中国航空客运网络的空间演化模式研究

利用定量模型分析的方法,从经济转型期航空运输发展的驱动力、地域非均衡性、民航客运网络演化三方面对1980~1998年中国航空运输体系发展特征进行了分析。结果显示,经过20多年的发展,中国航空运输网络以及服务的地域范围得到了显著改善,平均每个机场服务的空间半径缩短了27%,旅客的平均旅行距离下降了17%;由于沿海地区社会经济的快速发展,中国航空体系的空间重心向东南偏移;层次分明的航空客运网络结构逐步形成;通过对经济发展与航空运输发展间关系的统计分析表明,中国经济每增长1%,则航空运量增长1.72%。航空运输的发展将在中国社会经济空间结构调整中发挥越来越重要作用。     

Transformation of Fish Corrals in Nha Phu Lagoon,Vietnam: livelihood changes and implications

ABSTRACT

Coastal fisheries in Nha Phu lagoon, Vietnam, have encountered dramatic transformation in recent decades. Socio-economic and environmental impacts are examined through the case of fish corrals. The intensification and expansion of fish corrals has helped some households to enhance their income and livelihood assets. Technological and access-related changes associated with this transformation have also resulted in lower incomes, and even pushed poorer households into indebtedness by undermining their livelihood assets. The privatisation of common pool resources has also led to marginalisation of the poor, increasing inequality in access to natural resources and social differentiation, as not all households are able to benefit from the technological changes taking place, while access to natural resources is increasingly concentrated among the wealthier households who are driving this process. A range of measures are needed to alleviate poverty and promote more diverse sustainable livelihood development in fishing communities around the lagoon.     

附不等式约束平差的一种简单迭代算法

基于最优化计算理论中罚函数方法及传统测量平差中零权和无限权的思想,提出一种有效的迭代算法,算法过程与经典平差计算方法相同.数值实验表明,该算法简单、可行,并且具有很快的收敛速度.作者还将该模型用在大坝变形分析中,根据地形对控制点建立不等式约束,能够探测到更真实的点位位移,较之无约束平差更合理可靠.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Women, Work, and Ideology in the Third World . Haleh Afshar, ed. The Birth of the National Park Service. The Founding Years 1913–33 . Horace M. Albright Theatres of Accumulation: Studies in Asian and Latin American Urbanization . Warwick Armstrong and T.G. McGee. New Tools for Social Scientists, Advances and Applications in Research Methods . William D. Berry and Michael S. Lewis -Beck , eds . Uncertain Dimensions: Western Overseas Empires in the Twentieth Century . Raymond F. Betts. Geography of Sugar Cane . Helmut Blume. The Mines of Neptune: Minerals and Metals from the Sea . Elisabeth Mann Borgese. Geographical Dimensions of Energy . F.J. Calzonetti and B.D. Solomon, eds. Statistical Methods for Geographers . W. A. V. Clark and P. L. Hosking. In The Wake of Columbus, Islands and Controversy . John DeVorsey, Jr., and John Parker, eds. Housing, States and Localities . Peter Dickens, Simon Duncan, Mark Goodwin and Fred Gray. Physician Location and Specialty Choice . Richard L. Ernst and Donald E. Yett. Practical Ecology for Geography and Biology: Survey, Mapping, and Data Analysis . D.D. Gilbertson , M. Kent and F.B. Pyatt Large Scale Water Transfers: Emerging Environmental and Social Experiences . Genady N. Golubev and Asit K. Biswas, eds. The Nature of the Environment . Andrew Goudie. Planning for Population Change . W.T.S. Gould and R. Lawton. The Niger and its Neighbors: Environmental History and Hydrobiology. Human Use and Health Hazards of the Major West African Rivers . A.T. Grove, ed. Remote Sensing of Ice and Snow . Dorothy K. Hall and Jaroslav Martinec. Atlas of Antebellum Southern Agriculture . Sam Bowers Hilliard. Galilee Divided; The Israel-Lebanon Frontier, 1916-1984 . Frederic C. Hor . Plains Country Towns . John C. Hudson. Agricultural Geography: A Social and Economic Analysis . Brian W. Ilbery. Industry in the 1980s: Structural Change and Interdependence . U.N. Industrial Development Organization. Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United States . Kenneth T. Jackson. The Industrial Geography of Italy . Russell King. Studies in Linguistic Geography: The Dialects of English in Britain and Ireland . John M. Kirk, Stewart Sanderson, J.D.A. Widdowson, eds. Tourism: A Community Approach . Peter E. Murphy. Cities and Services: The Geography of Collective Consumption . Steven Pinch. An Historical Geography of Europe 1800–1914 . Norman J. G. Pounds. An Introduction to Human Ecology Research on Agricultural Systems in Southeast Asia . A. Terry Rambo and Percy E. Sajise, eds. Discovering Past Landscapes . Michael Reed, ed. Managing the Ocean: Resources, Research, Law . Jacques G. Richardson, ed. Carta fitosociologica de la transecta botanica de la Patagonia Austral . F.A. Roig , Juan Anchorema , Orlando Dollenz , A.M. Faggi and Eduardo Mandez Intermetropolitan Migration in Canada: Changing Determinants over Three Decades . R. Paul Shaw. Chinese Cities—The Growth of the Metropolis since 1949 . Victor F. Sit, ed. Urbanization in the World-Economy . Michael Timberlake, ed. The Al Business: Commercial Uses of Artificial Intelligence . Patrick H. Winston and Karen A. Prendergast, eds.     

