气候变暖背景下西藏地区工程施工气象条件分析

利用降水、气温、积雪、风和相对湿度等影响工程施工建设的气象要素综合定义了工程施工气象指数,根据其对工程施工影响程度分为5级;采用1980—2013年西藏地区38个气象站资料分析了西藏地区工程施工的气候条件特征,以及气候变化背景下西藏地区工程施工气象等级变化,结果表明：气温和降水是影响西藏工程建设气象等级的主要因素,6—9月是西藏地区适宜工程建设期;适宜施工日数自东南向西北减少,适宜施工期开始日自东南向西北推进,适宜施工期结束日自西北向东南推进,海拔越低,适宜施工日数越多、适宜施工期开始越早、适宜施工期结束越晚;随着气候变暖,西藏地区适宜施工日数增加,表现为适宜施工期开始日提前和适宜施工期结束日推迟。     

An Implementation of Full Cycle Strategy Using Dynamic Blending for Rapid Refresh Short-range Weather Forecasting in China

The partial cycle(PC) strategy has been used in many rapid refresh cycle systems(RRC) for regional short-range weather forecasting. Since the strategy periodically reinitializes the regional model(RM) from the global model(GM)forecasts to correct the large-scale drift, it has replaced the traditional full cycle(FC) strategy in many RRC systems.However, the extra spin-up in the PC strategy increases the computer burden on RRC and generates discontinuous smallscale systems among cycles. This study returns to the FC strategy but with initial fields generated by dynamic blending(DB) and data assimilation(DA). The DB ingests the time-varied large-scale information from the GM to the RM to generate less-biased background fields. Then the DA is performed. We applied the new FC strategy in a series of 7-day batch forecasts with the 3-hour cycle in July 2018, and February, April, and October 2019 over China using a Weather Research and Forecast(WRF) model-based RRC. A comparison shows that the new FC strategy results in less model bias than the PC strategy in most state variables and improves the forecast skills for moderate and light precipitation. The new FC strategy also allows the model to reach a balanced state earlier and gives favorable forecast continuity between adjacent cycles. Hence, this new FC strategy has potential to be applied in RRC forecast systems to replace the currently used PC strategy.     

地震分析应用软件包

快速,准确地测定出每个地震的参数,编写单台地震报告是地震台站的主要任务。本软件实现了地震分析程序化既满足了台站人员的要求,提高了工作质量,又提高了工作效率。由于本软件使用了三次样条函数插值进行计算数据处理,具有一定的容错能力,实现了计算机自动处理ＲＭＺ量规函数据的插值计算,思路独特,方法简练。本软件最大的特点是具有一定的智能化;输入方法简单,程序操作易懂;免除了以往台站人员的抄写,查表等繁琐劳动。     

“7.17”庐山雷击事件分析

通过对 2 0 0 2年 7月 1 7日雷电过程的天气形势、卫星云图、多普勒雷达资料 ,以及雷电探测定位系统资料的分析 ,指出水汽云图上的强水汽累积区、雷达回波上的回波合并与高层强回波区以及雷达回波速度场上的“零值线”等特征 ,是判断雷电发生和强对流天气的重要依据     

Conditioning temperature‐index model parameters on synoptic weather types for glacier melt simulations

Temperature‐index models are widely favoured as a pragmatic means of simulating glacier melt because of their generally good performance, computational simplicity and limited demands for in situ data. However, their coefficients are normally treated as temporally stationary, unrealistically assuming a constancy of the prevailing weather. We address this simplification by prescribing model coefficients as a function of synoptic weather type, in a procedure that utilizes reanalysis data and preserves the minimal data requirements of temperature‐index models. Using a cross‐validation procedure at Vestari Hagafellsjökull, Iceland, and Storglaciären, Sweden, we demonstrate that applying transient model coefficients, for three temperature‐index models, results in statistically significant increases in the skill with which melt is modelled: Median simulation improvements in the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 7.3 and 23.6% are achieved when hourly and daily melt totals are evaluated respectively. Our weather‐type modelling approach also yields insight to processes driving parameter variability, revealing dependence that is consistent with a priori considerations of the surface energy balance. We conclude that incorporating weather types into temperature‐index models holds promise for improving their performance, as well as enhancing understanding variability in coefficient values. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

异常情况下大风的记录和编发报

介绍自动站风向风速传感器的工作原理及风要素的采集方法,对自动气象站FJ.TXT文件中记录的大风数据与Z文件记录的极大风速及其出现时间不一致的原因进行分析,并提出正确记录和编发报的方法。     

What makes a planet habitable?

