基于MODIS的珠江三角洲地区区域热岛的分布特征

通过MODIS地温数据,研究了珠三角地区由于快速的城市化过程造成的区域性大范围温度升高现象,即区域热岛现象。分析结果表明,MODIS数据能够较好地反映出区域城市化进程中区域地表热环境的变化。不同下垫面的温度差异是形成区域热岛的基础。在大规模连片的城市化过程中,城镇用地的周边区域受到温度升高的影响,地表温度也相应升高,从而造成了区域大面积的温度升高,形成了区域热岛。从空间形态看,区域热岛的空间格局与城镇用地的空间布局具有较高的相关性,大城市或城市连绵区往往是区域热岛的中心。城市连绵区及其周边区域的热岛现象十分明显,而位于研究区的西南和东北方位的城镇分布比较分散,对应的区域热岛现象并不显著。     

长春市不同土地利用生境土壤甲虫群落结构特征

在长春市郊区天然次生林、农田、防护林和市区公园绿地等典型土地利用生境共捕获土壤甲虫32科598只,其中幼虫13科312只,成虫25科286只。应用个体密度、类群数量、群落多样性、丰富度和均匀度等指数,研究土壤甲虫的群落生态结构特征,了解土地利用差异对土壤甲虫群落结构的影响。研究结果表明:长春市不同土地利用生境凋落物的移除对土壤甲虫群落结构没有产生显著影响;农田土壤甲虫群落类群数、个体密度和多样性的降低源于生境作物品种单一和周期性的农田生产活动,防护林在空间上起着相邻农田物种交流廊道的作用;提高生境土壤甲虫群落类群数、个体密度和多样性的关键之一是保持生境类型的复杂性。     

Assessment of gully erosion rates through interviews and measurements: a case study from northern Ethiopia

Gullying has been widespread in the Ethiopian Highlands during the 20th century. It threatens the soil resource, lowers crop yields in intergully areas through enhanced drainage and desiccation, and aggravates flooding and reservoir siltation. Knowing the age and rates of gully development during the last few decades will help explain the reasons for current land degradation. In the absence of historical written or photographic documentation, the AGERTIM method (Assessment of Gully Erosion Rates Through Interviews and Measurements) has been developed. It comprises measurements of contemporary gully volumes, monitoring of gully evolution over several years and semi‐structured interview techniques. Gully erosion rates in the Dogu'a Tembien District, Tigray, Ethiopia, were estimated in three representative case‐study areas. In Dingilet, gullying started around 1965 after gradual environmental changes (removal of vegetation from cropland in the catchment and eucalyptus plantation in the valley bottom); rill‐like incisions grew into a gully, which increased rapidly in the drier period between 1977 and 1990. The estimated evolution of the total gully volume in the other areas show patterns similar to those of the Dingilet gully. Average gully erosion rate over the last 50 years is 6·2 t ha^?1 a^?1. Since 1995, no new gullies have developed in the study area. Area‐specific short‐term gully erosion rates are now on average 1·1 t ha^?1 a^?1. The successful application of the AGERTIM method requires an understanding of the geomorphology of the study area and an integration of the researchers with the rural society. It reveals that rapid gully development in the study area is some 50 years old and is mainly caused by human‐induced environmental degradation. Under the present‐day conditions of ‘normal’ rain and catchment‐wide soil and water conservation, gully erosion rates are decreasing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于遥感和统计数据的成都市碳氧平衡分析

以四川省成都市为研究区,利用2014年Landsat-8 OLI遥感影像,提取该区土地利用/覆被数据,并结合经济、交通、生产耗能等基础统计数据,构建碳-氧平衡分析模型,对2014年碳氧收支量进行了研究,并对碳-氧平衡状况进行分析评价。结果表明,成都市2014年碳平衡系数为-0.049,氧平衡系数为-0.503。由于成都市东中西部社会活动功能差异和土地覆被类型分布不均,导致成都市19个行政区的碳氧平衡差异明显。最后,基于研究结果,对降低碳释放、社会经济活动和生态空间格局方面提出相应建议,可为成都市生态文明建设提供科学依据。     

