模糊综合评判在地球化学异常评价中的应用

对云南省元江中上游1:5万土壤测量所圈定的20个地球化学异常进行了模糊综合评判,其中甲类异常正确评判率为100%,其它几个综合评判值较大的异常经查证均发现了不同规模的矿床(点),为研究区异常的筛选和评价提供了一种较为可靠的方法.     

2002年12月14日玉门5.9级地震现场趋势判断及其思考

介绍了2002年12月14日甘肃玉门5．9级地震发生后，笔在地震现场对这次地震震后趋势的判断工作和依据。讨论了地震现场震后趋势判断工作的特殊性、科学性和社会性结合问题．     

深水港港址选择的定量综合评价

深水港港址选择涉及自然、经济、技术、社会与区域、环境保护、供应、军事、国家安全和政治等多因素，为使深水港港址选择更具科学性，需进行定量综合评价。由于深水港港址选择的复杂性、不确定性和界限的模糊性，本文主要推荐模糊综合评判法，并以舟山市３０～３５万吨级深水港址的选择为例。     

A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km³ of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event.     

模糊综合评判在测绘产品质量评定中应用程序设计研究

应用模糊综合评判原理,建立适合测绘产品质量评定的数学模型,在软件的支持下,通过计算机运算,输出可量化的评定结果。     

X射线粉晶衍射仪在山东蒙阴金伯利岩蚀变矿物鉴定中的应用

山东蒙阴金伯利岩组成矿物以蚀变矿物为主,X射线粉晶衍射仪鉴定结果显示无矿金伯利岩矿物组分为方解石、白云石、石英、钙锆钛矿,标志性矿物为白云石和钙锆钛矿;贫矿金伯利岩矿物组分为蛇纹石、方解石、钙铝榴石、磁铁矿和金云母,标志性矿物为钙铝榴石;富矿金伯利岩矿物组分为蛇纹石、方解石、绿泥石、磷灰石、磁铁矿和金云母,标志性矿物为绿泥石和磷灰石。采用X射线粉晶衍射仪鉴定金伯利岩蚀变矿物组合,寻找蚀变矿物组分变化与金伯利岩含矿性的关系,利用标志性的蚀变矿物判断金伯利岩无矿、贫矿还是富矿,是非常有意义的。     

Hydrochemical indexes of seawater intrusion and comprehensive judgement on intrusive degree

１ＴＨＥＨＹＤＲＯＣＨＥＭＩＣＡＬＩＮＤＥＸＥＳＦＯＲＴＨＥＪＵＤＧＥＭＥＮＴＯＮＳＥＡＷＡＴＥＲＩＮＴＲＵＳＩＯＮＴｈｅｈｙｄｒｏｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｉｓｔｈｅｄｉｒｅｃｔｂａｓｉｓｆｏｒｔｈｅｊｕｄｇｅｍｅｎｔｏｎｓｅａ...     

单桩水平静载试验及成果参数取值问题初探

运用桩在水平荷载下的工作性状、地基土水平抗力系数的比例系数的影响因素及其变化趋势来辅助判释单桩水平载荷试验的成果参数,结合工程实例给出了实用的判释方法.当临界荷载接近极限荷载时,应运用以承载力和变形综合确定单桩水平承载力设计值.     

新形势下的会计职业判断

会计的过程就是会计判断的过程,会计职业判断贯穿于会计的确认、计量、记录和报告的全过程。随着我国加入WTO和市场经济的全球化,新颁布的企业会计准则为会计带来了更大的机遇与挑战,要求会计人员必须运用职业判断对经济事项作出恰当处理,以提供更可靠、更相关、更有价值的会计信息。文章探讨了会计职业判断的现状、影响因素,并对新形势下改善会计职业判断质量的途径提出了建议。     

矿井地质构造定量评价模型探讨

分析了应用于矿井地质构造定量评价的数学方法的研究现状及其优缺点,论述了灰色模糊综合评判和分形理论的基本原理和操作方法,提出了将断层分维值作为模糊综合评判的评价因子对矿井地质构造进行定量评价的新思路。