碳酸盐岩储层缝洞发育带预测:以塔河油田为例

塔河油田碳酸盐岩为古岩溶喀斯特化与受后期构造叠置改造的孔、洞、缝等组成的非均质储层,储层具有规模不同、空间形态不规则、充填性质各异的复杂组合特征以此为对象通过分解地震波场不同特征信号,开发了一系列针对不同储层目标的叠前叠后地震预测技术,不同特征地震预测结果经综合叠置验证分析,实现了残丘体上叠置的孔、洞、缝及古地貌的精细刻画及表征,展示了缝洞空间纵横交错的叠置关系,提高了复杂储层空间展布规律的认识及精确定位。     

鄂尔多斯盆地北部黄土沙漠区隐蔽薄气层预测

长庆油田公司针对黄土沙漠区低孔、低渗、薄气藏的地震目标处理,经过多年的探索与实践,已形成了一套适合该类气藏特点的储层横向预测技术。在榆林、乌审旗、苏里格庙和神木等地区的上古生界天然气勘探、开发阶段取得了显著效果,使长庆油田上古生界天然气储量连续八年保持稳定增长。本文详细剖析了该技术的应用效果及经验。     

几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

一个基于中尺度数值模式的城市分区空气污染预报方法

以深圳市为例，对污染物浓度与各种大气参数的定量联系进行了细致的统计及物理分析，在此基础上建立起分区的城市空气污染潜势等级预报方案。该方案定量考虑了地面和边界层共十几个因子的影响，特别是考虑了地理环境各向异性的效应，将风向作为一个独立的影响因子。方案还针对各污染物稀释特性的差异对不同污染物分别建立潜势预报方案。另外，方案还考虑了相同大气条件下大气对城市不同区域污染物稀释特性可能存在的差异，对不同区域分别建立潜势预报方案。最后用高分辨的中尺度数值模式对大气参数的未来演变作出高时空分辨的预报，进而作出分区、分时段的城市空气污染潜势预报。本方法完全客观定量，物理意义明确，可制作高时间分辨的空气污染潜势预报。     

基于小波分解的西太平洋副热带高压模糊推理预测

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了西太平洋副高脊线与其前期位置的相互关系,并在此基础上用小波分解和自适应模糊推理方法,对副高脊线进行集成建模和预测.基于小波分解重构的副高脊线短期活动集成预测结果表明,该方法可有效降低预报难度,明显改进和提高了副高脊线短期活动的预报准确率.     

Evaluating accuracy for two empirical methods in predicting settlement of drilled shafts

Several theoretical, empirical and semi-empirical methods are available in the literature to predict settlement of drilled shafts in sandy soils. In the Arabian Gulf countries, specifically in the United Arab Emirates, equations and procedure from the rest of the world are being used in analysis and design of drilled shafts without proper validation. It is the aim of this study to assess the applicability and evaluate the accuracy of two well known, and commonly used methods for pile prediction in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), namely Vesic (1977) and Poulos (1979), via comparison with data from field pile load tests conducted on shafts drilled in the region. Some of these tests were conducted for the purpose of this study, while others were made available through the courtesy of International Piling Contractors who are active in the region (e.g. Bauer International and Swiss Borings). Pile load test data were analyzed to back-calculate the model parameters related to settlement under different loading stages. Geological data and soil properties were obtained from studies conducted at the relevant sites. An effort is made to correlate soil properties with the prediction models. Statistical analysis is conducted to assess the accuracy of the results obtained from the two methods at different stages of loading via those obtained from pile load tests. Moreover, a detailed parametric study is conducted to assess the effect of the related parameters on the predicted pile settlement and the estimated settlement at different stages of loading. The study concluded with a recommendation of the most appropriate models and procedures to be followed for predicting the settlement of drilled shafts in the UAE, together with useful charts and correlation relations. Results showed that settlement values predicted by Vesic (1977) and Poulos (1979) overestimates the true values. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

GIS Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Water Systems in Greater Toronto Area, Canada

Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defmed from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into “drainage-area dependent“ and “drainage-area independent“ flow components by two-step “frequency“ and “spatial“ analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages. Various statistics (cross- and auto-correlation coefficients, fractal R/S exponent) were used in conjunction with GIS to demonstrate the influence of land types, topography and geometry of drainage basins on short- and long-term persistence of river flows as well as responding time to precipitation events. The current study has provided not only insight in understanding the interaction of water systems in the GTA, but also a base for further establishment of an on-line GIS system for predicting spatial-temporal changes of river flow and groundwater level in the GTA.     

一种利用测井资料预测岩石可钻性的计算机方法

介绍了一种利用测井资料快速求得岩石可钻性级值的计算机方法。该方法能够比较准确地预测岩石可钻性，快速做出连续的地层可钻性剖面图。室内微钻头可钻性试验和江汉油田现场应用验证表明：该系统具有比较高的可靠性，是可以投入油田现场应用的。     

西安市冬季冷暖的历史演变对采暖的影响

本文针对CAPPS2.0系统在业务化自动运行过程中的一些问题,提供了一套具体可行的解决方案,实现了CAPPS系统的全自动运行,具有很高的实用价值。     

Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia

The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia, The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.