基于CMIP5模拟的中国区域陆气耦合强度评估及未来情景预估

基于第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)11个模式历史情景的模拟结果计算得到了中国区域夏季的陆气耦合强度并进行集合平均,结果表明,位于半干旱区的华北和内蒙古地区陆气耦合强度相对较强,西部干旱区的陆气耦合强度相对较弱,位于湿润区的中国东北地区东部、长江中下游和西南地区陆气耦合强度最弱。利用上述模式集合平均结果与由NCEP再分析资料和欧洲中心的中期气象预报40年再分析资料(ERA40)计算得到的陆气耦合强度相比较,结果显示这些模式的集合平均与再分析资料NCEP和ERA40的计算结果有较好的一致性。利用历史情景模拟和不同的典型排放路径(RCP),即低排放情景RCP2.6、中排放情景RCP4.5和高排放情景RCP8.5下的模拟结果预估陆气耦合强度未来变化。结果显示:与历史情景相比较,位于湿润区的中国南方地区蒸散发的主要控制因子是温度,在3种排放情景下随着温度上升引起蒸散发增加所导致陆气耦合强度升高;位于青藏高原以及半干旱区的内蒙古大部分地区蒸散发在未来的年际变化幅度减弱导致陆气耦合指数降低;位于西北干旱区陆气耦合强度在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景上升,然而在RCP8.5情景下陆气耦合强度下降,其原因是在高排放情景下,水汽平流输送明显增强,局地蒸散发异常对空气湿度变化的贡献减弱,导致了陆气耦合强度降低。未来预估结果在中国南方可信度相对较高,从全国来看,在RCP4.5情景下可信度相对较高。     

模糊马尔可夫预测法在空气质量评价中的应用

将模糊综合评价及马尔可夫链同时运用到空气质量的评价中,可克服大气环境系统所固有的模糊性及随机性。通过1994—1998年芜湖市大气环境监测数据计算表明：不仅预测结果准确,而且由于应用了模糊数学方法,使得结果较为可信,且整个过程计算简单,是一种较适合的方法。     

应用GeoStar建立数字佛像三维模型的研究

通过使用GeoStar系列软件进行数字三维佛像建模 ,进一步实现佛像的动态漫游 ,从而得出了一种基于等值线图建立数字表面模型并进行空间漫游的可行技术 ;通过研究卧佛的历史资料 ,对数字佛像模型进行修补 ,探讨了实现佛像表面三维可视化复原的方法     

Dynamical modelling of the elliptical galaxy NGC 2974

In this paper we analyse the relations between a previously described oblate Jaffe model for an ellipsoidal galaxy and the observed quantities for NGC 2974, and obtain the length and velocity scales for a relevant elliptical galaxy model. We then derive the finite total mass of the model from these scales, and finally find a good fit of an isotropic oblate Jaffe model by using the Gauss-Hermite fit parameters and the observed ellipticity of the galaxy NGC 2974. The model is also used to predict the total luminous mass of NGC 2974, assuming that the influence of dark matter in this galaxy on the image, ellipticity and Gauss-Hermite fit parameters of this galaxy is negligible within the central region, of radius 0.5R _e.     

铜矿数字矿床模型专家系统的原理与技术实现

数字矿床模型是指将传统的地质学语言描述的矿床特征,转化成计算机可以识别的数字和符号,并加入人工智能的推理规则和知识,使之具备矿床自动推理和勘查辅助决策的功能。本项研究是在基于前人的工作基础上,结合国内外数字矿床模型的先进理论和经验进行了系统的实现。本文论述了铜矿床数字化的方法原理以及在系统实现时的关键性技术问题。系统知识库和规则库的建立是在多位铜矿专家的协助下完成的,专家对一系列先验概率等相关参数进行赋值,并用统计学方法下进行了处理。铜矿专家系统中知识库和规则库的保存和管理使用了数据库开发技术,采用数据挖掘作为知识发现的新手段。系统使用产生式规则,采用主观贝叶斯方法为推理的总体算法,搜索策略采用广度优先向前搜索的策略;在地质证据的输入方面不只提供与铜矿类型直接相关的证据,同时系统也提供了更为充分的地质证据,使推理的过程更加可靠和合理,同时地质词典功能的加入方便用户对相关地质术语进行查询和检索。系统不仅能实现单一成因的矿床进行推理,也能对复合矿床类型进行推理。     

