Assessing the temporal variance of evapotranspiration considering climate and catchment storage factors

Understanding the temporal variance of evapotranspiration (ET) at the catchment scale remains a challenging task, because ET variance results from the complex interactions among climate, soil, vegetation, groundwater and human activities. This study extends the framework for ET variance analysis of Koster and Suarez (1999) by incorporating the water balance and the Budyko hypothesis. ET variance is decomposed into the variance/covariance of precipitation, potential ET, and catchment storage change. The contributions to ET variance from those components are quantified by long-term climate conditions (i.e., precipitation and potential ET) and catchment properties through the Budyko equation. It is found that climate determines ET variance under cool-wet, hot-dry and hot-wet conditions; while both catchment storage change and climate together control ET variance under cool-dry conditions. Thus the major factors of ET variance can be categorized based on the conditions of climate and catchment storage change. To demonstrate the analysis, both the inter- and intra-annul ET variances are assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin, and it is found that the framework corrects the over-estimation of ET variance in the arid basin. This study provides an extended theoretical framework to assess ET temporal variance under the impacts from both climate and storage change at the catchment scale.     

Spatial and temporal distribution of large volcanic eruptions from 1750 to 2010

Using the dataset provided by the Smithsonian Institution＇s Global Volcanism Program, we have extracted the large volcanic eruptions（volcanic explosivity index ≥ 4） from the period 1750–2010 and have then analyzed the main characteristics of large volcanic eruptions since 1750 according to their geographic latitudes, their elevations, and the years and months in which they occurred. The results show that most large volcanic eruptions were located around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the islands of Sumatra and Java, especially in the equatorial regions（10°N–10°S）. Large volcanic eruptions were concentrated at 1000–2000 m elevations and in the months of January and April. There were more eruptions in the summer half-year（from April to September） than in the winter half-year（from October to the next March）. Large volcanic eruptions have interdecadal fluctuations, including cycles of 15–25 years and 35–50 years, which were detected by Morlet wavelet analysis, with the fluctuations being more frequent after 1870 than before. During the periods 1750–1760, 1776–1795, 1811–1830, 1871–1890, 1911–1920 and 1981–1995, there were relatively many large volcanic eruptions.     

Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2009, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.     

An efficient method for selecting and scaling ground motions matching target response spectrum mean and variance

The purpose of this study is to propose an accurate and efficient method for selecting and scaling ground motions matching target response spectrum mean and variance, which does not require excessive computation and simulation. In the proposed method, a desired number of ground motions are sequentially scaled and selected from a ground motion library without iterations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广东省区域经济差异的方向及影响机制

区域差异已成为中国经济高速增长背后的一大隐忧,如何实现区域经济协调发展是中国经济社会发展的核心议题,也是近年来国内外研究的热点命题。基于“最优尺度-总体趋势-差异方向-机制因素”的框架,综合运用传统总体差异指数、尺度方差及其分解、特定方向差异指数（PDI 指数）和多水平回归分析对1978-2011 年广东省区域经济差异进行了综合测度和分析。研究表明：① 尺度方差及其构成大小依次排列为县级、地级和区级,即尺度越小,尺度方差越大,对区域经济差异的贡献份额也越大。② 自改革开放以来,广东区域经济总体差异呈增大趋势,并出现波动性变化。③ 广东区域经济空间差异的主要方向是珠三角核心区与边缘地区之间,核心区与边缘区的差距扩大,省内沿海地区与内陆地区的差异微弱上升,市区与外围区的差异缩小。④ 全球化、简政放权、投资水平和市场化是导致区域经济差异的最重要的四个机制因素;全球化和投资是促进区域经济差异加剧的重要直接驱动力,简政放权则间接促进了区域经济差异的变大,而市场化能够潜在地促进区域平衡发展,缓和区域经济差异。     

���ھ���ģʽ�ֽ��CORSվ�߳�ʱ�����з���

???????????????????GPS??????????????????????????????CORS???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????о??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????壻??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????     

近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布(英文)

Based on the drought/flood grades of 90 meterological stations over eastern China and summer average sea-level pressure (SLP) during 1850–2008 and BPCCA statistical methods, the coupling relationship between the drought/flood grades and the East Asian summer SLP is analyzed. The East Asian summer monsoon index which is closely related with interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution over eastern China is defined by using the key areas of SLP. The impact of the interdecadal variation of the East Asi...     

The choice of the spherical radial basis functions in local gravity field modeling

The choice of the optimal spherical radial basis function (SRBF) in local gravity field modelling from terrestrial gravity data is investigated. Various types of SRBFs are considered: the point-mass kernel, radial multipoles, Poisson wavelets, and the Poisson kernel. The analytical expressions for the Poisson kernel, the point-mass kernel and the radial multipoles are well known, while for the Poisson wavelet new closed analytical expressions are derived for arbitrary orders using recursions. The performance of each SRBF in local gravity field modelling is analyzed using real data. A penalized least-squares technique is applied to estimate the gravity field parameters. As follows from the analysis, almost the same accuracy of gravity field modelling can be achieved for different types of the SRBFs, provided that the depth of the SRBFs is chosen properly. Generalized cross validation is shown to be a suitable technique for the choice of the depth. As a good alternative to generalized cross validation, we propose the minimization of the RMS differences between predicted and observed values at a set of control points. The optimal regularization parameter is determined using variance component estimation techniques. The relation between the depth and the correlation length of the SRBFs is established. It is shown that the optimal depth depends on the type of the SRBF. However, the gravity field solution does not change significantly if the depth is changed by several km. The size of the data area (which is always larger than the target area) depends on the type of the SRBF. The point-mass kernel requires the largest data area.     

PCBs in fish from the southern Baltic Sea: levels, bioaccumulation features, and temporal trends during the period from 1997 to 2006

Levels of seven marker polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been determined in five species of Baltic fish collected during 1997-2006. Downward time trends in the concentrations of heavier congeners of PCBs in different Baltic fish, with the exception of cod, have been observed between 1997 and 2001. In case of sprat and herring samples, the statistical significance of the time trends of the PCBs: 101, 118, 153, 138 and 180 concentrations has been proved. Species-specific bioaccumulation of PCBs has been indicated, and the lowest and highest levels of PCBs (expressed on the basis of lipid weight) have been observed in sprat and salmon samples, respectively. PCB profiles have been found to be similar in all the fish species tested. Sampling location has not been a crucial factor for the observed levels of various PCBs. In some fish species, PCB concentrations are negatively correlated with the fat content but have no relation with the fish length.