包含正定水汽高精度算法的MM5模式的暴雨实例试验

本文首先对非静力中尺度模式ＭＭ５的水汽输送方案作了半理想试验。结果显示,ＭＭ５原有的水汽平 流输送算法在水汽梯度较大的地方产生水汽负值,影响模式的模拟结果和模式的稳定性,对此,本文把一个正定的水汽输送算法Ｐｒａｔｈｅｒ算法引入ＭＭ５,并用实例作了数值试验,检验了模式的模拟能力,结果表明,对ＭＭ５的改进是敏感的有效的,Ｐｒａｔｈｅｒ格式增强了模式暴雨落区,暴雨中心的模拟能力。     

基于GIS的宁夏路网空间特征研究

宁夏回族自治区作为我国唯一的省级回族集聚地区,是一个很独特的地理-人口-交通单元,也是连接华北和西北的重要节点.以宁夏的交通路网数据为基础,通过设置阻抗改进网络分析法,并结合成本距离算法和GIS空间分析计算2011、2017年和2023年的县(区)可达性,研究全区路网的空间结构特征,并提出路网发展的决策建议.研究表明:...     

大气动力学方程组的定性理论及其应用

基于完整的湿大气动力学方程组,利用无穷维动力系统的新理论和新方法,系统讨论了强迫耗散的非线性大气系统的定性理论及其应用。将完整的强迫耗散非线性湿大气动力学方程组化为Hilbert空间中一个等价的算子方程,研究了算子的性质及其物理意义,在此基础上得到湿大气系统全局吸引子的存在性定理,揭示出系统向外源的非线性适应特征,并把结果推广到有地形动力作用和非定常外源强迫的情形。同时探讨了大气方程组惯性流形的存在,大气多平衡态产生的根源以及强迫、耗散和非线性对系统解的渐近行为的影响。在理论结果的基础上,提出强迫耗散的非线性动力系统中存在三类时间边界层、方程组简化准则、分解算法的算子约束原则以及支撑吸引子基底的少数自由度的构造方法,探讨了理论在非线性发展方程差分格式的设计和计算稳定性分析、多平衡态的数值分析、数值模式延伸预报的改进、短期气候预测以及一类中尺度系统分析与预测中的应用,指出描述长期过程动力学模式的必备条件,给出初值与模式相协调的合理解释。最后,对今后的研究方向作了展望。     

21层大气环流模式IAP AGCM-III的设计及气候数值模拟I.动力框架

设计了IAP (InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences)AGCM III,对其动力框架作说明和检验 ,时间积分采用改进的非线性迭代法。用Rossby Haurwitz波对框架进行了波型检验、能量检验和波速检验。结果表明 ,非线性迭代 3次的时间积分方案具有较好的稳定性 ,能够有效地抑制短波 ,同时对长波的歪曲较小 ,且时间积分步长可放得较大 ;该框架能够较长时间地保持Rossby Haurwitz 4波波型 ,在积分过程中能够较高精度地保持总有效能量守恒 ;模式计算的Rossby Haurwitz波速为每天西传 1 5个经度 ,这与理伦值很接近。     

INVESTIGATION ON EFFECTS OF INITIAL SCHEMES FOR BINARY TYPHOONS ROKE AND SONCA IN 2011

Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons’ track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.     

A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT

A scheme is proposed for predicting NINO-region SST in terms of a generalized canonical mixedregression model based on principal component canonical correlation analysis(PC-CCA). and into the scheme are introduced such techniques as EEOF, PRESS criterion and consensus prediction. By optimizing physicalfactors and selecting optimal model parameters, experiments were made successful in predicting the LINO SST index for 1 to 4 seasons to follow. The scheme is shown to be stable in operation and its total technical level compares well with that of the model published in NOAA/NWS/NCEP CPC Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. butthe number of factors needed in our scheme is much fewer than that for the CPC's model in dealing with the sameproblems. This makes it possible to establish an operational ENSO monitoring system in China.     

国家气象中心NWP新资料归档系统的技术特征

文章简要介绍了“八五”以来,国家气象中心数值预报系统新的归档方案设计特点、意义、内容,并探讨了归档软件开发中的一系列技术问题。     

陆面过程模式研究简评

主要总结了陆面过程模式的发展状况, 对一些国际间合作进行的计划、试验成果以及我国在这方面的研究情况加以介绍和评述, 最后给出陆面模拟研究中存在的难点、问题及可能的解决途径.     

Water Vapor and Cloud Radiative Forcings over the Pacific Ocean Simulated by the LASG/IAP AGCM: Sensitivity to Convection Schemes

Characteristics of the total clear-sky greenhouse effect (GA) and cloud radiative forcings (CRFs), along with the radiative-related water vapor and cloud properties simulated by the Spectral Atmospheric Model developed by LASGIAP (SAMIL) are evaluated. Impacts of the convection scheme on the simulation of CRFs are discussed by using two AMIP (Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project) type simulations employing different convection schemes: the new Zhang-McFarlane (NZH) and Tiedtke (TDK) convection schemes. It shows that both the climatological GA and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, both in terms of spatial pattern and magnitude. The impact of the convection scheme on GA is not significant. The climatological longwave CRF (LWCRF) and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, but with a prominently weaker magnitude. The simulation of the climatology (response) of LWCRF in the NZH (TDK) run is slightly more realistic than in the TDK (NZH) simulation, indicating significant impacts of the convection scheme. The shortwave CRF (SWCRF) shows large biases in both spatial pattern and magnitude, and the results from the TDK run are better than those from the NZH run. A spuriously excessive negative climatological SWCRF over the southeastern Pacific and an insufficient response of SWCRF to El Nio warming over the tropical Pacific are seen in the NZH run. These two biases are alleviated in the TDK run, since it produces vigorous convection, which is related to the low threshold for convection to take place. Also, impacts of the convection scheme on the cloud profile are discussed.     

云凝结核浓度对WRF模式模拟飑线降水的影响：不同云微物理参数化方案的对比研究

采用WRF模式模拟一次影响中国广东省的飑线过程, 分别选取Morrison、 Thompson07、 Thompson09和WDM6云微物理方案实施了四组试验, 每组试验包括不同云凝结核（CCN）浓度的三次模拟, 称为 “低浓度”、 “中浓度” 和 “高浓度”, 将模拟区域划分为深对流、 浅对流和层云区域, 对比分析四组试验中CCN浓度变化对模拟的总降水量、 不同区域降水率和不同区域面积的影响, 进一步分析了云微物理过程、 动力环流强度等受CCN浓度变化的影响。发现: （1） 由于不同云微物理过程与CCN浓度有着直接或间接的联系、 不同云微物理过程之间存在复杂的关联、 云微物理过程与动力环流之间发生非线性耦合, 采用不同的云微物理方案导致模拟的CCN—降雨影响既有相似、 也有差异; （2）模拟的CCN—降水影响在采用Thompson09和Thompson07方案时更显著, 采用WDM6方案时最小; （3）四组模拟试验均出现CCN浓度增加延迟降水产生、 初期降水减弱的情况, 在模拟后期降水量也随着CCN浓度增加而减小, 而飑线成熟阶段CCN—降水影响更加复杂。