This work reviews factors which are important for the evolution of habitable Earth-like planets such as the effects of the host star dependent radiation and particle fluxes on the evolution of atmospheres and initial water inventories. We discuss the geodynamical and geophysical environments which are necessary for planets where plate tectonics remain active over geological time scales and for planets which evolve to one-plate planets. The discoveries of methane–ethane surface lakes on Saturn’s large moon Titan, subsurface water oceans or reservoirs inside the moons of Solar System gas giants such as Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus and more than 335 exoplanets, indicate that the classical definition of the habitable zone concept neglects more exotic habitats and may fail to be adequate for stars which are different from our Sun. A classification of four habitat types is proposed. Class I habitats represent bodies on which stellar and geophysical conditions allow Earth-analog planets to evolve so that complex multi-cellular life forms may originate. Class II habitats includes bodies on which life may evolve but due to stellar and geophysical conditions that are different from the class I habitats, the planets rather evolve toward Venus- or Mars-type worlds where complex life-forms may not develop. Class III habitats are planetary bodies where subsurface water oceans exist which interact directly with a silicate-rich core, while class IV habitats have liquid water layers between two ice layers, or liquids above ice. Furthermore, we discuss from the present viewpoint how life may have originated on early Earth, the possibilities that life may evolve on such Earth-like bodies and how future space missions may discover manifestations of extraterrestrial life.     

面向任务的移动灾情快速采集直报技术与应用

本文针对我国目前灾情直报、灾情核查评估、灾害应急响应、遥感影像地面解译等重大灾害现场应急工作需求,提出了一种面向任务的移动灾情快速采集直报技术,并以这种技术的业务化应用为目标,详细阐述了自然灾害移动信息平台的整体建设方案。该技术以现场灾情采集工作图层为载体,以现场工作任务规划为核心,系统解决了现场灾情采集工作中多元灾情信息的一体化采集、快速集成、即时上报、实时监控、团队协作等技术难题。相对于目前广泛采用的"卫星定位+底图标绘+移动通信"技术模式,该技术具有4个方面的优势:灵活兼容任何现场灾情信息采集任务;避免了卫星导航系统定位精度不高导致的大量后期数据处理工作;实现了多元灾情信息的一体化采集与快速上报;能够支持多个现场小组协同工作。该技术开发的自然灾害移动信息平台,由终端子系统、后方服务子系统和支撑数据库组成,能够依托智能移动终端设备提供现场多元灾情数据的一体化采集、快速上报、实时在线集成、快速共享等功能。该技术应用于青海玉树地震结古镇倒房评估,现场评估工作组利用4台移动终端在3天内完成了685个斑块房屋倒损程度、房屋间数、单位造价、户数及人口等灾情指标的调查统计,采集的数据可直接用于数据分析,辅助决策支持。     

船舶海洋气象导航的业务概况与发展现状

通过对多家船舶海洋气象导航公司和机构的介绍,概括了国内外气象导航的业务和发展。文章分析结果表明,国外气象导航业务发展历史悠久,技术储备雄厚,业务体系完善,占据了全球气象导航业务的大部分市场份额。国内气象导航的发展历程较短,技术力量薄弱,业务量相对较少。当前国内的气象导航服务正在努力开拓创新,在信息化背景下逐步开展多样化的平台建设和产品研发,并取得了良好的进展。     

基于CIMISS的区域灾害性天气实时监测与报警系统的设计与实现

基于CIMISS提供的统一数据环境,结合当前气象防灾减灾服务需求,设计出一个集约化的全自动气象灾害监测报警系统,能够直接向各类用户个人提供定制化的实时灾害性天气信息服务,并使用户能够随时随地通过移动设备或台式电脑了解灾害性天气的发生和发展详细情况。本文从系统功能结构、信息收集与处理流程、灾害性天气报警时机判断及实况信息生成算法等方面,对该系统的设计内容及其实现方式进行了介绍。