用小波变换提取雷达回波图像中的辐合特征线

采用小波变换的方法对滨州雷达资料的反射率图像进行处理,得到特征线增强后的图像,将其输入自动预报系统实现特征识别,可为雷暴预报提供初步资料。     

武汉天气信息分发服务系统的特性和应用

利用数据广播和微机终端相结合的先进技术，设计和研制成功ＭＹＴＲＯＮＳ系统的分发服务环节－一个高效实时和多功能的武汉天气信息分发服务系统。为基层台站获取中尺度天 气信息发挥发强大分发功能，并取得了显著的社会和经济效益。     

吉林省对流性天气的分布特征及地形影响机制

通过对吉林省强对流天气和对流性天气活动与地形关系的分析，初步揭示出地形对两类对流天气的影响机制，其结果对进一步分析研究和准确预报强对流天气具有重要意义。     

Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscaling ratios and storm types in rainfall simulation

Accurate information of rainfall is needed for sustainable water management and more reliable flood forecasting. The advances in mesoscale numerical weather modelling and modern computing technologies make it possible to provide rainfall simulations and forecasts at increasingly higher resolutions in space and time. However, being one of the most difficult variables to be modelled, the quality of the rainfall products from the numerical weather model remains unsatisfactory for hydrological applications. In this study, the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is investigated using different domain settings and various storm types to improve the model performance of rainfall simulation. Eight 24‐h storm events are selected from the Brue catchment, southwest England, with different spatial and temporal distributions of the rainfall intensity. Five domain configuration scenarios designed with gradually changing downscaling ratios are used to run the WRF model with the ECMWF 40‐year reanalysis data for the periods of the eight events. A two‐dimensional verification scheme is proposed to evaluate the amounts and distributions of simulated rainfall in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The verification scheme consists of both categorical and continuous indices for a first‐level assessment and a more quantitative evaluation of the simulated rainfall. The results reveal a general improvement of the model performance as we downscale from the outermost to the innermost domain. Moderate downscaling ratios of 1:7, 1:5 and 1:3 are found to perform better with the WRF model in giving more reasonable results than smaller ratios. For the sensitivity study on different storm types, the model shows the best performance in reproducing the storm events with spatial and temporal evenness of the observed rainfall, whereas the type of events with highly concentrated rainfall in space and time are found to be the trickiest case for WRF to handle. Finally, the efficiencies of several variability indices are verified in categorising the storm events on the basis of the two‐dimensional rainfall evenness, which could provide a more quantitative way for the event classification that facilitates further studies. It is important that similar studies with various storm events are carried out in other catchments with different geographic and climatic conditions, so that more general error patterns can be found and further improvements can be made to the rainfall products from mesoscale numerical weather models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

开展空间天气业务对广东社会经济的影响

通过对空间天气和空间天气学的描述,介绍空间天气学的研究内容、方法、监测手段以及空间天气灾害的危害;分析了在广东开展空间天气业务的必要性,并对如何开展广东空间天气业务提出建议。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM （Advanced Regional Eta Model）, two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source （NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings） during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that： （1） the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain; （2） the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast; （3） the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR; （4） the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and （5） the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.     

一次强对流天气及其中短时强降水的成因分析

利用常规地面、高空观测资料,自动站资料,NCEP再分析资料,多普勒雷达资料和WRF模式模拟资料等,对2009年6月初晋豫鲁皖苏5省的一次强对流天气及其中短时强降水的形成原因进行了分析。结果表明:本次过程是在高空东北冷涡不断引导冷空气南下,与低层低涡扰动形成冷暖空气汇合的有利天气形势下发生的。边界层内的强烈辐合抬升是触发对流发生和释放对流不稳定能量的主要原因之一。高空有明显的干侵入并叠加在低层高假相当位温的暖湿空气之上,这种较强的位势不稳定形势对本次过程中对流系统的触发提供了有利的条件。对流系统移动方向一侧有较强的风暴相对螺旋度,通过低层辐合上升气流的倾斜作用,使更多的水平涡度转化为垂直涡度,为本次过程的发展、维持以及其短时强降水的发生提供了有利的条件。     

CINRAD/SA天气雷达RDA适配参数的组成与应用

通过例证的方法,系统介绍了CINRAD/SA天气雷达RDA适配参数的组成、特点和作用,以及适配参数在雷达维护、标定中的重要应用,以便雷达保障人员在CINRAD/SA天气雷达的运行维护工作中能很好使用适配参数。CINRAD/SA天气雷达保障工作的实际经验表明,RDA适配参数在CINRAD/SA天气雷达的智能管理、运行控制、运行维护、系统标定、故障报警、信号处理和数据生成等方面具有重要作用,系统了解和充分运用RDA适配参数对保障CINRAD/SA天气雷达系统的高效、可靠运行具有十分重要的现实意义。     

天气现象仪自动化观测资料对比分析

介绍2011年12月至2012年6月在北京市观象台、庐山气象局对目前一些天气现象仪所进行的对比观测试验的过程和结果分析。参与此次为期7个月的对比观测试验仪器有3种类型,每种类型配备3套,分别由3家厂商提供。试验采用人工目测辅助摄像作为参考标准,测试了这些天气现象仪对各种不同天气现象观测的准确性。结果表明:各仪器观测降水现象的数据准确性均大于90%,能够满足业务需求。区分降水强度时,各仪器的降水捕获率在70%以上(雨强大于0.01mm/h);微量降水(雨强小于0.01mm/h)和混合型降水,各仪器降水捕获率相对较低。仪器观测视程障碍现象的数据准确性均大于80%,能够满足业务需求。其他现象由于样本数量相对较少,需要更多进一步试验,并改进算法。     

Recent Advances in Research of Lightning Meteorology

Lightning meteorology focuses on investigating the lightning activities in different types of convective weather systems and the relationship of lightning to the dynamic and microphysical processes in thunder- storms. With the development and application of advanced lightning detection and location technologies, lightning meteorology has been developed into an important interdiscipline between atmospheric electricity and meteorology. This paper mainly reviews the advances of lightning meteorology research in recent years in China from the following five aspects： 1） development of advanced lightning location technology, 2） char- acteristics of lightning activity in different convective systems, 3） relationship of lightning to the dynamic and microphysical processes in thunderstorms, 4） charge structure of thunderstorms, and 5） lightning data assimilation techniques and application to severe weather forecasting. In addition, some important aspects on future research of the lightning meteorology are proposed.