide community of MESH and Canadian land surface scheme users, to enhance their modelling applications.     

结合ICESat-2和GEDI的中国东南丘陵地区ASTERGDEM高程精度评价与修正

星载激光雷达ICESat-2和GEDI可以为数字高程模型产品的精度评价与修正提供全球覆盖的、可靠的高精度参考数据源。然而,现有的DEM修正方法主要是针对DEM误差中的植被高信号且多采用线性回归模型。为此,本文分析了ASTER GDEM v3精度与土地覆盖类型、高程、坡度、起伏度及植被覆盖率的关系。在此基础上,提出了一种考虑上述多种精度影响因素并结合XGBoost和空间插值的DEM误差修正方法。结果分析表明:原始ASTER GDEM的误差整体呈正态分布,平均误差为-3.463 m,存在较大负偏差,高程精度随着高程、坡度、起伏度及植被覆盖率VCF的增大呈降低趋势;经过修正后,ASTER GDEM平均误差降低到了-0.233 m,负偏差得到有效改善,整体平均绝对误差降低了26.04%,整体均方差降低了23.56%,耕地、林地、草地、湿地、水域及人造地表的DEM平均绝对误差和均方差都有不同程度的降低;本文提出的方法对多种特征要素与地形误差间的非线性关系进行拟合建模,在研究区取得了较好的修正效果。     

Soil erosion in the Anthropocene: Research needs

Soil erosion is a geomorphological and, at the same time, a land degradation process that may cause environmental and property damage, loss of livelihoods and services as well as social and economic disruption. Erosion not only lowers soil quality on‐site, but causes also significant sediment‐related problems off‐site. Given the large number of research papers on this topic, one might therefore conclude that we know now almost everything about soil erosion and its control so that little new knowledge can be added. This conclusion can be refuted by pointing to some major research gaps. There is a need for more research attention to (1) improved understanding of both natural and anthropogenic soil erosion processes and their interactions, (2) scaling up soil erosion processes and rates in space and time, and (3) innovative techniques and strategies to prevent soil erosion or reduce erosion rates. This is illustrated with various case studies from around the world. If future research addresses these research gaps, we will (1) better understand processes and their interactions operating at a range of spatial and temporal scales, predict their rates as well as their on‐site and off‐site impacts, which is academically spoken rewarding but also crucial for better targeting erosion control measures, and (2) we will be in a better position to select the most appropriate and effective soil erosion control techniques and strategies which are highly necessary for a sustainable use of soils in the Anthropocene. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gully head modelling: A Mediterranean badland case study

Predicting the location of gully heads in various environments is an important step towards predicting gully erosion rates. So far, field data collection and modelling of topographic thresholds for gully head development has mainly focused on gullies that formed in forested areas, rangelands, pastures and cropland. Such information for gullies in badlands however is very scarce. Therefore, this paper aims to extend the database on gully head topographical thresholds through data collection in a badland area and to improve the prediction of gully heads forming at sites with a very low erosion resistance value. For this, we chose a badland site located in central Italy that is characterized by biancana forms and both active and dormant gullies. The definition of the conditions under which present‐day gully heads developed allowed a better modelling of the gully head threshold equation, with modification of a previous model and the exemplification of how to use the updated model. The model shows that the resistance to gully head retreat depends on slope gradient and drainage area at gully heads, land use at the moment of gully development (as numerically expressed using parameters derived from the Runoff Curve Number method), surface rock fragment cover, presence of joints, pipes, and factors/processes affecting detachment rate. This study attempted to better understand environmental conditions that control the development of gully heads in badlands through a combination of field data collection of gully heads, an analysis of land use changes over 10 centuries, focusing on the period 1820–2005, and land use management through repeat photography and a critical examination of historical documents. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage

Inter‐basin differences in streamflow response to changes in regional hydroclimatology may reflect variations in storage characteristics that control the retention and release of water inputs. These aspects of storage could mediate a basin's sensitivity to climate change. The hypothesis that temporal trends in stream baseflow exhibit a more muted reaction to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for basins with greater storage was tested on the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in Southern Ontario, Canada. Long‐term (>25 years) baseflow trends for 16 basins were compared to corresponding trends in precipitation amount and type and in potential evapotranspiration as well as shorter trends in groundwater levels for monitoring wells on the ORM. Inter‐basin differences in storage properties were characterized using physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, and streamflow metrics. The latter included the slope of the basin's flow duration curve and basin dynamic storage. Most basins showed temporal increases in baseflow, consistent with limited evidence of increases and decreases in regional precipitation and snowfall: precipitation ratio, respectively, and recent increases in groundwater recharge along the crest of the ORM. Baseflow trend magnitude was uncorrelated to basin physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, or flow duration curve characteristics. However, it was positively related to a basin's dynamic storage, particularly for basins with limited coverage of open water and wetlands. The dynamic storage approach assumes that a basin behaves as a first‐order dynamical system, and extensive open water and wetland areas in a basin may invalidate this assumption. Previous work suggested that smaller dynamic storage was linked to greater damping of temporal variations in water inputs and reduced interannual variability in streamflow regime. Storage and release of water inputs to a basin may assist in mediating baseflow response to temporal changes in regional hydroclimatology and may partly account for inter‐basin differences in that response. Such storage characteristics should be considered when forecasting the impacts of climate change on regional streamflow.     

Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment

In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years.     

Dynamics and patterns of land levelling for agricultural reclamation of erosional badlands in Chambal Valley (Madhya Pradesh,India)

Gully and badland erosion constitute important land‐degradation processes with severe on‐site and off‐site effects above all in sedimentary deposits and alluvial soils of the arid and semi‐arid regions. Agricultural use of the affected land is impeded both by the irreversible loss of topsoil and the morphological dissection of the terrain. In various badland regions around the world, a solution to the latter problem is attempted by infilling of gullies and levelling of badland topography in order restore a morphology suitable for agricultural cultivation. Gully and badland levelling for agricultural reclamation has been conducted for decades in the large ravine lands of India. This study aims at analysing the distribution and dynamics of land levelling within the Chambal badlands in Morena district, Madhya Pradesh, between 1971 and 2015. Using high to medium resolution satellite images from the Corona, Landsat, Aster and RapidEye missions and a multi‐temporal classification approach, we have mapped and quantified areas that were newly levelled within eight observation periods. We analysed the spatial relation of levelled land to several physical and socio‐economic factors that potentially influence the choice of reclamation site by employing geographic information system (GIS) analysis methods and results from focus‐group discussions in selected villages. Results show that nearly 38 km² or 23% of the badlands in the study area have been levelled within 45 years. The levelling rate generally increases during the observation period, but the annual variability is high. We have found spatial relationships to badland morphology, vicinity of existing cropland and proximity to villages and drainage lines. From a socio‐economic point of view, availability of financial and technical means, access rights to the badland and ownership issues play an important role. Considering studies on soil degradation caused by levelling of badlands in other regions, the sustainability of the newly reclaimed fields in the Chambal badlands is questionable. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consistency of precipitation products over the Arabian Peninsula and interactions with soil moisture and water storage

The regional-scale consistency between four precipitation products from the GPCC, TRMM, WM, and CMORPH datasets over the Arabian Peninsula was assessed. Their macroscale relationships were inter-compared with soil moisture and total water storage (TWS) estimates from AMSR-E and GRACE. The consistency analysis was studied with multivariate statistical hypothesis testing and Pearson correlation metrics for the period from January 2000 to December 2010. The products and GRACE estimates were assessed over a representative sub-domain (United Arab Emirates) with available in situ well observations. Next, geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was employed to examine the interdependencies among the peninsula’s hydrological components. The results showed GPCC-TRMM recording the highest correlation (0.85) with insignificant mean differences over more than 90% of the peninsula. The highest GTWR predictive performance of TWS (R² = 0.84) was achieved with TRMM forcing, which indicates its potential to monitor changes in TWS over the arid peninsular region.     

内蒙古半干旱区沙尘天气特征及其与地表特征的关系

利用2002-2010年朱日和气象站观测资料,结合同期归一化植被指数(NDVI),叶面积指数(LAI),植被净初级生产力(NPP)资料,分析了内蒙古半干旱区朱日和地区2002-2010年的沙尘天气特征。结果表明：朱日和地区临界起沙风速为9.4 m·s-1,2002-2010年沙尘天气频率和大于临界起沙风速频率呈波动变化,沙尘天气频率和大于临界起沙风速频率有很好相关性,超过18 m·s-1的强风极易导致沙尘天气的发生;定义标准化的沙尘天气频率（NfDO）为沙尘天气频率与大于临界起沙风速频率之比,当夏季降水量大于100 mm,夏季最大NDVI、最大LAI和最大NPP分别大于0.24、0.3 g·m-2·d-1和0.6 g·m-2·d-1（以碳计算）时,次年春季NfDO较低,沙尘天气不易发生;反之沙尘天气较易发生。对沙尘天气发生机制的分析发现,夏季有效的降水促进了植物生长,夏季降水量、最大NDVI、最大LAI和最大NPP增大,来年春天土壤不容易侵蚀,沙尘天气不易发生。