双黑洞系统的不同起源及其参数分布

双黑洞组成的近密双星系统并合是激光干涉仪引力波天文台等地基引力波探测器的主要探测对象。随着探测器灵敏度的提高,大量该类信号的探测将成为进一步研究黑洞物理的有效工具。但是目前对双黑洞系统的起源机制和内禀参数分布等物理问题的研究还不够深入,例如由引力波探测得到的黑洞质量分布与X射线双星观测的结果存在较大差异,还未有很好的理论模型可解释该结果。目前普遍认为双黑洞系统主要有两种起源:大质量双星演化机制和动力学起源机制。基于这两类起源的双黑洞系统在质量、自旋分布等方面存在差异。因此可在贝叶斯理论框架下,利用引力波信号携带的波源质量和自旋等信息,推断波源起源,计算不同起源的双黑洞系统所占比例,以及检验质量自旋等参数分布的差异。     

物化探在新疆西昆仑铅锌矿预查中的应用

以已知矿体上物化探异常特征为依据,对区内其他物化探异常进行了分类与解释推断,圈定了四条矿化体.     

不同赋存状态油裂解条件及油裂解型气源灶的正演和反演研究

油裂解型气源灶是一种特殊的气源灶,是优质生烃母质在成气过程中派生出的。烃源岩生成的油主要有3种赋存形式:源内分散状液态烃、源外分散状液态烃和源外富集型液态烃。3种赋存状态液态烃的数量及分配比例受内因和外因多种因素控制,就排油率而言,有机碳含量分别为0.67%、0.62%和10.6%的泥岩、灰岩和油页岩,最大排油率分别为45%、55%和80%。原油与不同介质配样的生气动力学实验表明,不同介质条件下甲烷的生成活化能分布有差异,碳酸盐岩对油裂解条件影响最大,可大大降低其活化能,导致原油裂解热学条件降低,体现为油裂解温度的降低;泥岩次之,砂岩影响最小。碳酸盐岩、泥岩和砂岩对油的催化裂解作用依次减弱,不同介质条件下主生气期对应的Ro值:纯原油1.5%～3.8%;碳酸盐岩中的分散原油1.2%～3.2%;泥岩中的分散原油1.3%～3.4%;砂岩中的分散原油1.4%～3.6%。油裂解型气源灶是一种中间体,可以直观看到的是原生气源灶和由此形成的气藏,而对油裂解型气源灶的赋存形式、分布范围、成气数量和储量规模等问题,只能通过正演和反演的研究去确定且相互映证。正演研究以塔里木盆地中下寒武统为例,原始生油量2232.24×108t,剩余油量806.21×108t,油裂解气量106.95×1012m3。反演研究以川东北飞仙关组白云岩中油裂解气为例,圈定的古油藏面积约735km2,古油藏原油数量45×108t,油裂解气量及油裂解气资源量分别为2.72×1012m3和1.36×1012m3。     

Artificial intelligence methods in geological forecasting

The objective of applications of expert systems to geological forecasting is to use heuristic knowledge of experienced geologists, as well as their intuition and facility for drawing the right forecast conclusions based on incomplete data. At the same time, considerable experience is accumulated in geological forecasting with formal mathematical models that generalize the setting of some forecast problem classes. Thus, the bottom-up heuristic approach and the more formal top-down methods are aspiring to the same aim, so they supplement and strengthen each other. A forecast expert system called GENESIS that allows both approaches to be used has been produced. The heuristic part of GENESIS is the empty expert system, which consists of the knowledge definition language, destined for an expert geologist, the knowledge base used for forecast models storing, then forming knowledge base facilities, relational database for storing user's data and forecast specimen, components that organize the certain inference and its explanation.     

