上海天文台2010年工作总结

总结了2010年度中国科学院上海天文台在科研、国际合作交流、人才培养和引进、佘山科技园区建设、科研管理、精神文明建设等方面取得的成果。     

国际地球自转服务(IERS)评介

回顾了建立国际地球自转服务(IERS)的历史过程,简述了IERS机构各部门的设置及其作用。着重介绍了IERS重建的理由和过程以及新IERS机构的组成。最后给出IERS成果对现有科学研究的作用和意义。     

美国人权措施对中美贸易的消极影响及对策

WTO多边贸易体制倡导自由贸易。WTO成员之间应当削减或取消一切贸易壁垒,共同承担多边自由贸易的义务。美国根据国内贸易法采取的人权措施具有单边性、任意性并且暴露了此类贸易限制或禁止措施的霸权主义本质。美国人权措施引发了诸多贸易争端,严重挑战自由贸易精神。美国对华实施人权措施造成我国对美出口遭遇不利影响。我国应从革新外贸立法理念、增设人权措施条款并适度运用人权措施等方面积极应对此类新型贸易壁垒。     

Accessibility for High Asia： Comparative Perspectives on Northern Pakistan＇s Traffic Infrastructure and Linkages with Its Neighbours in the Hindukush-Karakoram- Himalaya

Starting with a discussion of development concepts which were applied in practice and which followed the developmentalist paradigm the expansion of traffic infrastructure in colonial and post-colonial periods is presented for the High Asian mountain rim. Selective railways and roads are the major feature of this development, which aimed first on serving the convenience of hill station visitors and followed strategic considerations later on. This bias between regional planning and implementation remains a characteristic feature. At the same time traffic infrastructure without asphalt roads is important for the mountain areas, thus breaking up the strong correlation between development and asphalt roads.     

中国城市网络核心-边缘结构演化及影响因素研究——基于制造业企业网络视角

基于制造业企业网络视角的城市网络核心—边缘结构的研究将加深对城市网络演化规律的理解。利用2020年中国制造业500强企业网络数据和隶属联系模型构建城市网络,研究了中国城市网络核心—边缘结构的演化特征,定量测度了核心—边缘结构的影响因素,并根据国际生产折衷理论解析了城市网络地位分异的动力机制。研究发现: 2005—2020年,核心区块的城市数量逐渐增加,主要由直辖市、经济特区以及东、中部地区的省会城市组成,这些城市通过互惠性的链接关系形成了凝聚子群,网络权力较为集中;边缘区块的城市则主要位于中、西部地区,城市间经济联系相对稀疏,整体网络结构并不稳定,城市的发展受到了网络资本的约束。关键资源、基础设施和区位优势是影响中国城市网络地位的决定性因素,择优选择、网络邻近和路径依赖构成了中国城市网络核心—边缘结构演化的动力机制,这将进一步增强核心城市的网络地位。在网络环境下,城市间的差距趋于扩大,城市网络地位的提升取决于城市在网络中的影响力,中国城市化政策需要做出相应调整。     

Environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations in mid-eastern provinces and cities of China

The studies on environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations are helpful to design and implement environmental protection countermeasures.In order to eliminate the adverse effects of insufficient observation values on the accuracy of regression results and dynamic information quantity of fitting equation during empirical study,panel data of the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China from 1985 to 2007 were selected based on the adjustment of classical regression model in this paper.Panel unit root test and panel cointegration analysis method were applied to investigating the environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China and its three groups divided by foreign trade dependence.The results show that all scale effects are positive,while all technical effects are negative and unable to counteract positive scale effects.Foreign trade development is regarded as an important cause for outstanding eco-environmental problems in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China.Total effects and structural effects are significantly different among different groups because of spatial variations in environmental policies,export destinations,source of FDI,etc.Following the principle of′coordinating generality and considering differences comprehensively′,it is essential to issue a series of policies and countermeasures corresponding to differences in regional environmental effect of foreign trade,in order to coordinate the relationship between foreign trade development and eco-environment in each region.     