Co-dynamics of climate policy stringency and public support

Public support for stringent climate policies is currently weak. We develop a model to study the dynamics of public support for climate policies. It comprises three interconnected modules: one calculates policy impacts; a second translates these into policy support mediated by social influence; and a third represents the regulator adapting policy stringency depending on public support. The model combines general-equilibrium and agent-based elements and is empirically grounded in a household survey, which allows quantifying policy support as a function of effectiveness, personal wellbeing and distributional effects. We apply our approach to compare two policy instruments, namely carbon taxation and performance standards, and identify intertemporal trajectories that meet the climate target and count on sufficient public support. Our results highlight the importance of social influence, opinion stability and income inequality for public support of climate policies. Our model predicts that carbon taxation consistently generates more public support than standards. Finally, we show that under moderate social influence and income inequality, an increasing carbon tax trajectory combined with progressive revenue redistribution receives the highest average public support over time.     

Space,scale, and regional inequality in provincial China: A spatial filtering approach

This paper investigates regional inequality and development in China's Guangdong province by employing the multi-scale and multi-mechanism framework. The study further examines the relationship between space, scale, and regional inequality by applying a spatial filtering method that eliminates spatial dependence of the data and quantifies the extent to which spatial effects have contributed to regional inequality at multiple scales. The results suggest that over 90% of the divide between the core of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and the periphery areas of Guangdong province can be explained by the effect of strengthening spatial dependence. By incorporating spatial filters in space-time models, we also reveal the space-time and core-periphery heterogeneities of development mechanisms. Our study confirms that the integration of a multi-scale and multi-mechanism framework and rigorous spatial analysis methods, such as spatial filtering and space-time modeling, helps better understand the complexity of regional development in China.     

Spatial and gender inequality in the Kenya certificate of primary education examination results

Kenya's 8-4-4 system of education consists of 8 years of primary education, 4 years of secondary education, and 4 years of university education. The system was introduced in 1985 with the primary aim of better aligning Kenya's education system with its development aspirations. In particular, the system sought to reduce youth unemployment by offering them life skills training as well as technical and vocational skills. At the completion of 8 years of primary education, students take the national Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) exam which tests students in five courses: English, Kiswahili, mathematics, science, and social studies and religious education (SSR). However, since the adoption of the 8-4-4 system, no comprehensive study of the spatial distribution of KCPE exam scores, especially by gender has been done. Thus, this study examines nationwide performance on the 2011 KCPE exam by gender using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial statistics. Examination scores derived from approximately 17,217 public primary schools and 630,625 students were used in the study. Point pattern analysis was subsequently used to extract useful information from the dataset. A hot spot and cold spot analysis was then performed to see if unusual concentrations of scores exist in space in terms of overall performance, performance by gender, and individual subject scores. Our results show an existence of significant variability in terms of overall performance, performance by gender, and individual subject scores; with males outperforming females in mathematics, science, and SSR. Additionally, we found that proximity to major road networks and urban centers positively influences student performance on the KCPE exam probably because these factors influence the availability of educational resources (such as books and teachers), masterly of English (the language of instruction), teacher supervision, and child teachability.     

Performance assessment and optimization of seepage control system: A numerical case study for Kala underground powerhouse

The Kala Hydropower Station, planned in the middle reach of Yalong River in China, consists of a large-scale cavern system for water conveyance and power generation. The construction site is characteristic of difficult geological conditions and is rich in groundwater, and the control of groundwater flow in the surrounding rocks of the underground caverns becomes one of the key technological issues. This case study presents a systematic performance assessment of the seepage control system designed for the underground caverns by finite element numerical modeling, with particular concerns on geological characterization of the site and quantitative determination of the excavation-induced variation in hydraulic conductivity of the surrounding rock masses. The significant influence of the excavation-induced permeability variation on the seepage field in the surrounding rocks and the overall behaviors of the seepage control system are comprehensively illustrated by the numerical results, and the optimized design parameters are suggested for the drainage system. The methodology presented in this study is useful for understanding the performance of the seepage control system widely deployed in underground powerhouse engineering.     

中国地区收入与净财富不平等的演变路径识别

当前,“共同富裕”问题备受各界关注,中国2035年远景目标纲要明确要求“共同富裕”取得实质性进展,因而测度收入与净财富不平等程度、识别地区“共同富裕”的路径差异与成因具有重要意义。本文根据2011—2019年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,使用基尼系数、洛伦兹曲线和计量模型分析地区收入不平等和净财富不平等的演变模式、成因与地区“共同富裕”的路径差异。研究发现：① 虽然2011—2019年全国收入不平等程度下降,但净财富不平等维持在高位,而各地区收入和净财富不平等变化存在明显空间差异,其各分位点上的收入或净财富累计占比变化呈现不同态势。② 进一步检验地区不平等与经济发展的关系,发现经济发展水平与收入不平等呈近似倒“U”型关系,与净财富不平等呈近似倒“N”型关系。③ 各地区“共同富裕”的路径存在差异,发达省市区正逐步推进“共同富裕”,而落后省市区这一迹象并未显现。本文为中央与地方政府“共同富裕”政策的制定提供借鉴与参考。     

A distribution-free ordinal classification of floods based on moments

ABSTRACT

Classification of floods is often based on return periods of their peaks estimated from probability distributions and hence depends on assumptions. The choice of an appropriate distribution function and parameter estimation are often connected with high uncertainties. In addition, limited length of data series and the stochastic characteristic of the occurrence of extreme events add further uncertainty. Here, a distribution-free classification approach is proposed based on statistical moments. By using robust estimators the sampling effects are reduced and time series of different lengths can be analysed together. With a developed optimization procedure, locally and regionally consistent flood categories can be defined. In application, it is shown that the resulting flood categories can be used to assess the spatial extent of extreme floods and their coincidences. Moreover, groups of gauges, where simultaneous events belong to the same classes, are indicators for homogeneous groups of gauges in regionalization.