Modelling the influence of environmental and weather factors on the density of the invasive polychaete Boccardia proboscidea

The inter‐tidal zone around sewage discharges in a Southwest Atlantic shore (Mar del Plata, Argentina) is currently colonized by extensive inter‐tidal reefs of the invasive spionid Boccardia proboscidea. Understanding the links between both human and natural disturbances and the massive development of non‐indigenous species will help prevent marine bioinvasions, which are already favoured by global oceanic trade. We present herein predictive models for variations in the density of B. proboscidea around sewage discharges of Mar del Plata, using environmental (pH, turbidity, temperature, salinity and total organic matter content), weather (wind direction and storm records), spatial (sites) and temporal (season and year) variables. Density variations were modelled by generalized linear models, and model averaging (multimodel inference) was used to obtain predicted values. The highest predicted values of B. proboscidea density occurred at sites to the south of the sewage effluent in spring. These sites are more affected by urban effluent discharges and they showed increased B. proboscidea density when the north wind was predominant. In addition, B. proboscidea density values were higher in sites with 20–22 °C (seawater temperature), high total organic matter content in sediments and low salinity. The averaged model was only a good ‘predictive model’ for sites to the north of the outfall, but was useful as an ‘explanatory model’ in all sites. Such predictions may help to back up conservation and management policies and decisions.     

自适应模糊神经推理系统在混凝土强度评定中的应用

混凝土强度评定的准确性对结构物的安全性评价具有很大的影响。为了充分利用钻芯法和回弹法这2种常用混凝土测强方法的特点,建立自适应模糊神经推理系统模型来综合评定结构的混凝土强度。将回弹值的常用对数和碳化深度值作为模型的输入,钻芯值的常用对数作为模型的输出。模型参数采用混合算法确定。其中,条件参数采用梯度下降法来调整;结论参数采用最小二乘法来调整。该模型可以有效地映射出训练数据之间复杂的非线性关系。通过对已有的钻芯、回弹试验数据的对比计算,自适应模糊神经推理系统方法的强度预测精度高于常规的回归方法。     

圆弧破坏边坡反演设计的ANN方法与ANFIS方法的比较研究

圆弧破坏边坡反演设计方法,是根据边坡的岩土力学参数及边坡高度,在确保安全系数满足要求的前提下,对圆弧破坏边坡的边坡角进行设计的一种新方法。建立圆弧破坏边坡反演设计方法的关键,就是要对大量稳定圆弧破坏边坡实例加以集成,以建立从{ , c, , H, F}到 的映射。文中收集了大量稳定圆弧破坏边坡实例,采用ANN和ANFIS对其进行了集成,分别建立了圆弧破坏边坡反演设计的ANN方法和ANFIS方法,进而又采用圆弧破坏边坡实例对两者的反演结果进行了比较。结果表明,ANFIS更适合于用来建立圆弧破坏边坡反演设计方法。     

高密度电阻率法在山东莱州小浞河铁矿采空区勘查中的应用

本文基于基础资料收集,通过高密度电阻率法并结合钻探验证工程,对山东莱州小浞河铁矿开采形成的采空区进行勘查。勘查成果表明,因充水,小浞河铁矿采空区电阻率值明显低于周围岩层,在高密度电法视电阻率反演断面图上均表现为漏斗状低阻异常,并且异常体分布相对规则、连续,与磁铁矿体及其采准巷道工程较一致。经钻探工程进一步验证,物探解译推断的采空区位置与钻探揭露深度较为吻合,表明高密度电阻率法在铁矿采空区勘查中具有较高的可行性和实用性。基于Voxler软件平台,综合基础地质资料以及钻探验证结果等,对高密度电法测量成果三维可视化可有效快捷地圈定采空区范围,为进一步的灾害防治提供有利依据。     

Pumping-rate control for contaminated groundwater with VOCs by using fuzzy inference model

In this paper, a new method is proposed for the remediation of contaminated groundwater. The method is based on fuzzy inference and risk evaluation. The effectiveness of the presented method is assessed in numerical simulations. The main results of the study are as follows: 1) A pump-and-treat control algorithm was proposed by using the fuzzy inference and the human health risk calculation model, 2) It was found that applying the proposed algorithm was likely to reduce the pumped quantity, and 3) It was found that the proposed model can be used to notify residents of the human health risk; the model is based on the ASTM RBCA model for residents. A new fuzzy control system for contaminated groundwater can be used as a useful model for characterising the effects of contaminants on human health and providing helpful information on the human risk assessment of the contaminated groundwater site.