GDELT数据网络化挖掘与国际关系分析

21世纪以来的国际关系错综复杂、瞬息万变,给世界的经济、安全、外交等带来了深刻变化。这些变化对中国的内外政策产生了重大影响。全面及时地分析国际关系及其变化特征,对于中国的经济和外交发展规划具有重要参考价值。国际关系研究具有复杂性、及时性、时空性等特点,迫切需要时空大数据分析技术为其提供新的思路和技术手段。大众媒体如报纸、广播等记录着世界上发生的各种各样的事件,蕴含着丰富的信息,相对于记录个人活动的社交媒体数据,其更加适合于对人类社会进行大规模和长时间的分析。GDELT是一个免费开放的新闻数据库,它实时监测世界上印刷、广播、网络媒体中的新闻,对其进行文本分析并提取出人物、地点、组织和事件等关键信息。本文利用复杂网络的理论和方法对GDELT进行网络化挖掘并进一步分析国家关系。首先利用该数据构建国家交互网络,然后通过网络特征统计分析国家之间的交互关系,最后探测国家冲突事件交互网络的时序变化。研究发现：① 国家交互网络具有无标度特性,网络连接在整体和局部上都呈现出不均匀性,少数国家与其他国家有大量交互,大多数国家与其他国家的交互很少;一个国家与少数国家有大量交互,而与大多数国家的交互很少。② 国家冲突事件交互网络的突然变化往往对应一些重大事件。本文的研究可以为大数据时代的国际关系探索提供一个新的视角,同时也为新闻媒体数据的分析提供参考。     

Fish Assemblage Responses to a Low-head Dam Removal in the Lancang River

Dam removal is becoming an effective approach for aquatic biodiversity restoration in damming river in order to balance the aquatic ecosystem conservation with large-scale cascade damming. However, the effects of dam removal on fish communities in Asian mountainous rivers, which are dominated by Cypriniformes fishes, are still not well known. To determine whether dam removal on a mountainous river benefit restoration of fish diversity, we investigated the response of fish assemblage to dam removal using a before-after-control-impact design in two tributaries of the Lancang River(dam removal river: the Jidu River, and control river: the Fengdian River). Fish surveys were conducted one year prior to dam removal(2012) and three years(2013–2015) following dam removal. We observed rapidly and notably spatio-temporal changes in fish biodiversity metrics and assemblage structure, occurring in the Jidu River within the first year after dam removal. Overall, fish species richness, density and Shannon-Wiener diversity all increased immediately in above-and below-dam sites, and maintained a stable level in subsequent years, compared to unchanged situation in the control river. All sites in the Jidu River experienced shifts in fish composition after dam removal, with the greatest temporal changes occurred in sites below-and above-the former dam, resulting in a temporal homogenization tendency in the dam removed river. These findings suggest that dam removal can benefit the recovery of habitat conditions and fish community in Asian mountainous rivers, but the results should be further evaluated when apply to other dammed rivers since the dam age, fluvial geomorphology and situation of source populations could all affect the responses of fish assemblages.     

上海天文台2004年度的科研工作

简要回顾了中国科学院上海天文台2004年科研及相关工作情况。     

全球原油贸易网络视角下的亚洲溢价与中日印韩原油潜在竞争关系

随着全球原油贸易关系的复杂化和亚洲原油需求的上升,全球能源市场的“亚洲溢价”现象成为需要关注的议题。本文基于全球石油贸易网络复杂性视角,选取1993—2018年国际原油贸易数据进行样本数据考察,通过构建复杂网络模型和潜在竞争指数,对全球原油贸易网络中的亚洲溢价现象和中日印韩四国潜在竞争力进行分析。结果表明：全球原油贸易集团分化交融,中日印韩呈现出贸易集团化的趋势。从全球原油贸易网络指标来看,中日印韩四国在全球原油贸易网络地位和影响力不断提升,有力推动了全球原油消费中心向亚太地区转移。潜在竞争指数表明,中国与日本、印度、韩国的潜在原油竞争关系呈现出不同特征,中日表现出“先强后弱”的特点,而中印、中韩表现为整体持续增强的特征。