1873～2000年东亚夏季风变化的研究

根据英国的海平面气压(SLP)资料计算了1873～1950年东亚夏季风指数(IsM)与用NCEP的SLP资料计算的1951～2000年IsM衔接,构成128年的IsM序列.用功率谱及子波变换方法分析了IsM的变化,指出80年周期最突出,其次尚有40年周期,8～10年周期及准2年周期.分析表明,夏季风弱时中国东部夏季气温低,降水自北向南为负、正、负分布.夏季风强时,气温偏高,降水异常为正、负、正分布.对年际变化而言,降水与夏季风的关系要复杂一些,至少副热带高压的变化对降水也有重要作用.     

碎石类土极限承载力标准值表的研究

以可靠度理论为基础的极限状态设计法是当今世界工程设计领域的发展趋势,地基基础要应用可靠度理论进行设计是一大难点,而地基极限承栽力标准值的确定是最重要的方面。利用原制订基本承载力时的荷载试验资料,再补充收集了一部分新资料,重新提出极限承载力,找出极限承栽力与基本承载力的关系值K(安全系数),将K值乘以基本承载力表,并以公式计算值及林业部标准进行比较。综合得出极限承载力范围值表,在此基础上进行概率分析,得出极限承载力标准值。通过直接或间接的方法求得极限承载力标准值变异系数。     

Seasonal-scale nearshore morphological evolution: Field observations and numerical modeling

A coupled waves–currents-bathymetric evolution model (DELFT-3D) is compared with field measurements to test hypotheses regarding the processes responsible for alongshore varying nearshore morphological changes at seasonal time scales. A 2001 field experiment, along the beaches adjacent to Grays Harbor, Washington, USA, captured the transition between the high-energy erosive conditions of winter and the low-energy beach-building conditions typical of summer. The experiment documented shoreline progradation on the order of 10–20 m and on average approximately 70 m of onshore sandbar migration during a four-month period. Significant alongshore variability was observed in the morphological response of the sandbar over a 4 km reach of coast with sandbar movement ranging from 20 m of offshore migration to over 175 m of onshore bar migration, the largest seasonal-scale onshore migration event observed in a natural setting. Both observations and model results suggest that, in the case investigated here, alongshore variations in initial bathymetry are primarily responsible for the observed alongshore variable morphological changes. Alongshore varying incident hydrodynamic forcing, occasionally significant in this region due to a tidal inlet and associated ebb-tidal delta, was relatively minor during the study period and appears to play an insignificant role in the observed alongshore variability in sandbar behavior at kilometer-scale. The role of fully three-dimensional cell circulation patterns in explaining the observed morphological variability also appears to be minor, at least in the case investigated here.     

Seasonal and Interannual Variability in the Distribution of Surface Nutrients and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Northern North Pacific: Influence of El Niño

The seasonal and interannual changes in surface nutrients, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) were recorded in the North Pacific (30–54°N) from 1995 to 2001. This study focuses on the region north of the subarctic boundary (∼40°N) where there was extensive monthly coverage of surface properties. The nutrient cycles showed large interannual variations in the eastern and western subarctic gyres. In the Alaska Gyre the seasonal depletion of nitrate (ΔNO₃) increased from 8–14 μmol kg⁻¹ in 1995–1999 to 21.5 μmol kg⁻¹ in 2000. In the western subarctic the shifts were similar in amplitude but more frequent. The large ΔNO₃ levels were associated with high silicate depletions, indicating enhanced diatom production. The seasonal DIC:NO₃ drawdown ratios were elevated in the eastern and central subarctic due to calcification. In the western subarctic and the central Bering Sea calcification was significant only during 1997 and/or 1998, two El Ni?o years. Regional C/N stoichiometric molar ratios of 5.7 to 7.0 (>40°N) were determined based on the years with negligible or no calcification. The annual new production (NP_a) based on ΔNO₃ and these C/N ratios showed large interannual variations. NP_a was usually higher in the western than in the eastern subarctic. However, values of 84 gC m⁻²yr⁻¹ were found in the Alaska Gyre in 2000 which is similar to that in the most productive provinces of the northern North Pacific. There were also large increases in NP_a around the Alaska Peninsula in 1997 and 1998. Finally, the net removal of carbon by the biological pump was estimated as 0.72 Gt C yr⁻¹ in the North Pacific (>30°N). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

GAMIL CliPAS试验对夏季西太平洋副高的预测

利用GAMIL CliPAS “两步法” 季度预测试验, 检验了后报的1980～1999年北半球夏季西太平洋副热带高压 (简称副高) 的年际变化, 检查了Seoul National University (SNU) 动力统计预测系统对SST预测准确度, 并讨论了影响中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室格点大气模式 (GAMIL) 对副高预测效果的可能原因。500 hPa位势高度可预报性指数表明西太平洋副高具有较高可预报性。集合平均基本能再现西太平洋副高的变率特征, 但最大方差的位置和强度与观测稍有区别。观测证据显示, 副高存在2～3年变率和3～5年变率, 且2～3年变率比3～5年变率强。GAMIL能够准确预测观测副高的3～5年变率, 尽管其强度要强于观测。这与试验所用的预测海温能够很好表现赤道中东太平洋 (5.5°S～5.5°N, 190.5°E～240.5°E) 海温的年际变率有关。同时, GAMIL预测的副高2～3年变率较之观测显著偏弱, 这可能与SNU预测的海洋大陆地区 (5.5°S～0.5°N, 110.5°E～130.5°E) SST的2～3年变率偏弱有关。分析表明, SNU预测海温的这种弱点, 与SNU海温统计预测模式所用的历史海温 (OISST) 本身对海洋大陆地区2～3年变率的刻画能力较弱有关。     

