Metropolitan-scale Transport and Dispersion from the New York World Trade Center Following September 11, 2001. Part II: An Application of the CALPUFF Plume Model

Following the collapse of the New York World Trade Center (WTC) towers on September 11, 2001, Local, State, and Federal agencies initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the ongoing impacts of emissions from the disaster. The collapse of the World Trade Center towers and associated fires that lasted for several weeks resulted at times in a noticeable plume of material that was dispersed around the Metropolitan New York City (NYC) area. In general, the plume was only noticeable for a short period of time following September 11, and only apparent close to the World Trade Center site. A study of the estimated pathway which the plume of WTC material would likely follow was completed to support the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s 2002 initial exposure assessments. In this study, the WTC emissions were simulated using the CALMET-CALPUFF model in order to examine the general spatial and temporal dispersion patterns over NYC. This paper presents the results of the CALPUFF plume model in terms of plume dilution and location, since the exact source strength remains unknown. Independent observations of PM_2.5 are used to support the general dispersion features calculated by the model. Results indicate that the simulated plume matched well with an abnormal increase (600–1000% of normal) in PM_2.5 two nights after the WTC collapse as the plume rotated north to southeast, towards parts of NYC. Very little if any evidence of the plume signature was noted during a similar flow scenario a week after September 11. This leads to the conclusion that other than areas within a few kilometers from the WTC site, the PM_2.5 plume was not observable over NYC’s background concentration after the first few days.     

Observations and Numerical Simulations of Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze Circulations over New York City

Observations from two SOund Detection And Ranging (SODAR) units, a 10 m micrometeorological tower and five Automated Surface Observing Stations (ASOS) were examined during several synoptic scale flow regimes over New York City after the World Trade Center disaster on September 11, 2001. An ARPS model numerical simulation was conducted to explore the complex mesoscale boundary layer structure over New York City. The numerical investigation examined the urban heat island, urban roughness effect and sea breeze structure over the New York City region. Estimated roughness lengths varied from 0.7 m with flow from the water to 4 m with flow through Manhattan. A nighttime mixed layer was observed over lower Manhattan, indicating the existence of an urban heat island. The ARPS model simulated a sea-breeze front moving through lower Manhattan during the study period consistent with the observations from the SODARs and the 10-m tower observations. Wind simulations showed a slowing and cyclonic turning of the 10-m air flow as the air moved over New York City from the ocean. Vertical profiles of simulated TKE and wind speeds showed a maximum in TKE over lower Manhattan during nighttime conditions. It appears that this TKE maximum is directly related to the influences of the urban heat island.     

Numerical Modelling of the Effects of Vegetation and Environmental Conditions on the Lake Breeze

The influence of vegetation and environmental conditions on the lake breeze and associated boundary-layer turbulence structure has been studied using a two-dimensional nonhydrostatic, compressible mesoscale model coupled with the SiB2 land-surface scheme. The results show that the impacts of vegetation on the lake effects are dependent on the environmental conditions, such as soil wetness and background wind, as well as vegetation characteristics. Both soil wetness and background wind play important roles in modifying lake effects on boundary-layer turbulence and the lake breeze, while the effects of vegetation type are secondary compared to the other factors. Without background wind, and under the same soil wetness, the maximum horizontal windspeed of the lake breeze is insensitive to the type of vegetation. Soil wetness can greatly affect both the maximum horizontal windspeed and the maximum vertical velocities of the lake breeze. With background wind, the lake-breeze circulations, upward motion regions, and boundary-layer turbulence structure all change markedly. A weaker background wind can strengthen the lake breeze, while stronger background wind suppresses the lake breeze circulations. The distribution of sensible and latent heat fluxes is also very sensitive to the soil wetness and background wind. However, for the same soil wetness (0.25 and 0.4 were chosen), there is only a small difference in the distribution of sensible and latent heat fluxes between the bare soil and vegetated soil or between the types of vegetated soils.     

长江三角洲夏季海陆风与热岛环流的相互作用及城市化的影响

用三维中尺度模式研究长江三角洲夏季海陆风与城市热岛环流的相互作用,白天由于东海海风和太湖湖风环流与上海市热岛环流相互增强,最大垂直速度可达６．２ｃｍ／ｓ;夜间则相反,由于海风（包括长江江风）与湖风的对撞,因而在上海到江阴市沿江出现一条水平辐合带,如果上海周围地区随着经济发展,大片农田被城市下垫面所取代,而使绿地覆盖率下降到１５％以下,则睡季夜间地面气温可上升３℃,两个增温中心分别在苏州和嘉兴附近,     

