Mapgis在地质学中的应用

简要讨论了Mapgis的主要功能，重点阐述了Mapgis的地质制图技术、空间分析技术以及二次开发能力在地质学领域中的应用，并举例论述之。Mapgis的地质制图技术将纷繁复杂的传统地质制图过程简化，而且美观精确；空间分析技术可以将矢量数据和栅格数据综合制作出各种图形和图象文件，方便分析；地质工作者也可以运用Mapgis的二次开发能力来开发面向特定领域的系统。     

日照市短时冰雹定时-定点-定量预报

利用1960～2000年青岛、射阳、徐州3站08时探空资料及日照站08时地面气象资料，分析了日照地区出现的16次降雹天气的时空分布特征，在对降雹天气分型的基础上利用积云数值模式计算降雹因子，用降雹因子和单站要素因子建立历史降雹因子个例库，用历史实况资料建立实况个例库，用距离相似法实现日照地区短时冰雹定时、定点、定量的客观预报。     

根据i—f—j模式估计山西平陆地区的长期强震潜势

山西省平陆地区位于山西地震带南端，为了分析该地区未来的长期强需求潜势，本较系统地分析当地的破坏性地震及１５００年以来的有地震地震资料，并进一步应用中国在陆特征的地震轮回模式及其复发时间概率模型估算法当前特征地震轮回的平均时间间隔，以及从１９９５年起未来百年内复发强震的概率，结果表明：未来１００年来该地区复发强震的危险性很高，未来５０年内复发强震的危险性也不能排除。     

洪泽湖历史洪水分析(1736─1992年)

根据1736－1911年文献记载的洪泽湖年最高水位及1914－1992年湖区水文测站的水位、流量资料，进行了长、短序列的入湖洪峰流量及不同时段洪量的频率分析，进而推求出不同重视期的设计入湖洪量和洪水年份相当的重现期，并分析洪水的灾害特征，结果表明：1）洪泽湖历史上洪水发生频繁，1786、1851、1906年均发生过特大洪水，高堰志桩分别至163、23．4、16．1尺。2）1953年建库后，湖水位上升。年最高水位历年平均值较建库前升高了1．22m；多年平均水位升高了1．72m。3）1916－1992年淮河蚌埠站年入湖洪峰流量、最大3日洪量、最大30日洪量和年平均流量频率分析显示。1954年分别相当于20、20、45．5和30．3年一遇洪水。1991年分别相当于7．1、7．1、10和14．7年一遇洪水。1991年洪水总体上小于1954年，但灾情超过1954年．表明湖区受灾程度有加剧趋势。     

Doubtful Events Reported in Current Italian Earthquake Catalogues: The Medieval Earthquakes of Subiaco (Central Italy)

Within the framework of a study of the seismicity of the Aniene Valley (Central Italy), we analysed the medieval earthquakes of Subiaco (1216, 1227, 1299), the largest events reported for the area. Our main goal was to investigate some doubtful events reported in earthquake catalogues and, as such, currently utilised for seismic hazard estimates. A careful screening of the oldest available sources and their filiation pattern up to the present pointed out the uncertainty on the date and nature of these phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach based on the joint analysis of archaeological, geomorphologic and historical evidence allowed us to propose new interpretations concerning these events and their significance for the assessment of seismic hazard in the Aniene Valley. The main conclusion is that the dates of the 1216 and 1227 events are fairly unsupported. In particular, the 1216 earthquake could be dated back to between AD 1159 and 1181.     

The large earthquake of 8 August 1303 in Crete: seismic scenario and tsunami in the Mediterranean area

By conducting a historical review of this large seismic event in the Mediterranean, it has been possible to identify both the epicentral area and the area in which its effects were principally felt. Ever since the nineteenth century, the seismological tradition has offered a variety of partial interpretations of the earthquake, depending on whether the main sources used were Arabic, Greek or Latin texts. Our systematic research has involved the analysis not only of Arab, Byzantine and Italian chronicle sources, but also and in particular of a large number of never previously used official and public authority documents, preserved in Venice in the State Archive, in the Marciana National Library and in the Library of the Museo Civico Correr. As a result, it has been possible to establish not only chronological parameters for the earthquake (they were previously uncertain) but also its overall effects (epicentral area in Crete, Imax XI MCS). Sources containing information in 41 affected localities and areas were identified. The earthquake also gave rise to a large tsunami, which scholars have seen as having certain interesting elements in common with that of 21 July 365, whose epicentre was also in Crete. As regards methodology, this research made it clear that knowledge of large historical earthquakes in the Mediterranean is dependent upon developing specialised research and going beyond the territorial limits of current national catalogues.     

江苏及南黄海地区历史地震类型分布特征

通过对江苏地区及南黄海海域历史地震资料特点分析，将研究区历史地震类型分为相对安全类和相对危险类，并对地震类型的统计结果、地理分布特征及构造进行探讨. 结果表明:① 江苏及南黄海地区绝大多数中强以上历史地震类型为相对安全类，仅有13.8%的中强以上历史地震为相对危险类；② 江苏陆地、长江口以东海域和南黄海北部坳陷地区以相对安全类地震为主，苏中沿海南黄海海域地震类型分布较为复杂，相对安全类和相对危险类地震类型比例基本相当；③ 研究区历史地震类型统计结果和空间分布特征与现代地震序列类型实况非常吻合，反映本区地震活动具有继承性的特点.研究结果可以作为江苏省地震应急工作中震后早期趋势判定的参考依据.      

福建及台湾海峡地震预警工程架构探索

福建及台湾海峡是海陆板块碰撞到板内地震活动过渡带 ,东侧毗邻台湾板缘地震带 ,西侧为福建内陆板内地震活动区。这是得天独厚的观测研究大陆边缘地震构造带强震活动及板块动力学的良好地域。当前 ,我国进入全面建设小康社会历史时期 ,为防御地震造成社会灾害 ,实现以人为本 ,防患于未然 ,势必需要建构一个实用化的地震预警工程及其机制。本文即是在对福建及台湾海峡近 30多年以来观测研究的基础上 ,提出应用现代空间技术、数字地震、计算机网络等技术架构地震预警工程与机制的一种设想。     

Revising macroseismic data in Switzerland: The December 20, 1720 earthquake in the region of Lake Constance

Upgrading the Earthquake Catalog of Switzerland (ECOS) included revising the earthquake of 1720. This change has major importance for history and seismology.Although that quake has been the subject of several publications, none was based on critical methods. This re-evaluation of the event is built upon a new and more reliable database established after investigating archives and libraries. Using data from such historical sources, we assigned new site intensities, adopting the criteria established by the European macroseismic scale EMS 98 (Grünthal, 1998).We discovered that the event had been assigned an overestimated intensity, due to interpretation errors in former earthquake catalogs and compilations. We recommend reducing the intensity from I₀= VIII to I₀= VI (EMS 98). The moment magnitude is given as M_W= 4.6. Since the event had been considered the largest for its respective area, downgrading it now will influence the seismic hazard assessment for this region.     

Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system

Introduction In AD 1303, the great Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8 caused a very serious disaster, which killed over one hundred thousands people at least (Department of Earthquake Dis- *aster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau, 1995). On the occasion of commemorating this ca-tastrophe having occurred for 700 years, we have important problems that need to be answered: How long the average recurrence interval of the grea…