全球锑原材料贸易格局演化分析

随着中国锑矿产量下降以及全球新能源领域对锑需求量的增加, 全球锑原材料供需格局正在改变。对全球锑原材料贸易格局的现状及演化过程开展分析, 有助于世界各国构建弹性的锑原材料供应链。本文基于物质流与复杂网络分析方法, 定量刻画了四类锑原材料(锑矿石、锑金属、锑初级加工品、再生锑)的全球贸易格局(2002—2020年), 分析了典型国家(地区)的锑原材料贸易结构及贸易地位变化特征, 总结了贸易格局的演化规律。研究发现: (1)锑初级加工品是全球最主要的贸易品种, 其贸易量占全球锑原材料总贸易量的一半以上; (2)中国和美国分别是贸易地位排名前两位的国家, 印度、欧盟、韩国是贸易地位上升最快三个国家(地区); (3)欧盟锑金属的进口来源呈现明显的多元化趋势, 显著降低了对中国的进口依赖, 表明欧盟近些年实施的关键原材料多元化进口战略取得了显著成效; (4)中国在全球锑原材料供应格局中的绝对优势地位在下降, 与此同时, 全球锑原材料贸易格局正朝着更加多元的方向发展。     

萤石典型产品国际贸易竞争格局演变

萤石作为一种重要的非金属战略性矿产资源,受到各国(地区)的高度重视。由于全球萤石资源储量有限、分布不均,萤石产品的供需矛盾不断增强,激化了萤石资源进出口之间的竞争。本文主要研究了萤石资源国际贸易,以无机氟化工产业链为切入点,选取酸级萤石、电子级氢氟酸、六氟磷酸锂为研究对象,运用复杂网络方法,构建了2000—2020年全球萤石产品进口竞争网络,分析其格局、演变特征,国家(地区)间竞争特点以及中国萤石产品的竞争状况。结果发现:全球萤石产品之间的竞争越来越激烈,各阶段的累积度分布都遵循幂律分布。竞争强度占比前20%的国家(地区)显示出更直观的集中化趋势。近20年来美国一直是酸级萤石进口竞争的矛盾中心。电子级氢氟酸和六氟磷酸锂的进口竞争网络的核心国家(地区)是不断演变的。建议中国等萤石资源储量丰富的国家(地区),合理规划萤石产业,优化萤石资源供需格局、促进萤石产业健康可持续发展。     

鄂尔多斯盆地庆城地区延长组7段致密油特征及油源分析

鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组7段(长7段)半深湖—深湖相优质油源岩是油气的重要来源,包括黑色页岩和暗色泥岩,作为盆地重要的供烃源岩一直是研究的热点。为了明确不同烃源岩的贡献及油气来源,通过对庆城地区长7段致密油特征进行分析,对原油进行精细划分,并对源岩有效性进行分析,进一步明确油源对应关系,研究表明,庆城地区长7段黑色页岩和暗色泥岩均对油气成藏有贡献,其中黑色页岩贡献最大,长7₃段暗色泥岩次之,长7₂和长7₁段暗色泥岩贡献较小;原油为低密度、中—低黏度和低凝固点的轻质油。根据生标物特征将原油划分为3类,A类原油具有低C₃₀重排藿烷/C₂₉藿烷、低C₂₉Ts/C₂₉藿烷、低Ts/Tm的特征,由黑色页岩贡献,主要分布于长7₁段;C类原油具有高C₃₀重排藿烷/C₂₉藿烷、高C₂₉Ts/C₂₉藿烷、高Ts/Tm的特征,主要由暗色泥岩贡献,...     

矿用钻孔超声流量自适应检测技术

为了更好地实现煤矿井下瓦斯抽采钻孔端流量监测,针对管路内介质成分复杂、纯净度差、稳定性差等因素对抽采流量参数测量准确性影响的问题,提出以时差法为测量原理,以双阈值比较法为检测方法,设计了一套矿用钻孔超声流量自适应检测系统。通过分析影响双阈值比较法测量准确性的关键问题出发,设计了检测系统的总体方案,并对其中激励信号放大电路、接收信号调理电路及由峰值检波电路与增益控制电路构成的自适应电路几项关键模块进行了详细地介绍,叙述了检测系统运行软件的工作流程。通过工况环境适应能力测试与准确度性能检验,对检测系统的功能与性能进行了检验,检验结果表明,该系统能够适应瓦斯抽采钻孔管路内的工况需求,实现高精度的气体流量测量。      