黑龙江铁力兴安一带斑岩型钼矿资源潜力预测

黑龙江省铁力市兴安地区发育晚三叠世-早侏罗世的细粒二长花岗斑岩的U-Pb锆石LA-ICPMS年龄为195～201Ma,钼矿(化)体产于斑岩体的顶部或外接触带的中细粒似斑状二长花岗岩中,斑岩体的岩石学、矿化及围岩蚀变、地球化学异常特征,均显示出斑岩型矿床的特征.另外,在花岗质火山-侵入杂岩体中也见钼矿化,其异常模式虽显示出中温火山热液有关的特征,但从区域成矿演化特征来看,可能与晚三叠世-早侏罗世细粒二长花岗斑岩具有统一的构造-岩浆-成矿体系,具"同源不同环境、部位和同位、不同成矿期次"的特征.     

Continental shelf nurseries and recruitment variability in American plaice and yellowtail flounder on the Grand Bank: insights into stock resiliency

In 1994, a directed fishing moratorium was declared for Grand Bank American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) stocks because both stocks showed severe declines in abundance from heavy exploitation during the mid 1980s and early 1990s. Four years later, the fishery for yellowtail re-opened while the plaice stock has shown little recovery and the moratorium is still in effect. To assess the possible causes of the differences in recovery between species, we examined the spatial structure and environmental characteristics of the continental shelf nursery habitats of plaice and yellowtail, and their relationship to recruitment variability and overall population size. Depth plays a major influential role determining the spatial pattern and the abundance of juveniles of both species and in the case of plaice the spatial structure of the adult population also determines the amount of nursery area utilised by juveniles. Recruitment variability was higher in plaice than in yellowtail. We found year class synchrony in both species indicating that common environmental conditions and/or biological processes are affecting recruitment in a similar manner. Density-dependent regulation appears to be more severe in yellowtail and this should contribute to a more stable population when compared to plaice. These results are discussed in terms of resiliency of both stocks to over-exploitation.     

Transport of waste heat from a nuclear power plant into coastal water

A numerical and experimental modeling is presented for studying the transport of waste heat from a nuclear power plant into coastal water by using a full-field physical model with scale distortion, a local physical model with normal scale and a depth-averaged k− turbulence model with a modified second-order upwind scheme. Field investigations are also used to provide the calibration and validation of the modeling. A case study simulating the turbulent tidal flow and waste heat transport in the coastal water near Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant in Southern China was conducted. The experimental result of the case study shows that the water temperature in coastal water was a little oversimulated near the surface and was a little undersimulated near the bottom of heated-water layer by the full-field physical model. The numerical study shows that the depth-averaged k− turbulence model presented a satisfied prediction of turbulent tidal flow and far-field temperature distribution in coastal water, although the near-field stratification due to the heated water effluent was not accounted for. The result of the effect of scale distortion on physical model shows that a full-field physical model with a scale distortion of 10 produced a satisfied result of temperature distribution in the present case study.     

太阳爆发过程中的大尺度磁重联电流片:理论和观测

从理论和观测两个方面来介绍和讨论出现在太阳爆发过程中的磁重联电流片及其物理本质和动力学特征。首先介绍在理论研究和理论模型中,磁重联电流片是如何在爆发磁结构当中形成并发展的,对观测研究有什么指导意义。然后介绍观测工作是从哪几个方面对理论模型预测的电流片进行证认和研究的。第三,将介绍观测研究给出了哪些过去所没有能够预期的结果,这些结果对深入研究耀斑一CME电流片以及其中的磁重联过程的理论工作有什么重要的、挑战性的意义。第四,讨论最新的与此有关的理论研究和数值实验。最后,对未来的研究方向和重要课题进行综述和展望。     

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.