大气环状模对夏季中国大陆登陆热带气旋频数气候变化的影响

采用1949—2016年7—8月美国国家环境预报中心及大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料与中国气象局(CMA)上海台风所整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据集,研究大气环状模(Circumglobal Teleconnection,CGT)与中国大陆地区登陆热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)频数气候变化的关系。定义200 hPa经向风经验正交展开(EOF)的第一模态为CGT,其时间系数为环状模指数(Circumgolbal Teleconnection Index,CGTI)。CGT在北半球中纬度地区有5个异常中心,CGTI在1949—2016年呈明显的下降趋势,且存在一个2~3 a的周期振荡。CGT与大尺度环流异常存在密切的联系。研究表明:CGTI与中国大陆登陆TC频数气候变率具有显著的正相关,即CGTI表现为正异常时,登陆中国大陆的TC频数增加,反之减少。当CGT表现为正位相时,东亚副热带西风急流增强,急流南侧的反气旋切变增强,使TC登陆过程的活动区域200 hPa的辐散增强,此外,对流层高层Rossby波能量向南传播增强,形成波通量辐合,导致东风异常,产生了东风异常的引导气流和纬向风垂直切变,东风切变使得切变减小,增加了TC登陆中国大陆的可能性。     

Effects of bedrock groundwater discharge on spatial variability of dissolved carbon,nitrogen, and phosphorous concentrations in stream water within a forest headwater catchment

The quantitative evaluation of the effects of bedrock groundwater discharge on spatial variability of stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorous (DIP) concentrations has still been insufficient. We examined the relationships between stream DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations and bedrock groundwater contribution to stream water in forest headwater catchments in warm-humid climate zones. We sampled stream water and bedrock springs at multiple points in September and December 2013 in a 5 km² forest headwater catchment in Japan and sampled groundwater in soil layer in small hillslopes. We assumed that stream water consisted of four end members, groundwater in soil layer and three types of bedrock groundwater, and calculated the contributions of each end member to stream water from mineral-derived solute concentrations. DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations in stream water were compared with the calculated bedrock groundwater contribution. The bedrock groundwater contribution had significant negative linear correlation with stream DOC concentration, no significant correlation with stream DIN concentration, and significant positive linear correlation with stream DIP concentration. These results highlighted the importance of bedrock groundwater discharge in establishing stream DOC and DIP concentrations. In addition, stream DOC and DIP concentrations were higher and lower, respectively, than those expected from end member mixing of groundwater in soil layer and bedrock springs. Spatial heterogeneity of DOC and DIP concentrations in groundwater and/or in-stream DOC production and DIP uptake were the probable reasons for these discrepancies. Our results indicate that the relationships between spatial variability of stream DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations and bedrock groundwater contribution are useful for comparing the processes that affect stream DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations among catchments beyond the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological and biogeochemical processes within a catchment.     

河南省雨季降水时空变异特征分析

降水的时空变异分析是认识区域水资源形成与演变的重要方法。时空变异特征分析不仅可以系统地对降水的时间序列进行分析,而且能从空间上把握降水的分布格局。本文将河南省近51年雨季降水资料,结合数字高程模型(DEM),利用回归分析、空间自相关分析、空间插值模拟及交叉验证等,对河南省降水时空变异特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)河南省雨季降水整体来看呈增加趋势,近年来尤为明显;但9月份表现异常,呈下降趋势。(2)月降水量差异明显,最大降水量在7月份,平均达到178.3 mm;(3)在空间上降水呈现出明显的南多北少,东多西少的格局;有明显的集聚特点,在南部以罗山、潢川为中心形成降水丰沛聚集区,北部以辉县为中心形成降水稀少聚集区;林县、栾川和西峡表现为空间例外,明显高于相邻区域的降水量。     

Interannual variability of the Kuroshio intrusion in the South China Sea

The interannual variability of intrusions of the Kuroshio into the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated using satellite remote sensing data supported by in-situ measurements. The mesoscale circulation of the SCS is predominantly wind-forced by the northeast winter and southwest summer monsoons. Although the region has been studied extensively, considerable uncertainty remains about the annual and interannual mesoscale nature of the circulation. The frequency and characteristics of Kuroshio intrusions and their effect on circulation patterns in the northeast SCS are also not well understood. Satellite observations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA) from TOPEX/ Poseidon for the period 1997–2005 are used here to analyze the annual and interannual variability in Kuroshio intrusions and their effects on the region. Analysis of SST and SSHA shows the formation and characteristics of intrusions vary considerably each year. Typically, the intrusion occurs in the central region of Luzon Strait and results in an anticyclonic circulation in the northeastern SCS. However, in some years, the intrusion is located in the northern portion of Luzon Strait and a cyclonic intrusion results. Wind stress and wind stress curl derived from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) QuikSCAT satellite scatterometer are used to evaluate the relationship between wind stress or wind stress curl and the presence of winter Kuroshio intrusions into the SCS.     

Environmental effects on the recruitment variability of nursery species

The recruitment variability of the marine fish species Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus and Solea solea was evaluated in the Mondego estuary (Portugal) from 2003 to 2007. The relationships between sea surface temperature, NAO index, coastal wind speed and direction, precipitation and river runoff prior to the estuarine colonization and the abundance of 0-group fish were evaluated using gamma-based Generalized Linear Models. Dicentrarchus labrax and P. flesus 0-group decreased in abundance towards the end of the study period, while S. solea, despite low abundance in 2004, increased in abundance in 2007. For D. labrax, river runoff, precipitation and east–west wind were significant; for P. flesus, precipitation, river runoff and both north–south and east–west wind components were significant parameters, while for S. solea only river runoff was important. Results were compared with recent projections for climate change scenarios, to evaluate their effects on future recruitment levels.