On the joint robust estimation of parameters and variance

A method of joint estimation of the parameters and the variance σ² in the linear model is presented in this paper. The M-estimators with finite rejection points are adopted for estimating the parameters. In order to estimate the variance σ², the Grubbs statistics and the Kurtosis test statistics are adopted to test the residual sequence {;r_i};. And the sample variance of {;r_i}; after discarding the outliers is taken as the estimation of σ². This method of estimating σ² is less computational demanding and more accurate, compared with the well-known method which takes 1.483 med_i |r_i| as the estimation of σ. The breakdown point of the above estimation of σ² is more than 20%, while the brekdown point is less than 10%, if only the Grubbs statistics is used.     

应用三轴风速仪研究成都平原大气扩散参数及结果分析

本文介绍了应用三轴风速仪测试大气扩散参数的方法和原理,计算了成都平原大气扩散参数,并对其结果进行了分析,提出了本地区应用三轴风速仪可以代替平衡球的依据,并对三轴法的优缺点进行了评价。指出了以往将静风与有风时处理混为一起的不合理性。     

Kinetics of the reactions of hydroxyl radicals with aliphatic ethers studied under simulated atmospheric conditions: Temperature dependences of the rate coefficients

Rate coefficients have been measured for the reactions of hydroxyl radicals with five aliphatic ethers over the temperature range 242–328 K. Competitive studies were carried out in an atmospheric flow reactor in which the hydroxyl radicals were generated by the photolysis of methyl nitrite in the presence of air containing nitric oxide. The reaction of OH with 2,3-dimethyl-butane was used as the reference reaction and the following Arrhenius parameters have been obtained for the reactions: OH+RORproducts:

Source parameters of some large earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean region based on an itertive maximum entropy technique

TeleseismicP-waves of some large earthquakes that occurred in the eastern Mediterranean region have been analysed by using an iterative maximum entropy technique in order to obtain the independent spectral parameters, the long-period spectral level ₀ and the corner frequencyf ₀ of the far-field displacement spectra.Based on these parameters, the seismic source parameters seismic momentM ₀, source dimensionr, fault lengthl, average displacement u, shear stress drop , radiated energyE _s and apparent stressn are calculated for the considered earthquakes by using Brune's and Madariaga's models.The striking feature of the source parameters obtained in this study is the low stress drop value which varies between 5 and 15 bars. If Madariaga's model had been used, higher stress drop values would have been obtained.The low stress drop earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean region might be interpreted either by the possible presence of low strength material near the source or by the partial stress drop model.     

A New Sensitivity Analysis Approach Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Its Preliminary Application

Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties, and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important sources. It is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by reducing the uncertainties of all parameters. Therefore, identifying the sensitive parameters or parameter combinations is crucial. This study proposes a novel approach: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity analysis(CNOPSA) method. The CNOPSA method fully consi...     

Rupture line and damage effects in Aqaba area, Egypt

Strong-motion parameters, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and peak ground displacement depend on several factors, such as the source of earthquake, distance between the source and site, and the characteristics of that site. Five seismographs and two accelographs were installed by the Egyptian Geological Survey team along the western side of the Gulf of Aqaba from Taba to Sharm El-Sheikh to record seismic events during the period from September 1995 to June 1996. During this period, two events were recorded by the accelographs. The two accelographs were located on the surface of the basement rocks, the first near the epicenter and the second at a farther distance. However, the farthest accelograph recorded higher values compared to the nearer one. Fault mechanics are an important factor in determining the values of strong motion parameters, where the direction of the rupture line plays an important role in detecting the values of strong motion parameters, the strong motion parameters and damage effects seem to be attenuated very fast in the direction perpendicular to the rupture line. This can be interpreted by the fact that the farthest accelograph lies at the extension of the fault rupture (azimuth = 30°), while the nearer one was perpendicular to the strike of the fault rupture.     

Source parameters of the ML 4.1 earthquake of November 08, 2006, southeast Beni-Suef, northern Egypt

In the early morning hours on Wednesday November 08, 2006 at 04:32:10(GMT) a small earthquake of M_L 4.1 has occurred at southeast Beni-Suef, approximately 160 km SEE of Cairo, northern Egypt. The quake has been felt as far as Cairo and its surroundings while no casualties were reported. The instrumental epicentre is located at 28.57°N and 31.55°E. Seismic moment is 1.76 E14 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude M_w 3.5. Following a Brune model, the source radius is 0.3 km with an average dislocation of 1.8 cm and a 2.4 MPa stress drop. The source mechanism from a first motion fault plane solution shows a left-lateral strike-slip mechanism with a minor dip-slip component along fault NNW striking at 161°, dipping 52° to the west and rake −5°. Trend and plunging of the maximum and minimum principle axes P/T are 125°, 28°, 21°, and 23°, respectively. A comparison with the mechanism of the October, 1999 event shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes.Eight small earthquakes (3.0  M_L < 5.0) were also recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) from the same region. We estimate the source parameters and fault mechanism solutions (FMS) for these earthquakes using displacement spectra and P-wave polarities, respectively. The obtained source parameters including seismic moments of 4.9 × 10¹²–5.04 × 10¹⁵ Nm, stress drops of 0.2–4.9 MPa and relative displacement of 0.1–9.1 cm. The azimuths of T-axes determined from FMS are oriented in NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field in Egypt and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS measurements.     

Fuzzy logic modeling of the resistivity parameter and topography features for aquifer assessment in hydrogeological investigation of a crystalline basement complex

A linguistic fuzzy logic system (LFLS)-based expert system model has been developed for the assessment of aquifers for the location of productive water boreholes in a crystalline basement complex. The model design employed a multiple input/single output (MISO) approach with geoelectrical parameters and topographic features as input variables and control crisp value as the output. The application of the method to the data acquired in Khondalitic terrain, a basement complex in Vizianagaram District, south India, shows that potential groundwater resource zones that have control output values in the range 0.3295–0.3484 have a yield greater than 6,000 liters per hour (LPH). The range 0.3174–0.3226 gives a yield less than 4,000 LPH. The validation of the control crisp value using data acquired from Oban Massif, a basement complex in southeastern Nigeria, indicates a yield less than 3,000 LPH for control output values in the range 0.2938–0.3065. This validation corroborates the ability of control output values to predict a yield, thereby vindicating the applicability of linguistic fuzzy logic system in siting productive water boreholes in a basement complex.     

岩土力学数值模拟结果的概率评估方法研究

提出了一种用于评估多参数随机变异情况下岩土力学非线性数值模拟结果可靠性的多维高效直接积分型随机分析方法.它首先根据多维积分理论和可靠性分析的直接积分法确定多维随机输入参数的计值点;然后利用非线性数值模拟方法,比如有限元法或有限差分法等,完成所有计值点上的计算任务,据此就可以利用多维高效积分程序计算待评估响应量的前几阶矩(一般包括1～6阶矩);最后利用多种方法,包括曲线拟合法、加权余量法及最大熵法计算响应量的概率分布,并据此算出响应量的概率置信区间,用于定量评估响应量的可靠性.数值算例表明,此法具有精度和计算效率较高的优点.