Small-Scale Variability in the Coastal Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The influence of the main large-scale wind directions on thermally driven mesoscale circulations at the Baltic southwest coast, southeast of Sweden, is examined. The aim of the study is to highlight small-scale alterations in the coastal atmospheric boundary layer. A numerical three-dimensional mesoscale model is used in this study, which is focused on an overall behaviour of the coastal jets, drainage flows, sea breezes, and a low-level eddy-type flow in particular. It is shown that synoptic conditions, together with the moderate terrain of the southeast of Sweden (max. height h₀ 206 m), governs the coastal mesoscale dynamics triggered by the land-sea temperature difference T. The subtle nature of coastal low-level jets and sea breezes is revealed; their patterns are dictated by the interplay between synoptic airflow, coastline orientation, and T.The simulations show that coastal jets typically occur during nighttime and vary in height, intensity and position with respect to the coast; they interact with downslope flows and the background wind. For the assigned land surface temperature (varying ±8 K from the sea temperature) and the opposing constant geostrophic wind 8 m s^-1, the drainage flow is more robust to the opposing ambient flow than the sea breeze later on. Depending on the part of the coast under consideration, and the prevailing ambient wind, the sea breeze can be suppressed or enhanced, stationary at the coast or rapidly penetrating inland, locked up in phase with another dynamic system or almost independently self-evolving. A low-level eddy structure is analyzed. It is governed by tilting, divergence and horizontal advection terms. The horizontal extent of the coastal effects agrees roughly with the Rossby radius of deformation.     

三峡坛子岭单点地面矢量风分析

利用UVW三轴风速仪三峡坛子岭单点地面风观测资料分析了三峡坝区地面风速量值、风向风速出现频率分布、风的日变化规律等，并根据这些观测资料、结合一些地形风理论知识和观测现象推测了三峡坛子岭附近地面风平面流场特征，从而揭示了河道地形回流风这一特殊小地形下的局地风现象。三峡坛子岭附近地面的这种回流风尺度在百米到千米量级，与由于地形热力因子引起的山地风不同，是由于小地形的动力作用引起的，其风向与长江河道引导的山地风相反。     

鲁北沿海强对流天气多发的成因及临近预报

潍坊北部系海陆交界处，由于地理因素，经常形成海陆风锋，当海陆风锋与其他天气系统叠加，会使系统加强，天气剧烈，在夏季是鲁北强对流天气多发的重要原因。一次冷锋过程分析说明与海陆风锋叠加能形成强锋区，锋区上的D、ζ有利于上升运动，与之对应的地面高能区为系统提供了能源。通过对鲁北21个强对流天气个例研究，建立了冰雹云移动路径的临近预报方程。这些研究对鲁北多发强对流天气的成因及冰雹落区预报具有参考价值。     

日照沿海海陆风的气候特点及其对天气的影响

使用近海海温资料和莒县站、日照站气象资料,用对比分析的方法分析了日照地区沿海海陆风的气候特征及对当地天气的影响。发现海陆风明显的季节变化和日变化对当地气温、降水、湿度及天空状况等气象要素的空间和时间分布影响显著。海风强盛季节的午后和陆风强盛季节的早上,沿海的温度梯度常具有海风锋和海岸锋的特征,使沿海地区低云和雷暴天气明显增多,降水分布具有明显的海陆风和地形影响特征。     

盛夏杭州湾一次海风锋触发雷暴的数值模拟分析

利用常规气象观测资料、多普勒气象雷达资料、浙江省自动站加密资料、NCEP/FNL再分析资料,结合高分辨率中尺度数值模式WRF对杭州湾地区2016年7月28日一次海风锋触发雷暴天气的发生、发展演变特征进行数值模拟。结果表明:1)海风锋是此次强雷暴天气过程的主要触发系统。2)中尺度模式WRF较好地模拟出此次雷暴过程的降水和低层风场、温度场分布以及海风锋水平垂直结构。3)海风锋对局地比湿及涡度特征的加强有明显的促进作用,为雷暴的发生发展提供有利的水汽和动力条件。4)分析对流参数演变曲线的突变位置,对雷暴发生的时间有一定的指示和预报意义,杭州湾南侧单纯的海风锋也可以触发雷暴的发生发展。     

青岛近海夏季海风特征及其预报方法研究

采用2003～2006年7～9月青岛以及沿海地区自动站资料、探空资料对青岛近海海风进行了统计分析.平均而言,青岛近海7～8月海风发生频率为30%～35%,9月海风发生频率为25%;海风开始时间平均为10:00～12:00,结束时间可以持续到18:00～19:00;海风在垂直方向上厚度为500～600 m左右.青岛近海海风的发生与否取决于青岛上空低层925 hPa风速大小、低层大气稳定度、海陆温差以及海平面气压差四方面的综合效应.通常,925 hPa风速达到8 m/s,系统风较强时不利于海风建立;当低层大气不稳定时,有利于触发海风环流的建立;海陆温差达到4 ℃以上时,青岛近海易出现海风;此外,当地转风为离岸风时,海阳站或日照站与青岛本站08:00时海平面气压差>1 hPa时,当日一般不会出现海风.综合以上预报因子及其指标,通过建立逻辑回归模型,初步实现了夏季青岛近海海风能否发生的客观预报,并在2007年举行的国际帆船赛期间得到了应用.