形变监测高分辨率InSAR数据的精度分析

收集江苏高分辨率InSAR地面沉降监测结果及兴化、淮安同期水准测量资料和基岩标同期监测资料,利用79个水准点测量数据、7个基岩标（分别选取不同时段）测量数据共98个数据样本,将InSAR技术与水准测量及基岩标测量技术的监测结果进行对比发现,监测结果一致性率为86.73%,平均差值为2.08 mm,标准差为2.50 mm,最大差值为18.64 mm,表明InSAR可进行半定量形变监测,但在高层建筑、排水管线、大坝、桥梁等需高精度形变监测的工程方面仍不能替代水准测量。     

新疆小于赞金矿流体包裹体分析及与加曼特和阿希金矿的比较

新疆小于赞金矿床石英中存在富液相气液两相包裹体、富气相气液两相包裹体和纯液相包裹体。包裹体均一温度为108~237℃,主要集中在130~180℃。测得的冰点温度范围为-0.1~-6℃,对应的盐度为0.18~9.21 wt%Na Cleqv,密度范围在0.82~1.04 g/cm3,在分析的过程中所测得的数据包括均一温度、冰点温度以及密度都在较低值区域分布。通过阿希金矿、加曼特金矿进行了系统的比较分析,认为小于赞金矿可能属于中低温低盐度低密度热液型矿床。     

清末耕地空间分布格局重建方法比较

揭示历史时期土地利用/覆盖变化是认识人类活动对气候和环境影响的基础。本文在耕地面积、人口数量、土地利用及森林分布等多源数据基础上,分别以近代耕地空间分布格局和历史时期耕地潜在分布区为边界条件,通过构建耕地垦殖倾向指数模型分配耕地面积,在1 km×1 km象元尺度上重建了清末(1908年)松嫩平原耕地空间格局,并对重建结果进行分析比较。结果表明:1两种方法重建的耕地空间分布范围格局基本一致,耕地空间定位吻合率约为68%。清末(1908年)耕地集中分布在松嫩平原东部和南部地区;2以历史时期耕地潜在分布为边界条件的重建结果,较以近代耕地空间分布格局为限制范围的重建结果更准确,更符合历史事实。     

Implementing adaptation in developed countries: an analysis of progress and trends

Little attention has been paid thus far to the experiences of developed countries in adapting to climate change. This article addresses this research gap by providing an assessment of broad trends in progress on planning and implementing adaptation in developed countries. Primary inputs are the National Communications (NCs) by these countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), although the article also discusses illustrative examples of recent adaptation activities that have not been covered in the NCs. NCs reflect ‘whole government’ perspectives and follow a standardized reporting format, which facilitates cross-national comparisons. The analysis shows that impacts and adaptation receive limited attention within NCs. The discussion on impacts and adaptation has typically been dominated by climate scenarios and impacts analysis, while the discussion on adaptation is often limited to the identification of generic options. There are signs of recent progress, however, in the Third and especially the Fourth NCs, in which a growing number of developed countries report on establishing frameworks for adaptation and on efforts to implement adaptation measures that take future climate into account. Although an encouraging sign, it is still too early to assess the eventual impact of such measures.     

Delivering the two degree global climate change target using a flexible ratchet framework

Global climate negotiations have been characterized by a divide between developed and developing nations – a split which has served as a persistent barrier to international agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. Notable progress in bridging this division was achieved at the 21st Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris through the introduction of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). However, the collective ambition of submitted INDCs falls short of a global 2°C target, requiring an effective ratchet mechanism to review and increase national commitments. Inequitable distribution of additional responsibilities risks re-opening historic divisions between parties. This article presents a flexible ratchet framework which shares mitigation commitments on the basis of per capita equity in line with emerging requirements for a 2°C target. The framework has been designed through convergence between developed and developing nations; developed nation targets are based on an agreed standardized percentage reduction wherever emissions are above per capita equity; developing nations are required to peak emissions at or below per capita equity levels by an agreed convergence date. The proposed framework has the flexibility to be integrated with current INDCs and to evolve in line with shifting estimates of climate sensitivity.

Policy relevance

The outcome of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) negotiations in Paris offered mixed results in terms of level of ambition and submitted national commitments. A global agreement to keep average global temperature rise below two degrees was maintained; however, current pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are projected to result in an average warming of close to three degrees. The implementation of a global ratchet mechanism to scale-up national commitments will remain key to closing this ambition gap to reach this two degree target. How this upscaling of responsibility is shared between parties will be a defining discussion point within future negotiations. This study presents a standardized, equity-based framework for how this ratchet mechanism can be implemented – a framework designed to be flexible for evolution in line with better understanding of climate sensitivity, and adaptable for integrations with current INDC proposals.