The impact of land use change and check‐dams on catchment sediment yield

Extensive land use changes have occurred in many areas of SE Spain as a result of reforestation and the abandonment of agricultural activities. Parallel to this the Spanish Administration spends large funds on hydrological control works to reduce erosion and sediment transport. However, it remains untested how these large land use changes affect the erosion processes at the catchment scale and if the hydrological control works efficiently reduce sediment export. A combination of field work, mapping and modelling was used to test the influence of land use scenarios with and without sediment control structures (check‐dams) on sediment yield at the catchment scale. The study catchment is located in SE Spain and suffered important land use changes, increasing the forest cover 3‐fold and decreasing the agricultural land 2·5‐fold from 1956 to 1997. In addition 58 check‐dams were constructed in the catchment in the 1970s accompanying reforestation works. The erosion model WATEM‐SEDEM was applied using six land use scenarios: land use in 1956, 1981 and 1997, each with and without check‐dams. Calibration of the model provided a model efficiency of 0·84 for absolute sediment yield. Model application showed that in a scenario without check dams, the land use changes between 1956 and 1997 caused a progressive decrease in sediment yield of 54%. In a scenario without land use changes but with check‐dams, about 77% of the sediment yield was retained behind the dams. Check‐dams can be efficient sediment control measures, but with a short‐lived effect. They have important side‐effects, such as inducing channel erosion downstream. While also having side‐effects, land use changes can have important long‐term effects on sediment yield. The application of either land use changes (i.e. reforestation) or check‐dams to control sediment yield depends on the objective of the management and the specific environmental conditions of each area. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regression‐based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change

We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km² urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin: reference crop evaporation or Shuttleworth–Wallace?

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a key input to hydrological models. Its estimation has often been via the Penman–Monteith (P–M) equation, most recently in the form of an estimate of reference evapotranspiration (RET) as recommended by FAO‐56. In this paper the Shuttleworth–Wallace (S–W) model is implemented to estimate PET directly in a form that recognizes vegetation diversity and temporal change without reference to experimental measurements and without calibration. The threshold values of vegetation parameters are drawn from the literature based on the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme land cover classification. The spatial and temporal variation of the LAI of vegetation is derived from the composite NOAA‐AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a method based on the SiB2 model, and the Climate Research Unit database is used to provide the required meteorological data. All these data inputs are publicly and globally available. Consequently, the implementation of the S–W model developed in this study is applicable at the global scale, an essential requirement if it is to be applied in data‐poor or ungauged large basins. A comparison is made between the FAO‐56 method and the S–W model when applied to the Yellow River basin for the whole of the last century. The resulting estimates of RET and PET and their association with vegetation types and leaf area index (LAI) are examined over the whole basin both annual and monthly and at six specific points. The effect of NDVI on the PET estimate is further evaluated by replacing the monthly NDVI product with the 10‐day product. Multiple regression relationships between monthly PET, RET, LAI, and climatic variables are explored for categories of vegetation types. The estimated RET is a good climatic index that adequately reflects the temporal change and spatial distribution of climate over the basin, but the PET estimated using the S–W model not only reflects the changes in climate, but also the vegetation distribution and the development of vegetation in response to climate. Although good statistical relationships can be established between PET, RET and/or climatic variables, applying these relationships likely will result in large errors because of the strong non‐linearity and scatter between the PET and the LAI of vegetation. It is concluded that use of the implementation of the S–W model described in this study results in a physically sound estimate of PET that accounts for changing land surface conditions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The total operating characteristic to measure diagnostic ability for multiple thresholds

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) is a popular statistical method to measure the association between observed and diagnosed presence of a characteristic. The diagnosis of presence or absence depends on whether the value of an index variable is above a threshold. ROC considers multiple possible thresholds. Each threshold generates a two-by-two contingency table, which contains four central entries: hits, misses, false alarms, and correct rejections. ROC reveals for each threshold only two ratios, hits/(hits + misses) and false alarms/(false alarms + correct rejections). This article introduces the total operating characteristic (TOC), which shows the total information in the contingency table for each threshold. TOC maintains desirable properties of ROC, while TOC reveals strictly more information than ROC in a manner that makes TOC more useful than ROC. We illustrate the concepts with an application to land change science.     

A new insight into land use classification based on aggregated mobile phone data

Land-use classification is essential for urban planning. Urban land-use types can be differentiated either by their physical characteristics (such as reflectivity and texture) or social functions. Remote sensing techniques have been recognized as a vital method for urban land-use classification because of their ability to capture the physical characteristics of land use. Although significant progress has been achieved in remote sensing methods designed for urban land-use classification, most techniques focus on physical characteristics, whereas knowledge of social functions is not adequately used. Owing to the wide usage of mobile phones, the activities of residents, which can be retrieved from the mobile phone data, can be determined in order to indicate the social function of land use. This could bring about the opportunity to derive land-use information from mobile phone data. To verify the application of this new data source to urban land-use classification, we first construct a vector of aggregated mobile phone data to characterize land-use types. This vector is composed of two aspects: the normalized hourly call volume and the total call volume. A semi-supervised fuzzy c-means clustering approach is then applied to infer the land-use types. The method is validated using mobile phone data collected in Singapore. Land use is determined with a detection rate of 58.03%. An analysis of the land-use classification results shows that the detection rate decreases as the heterogeneity of land use increases, and increases as the density of cell phone towers increases.