On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.     

Comment on “Is there a paleolimnological explanation for ‘walking on water’ in the Sea of Galilee?”

In a recent paper, Nof et al. (J Paleolimnol 35:417–439, 2006) suggest a physical mechanism which could account for the formation of ice on Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) in northern Israel. Based on the sea surface temperature record of sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea the authors argue that centennial-scale cold events had the potential to trigger local ‘springs ice’ formation on the lake in the past. Here, we demonstrate that a closer inspection of the paleoceanographic record in combination with correlation and regression analyses of meteorological data provides no evidence for such cold events in the lake region during the last 10,000 years. Thus, the formation of ‘springs ice’ on Lake Kinneret was unlikely at least since the beginning of the Neolithic.     

Harmonic wave propagation through viscoelastic heterogeneous media exhibiting mild stochasticity - I. Fundamental solutions

This work examines the propagation of time harmonic, horizontally polarized shear waves through a naturally occurring heterogeneous medium that exhibits viscous behaviour as well as random fluctuations of its elastic modulus about a mean value. As a first step, the governing equation, which is a heterogeneous Helmholtz equation, is solved using algebraic transformations and the relevant Green's function is obtained for two sets of boundary conditions, one corresponding to a finite depth layer and the other to an infinite layer. Viscous material behaviour is introduced by considering the depth-dependent elastic modulus to be a complex quantity. Subsequently, material stochasticity in the medium is handled through the perturbation approach by assuming that the elastic modulus has a small random fluctuation about its mean value. The final results are closed-form expressions for the mean value and covariance matrix of both the wave speed profile in the medium and the corresponding Green's function. In Part II, (Soil Dynam. Earth. Engng, 1996,15, 129-39), two examples concerning seismic wave propagation in soft topsoil and in sandstone serve to illustrate the methodology and comparisons are made with Monte Carlo simulations.     

某些幔源矿物晶体中异常消光现象的显微喇曼谱研究

异常消光是一种在幔源晶体中常可观察到的物性改变现象,然而它与晶体的真实结构之间的内在联系却至今仍未被认识清楚。本项工作试图用一种灵敏的微区结构探测新技术——显微激光喇曼谱方法研究幔源晶体中由构造作用导致的异常消光现象的结构本质。实验结果说明:上地幔高温蠕变作用对橄榄石及辉石主要感应了晶体内微区晶轴取向的变化,还未能产生明显的结构相变;不同的异常消光现象反映晶轴扭转的单位大小不同,并主要依赖于矿物晶体本身的结构特性。     

发展“三高”果业需重视大生态系统的耗散协调性──剖析龙泉花果山的大生态环境

发展高产优质高效果业，常会涉及到大生态系统的各类环境因子群。龙泉花果山的大生态系统主要是以风化岩体→紫色土容库→蜜桃等构成的向量大系统的综合反映，并呈现非均衡耗散结构的复杂协调性，这些因素直接制约“三高”果业的发展。     

茶叶寒冻害天气指数保险设计

以茶叶萌芽至展叶期寒冻害为突破口,利用1987—2016年福建省泉州市安溪县17个自动气象站2—4月的逐日气象数据及安溪各茶树种植区产量数据,确定茶叶寒冻害的天气指数保险气象指标,分析日极端最低气温与茶叶减产率的关系,建立了茶叶寒冻害指数模型。计算安溪不同区域茶叶种植区不同等级寒冻害的发生概率,应用纯保费率方法厘定了保险费率,并根据福建省政策性农业保险的实际情况,制定茶叶不同区域种植区寒冻害指数保险触发条件、赔付标准,设计了安溪县茶叶寒冻害天气指数保险合同。设计的茶叶寒冻害天气指数保险产品以客观气象数据作为定损依据,可以为茶农提供一种有效的风险转嫁方式,也为保险公司增加新险种提供了技术支撑。     

非均匀介质中交错网格高阶有限差分数值模拟

地震波场的数值模拟一直是地球物理学的一个重要的研究领域,而在数值正演模拟方法的研究中,计算精度和计算效率是评价该方法有效性及优越性的二个关键问题。这里从一阶速度—应力弹性波动方程出发,着重介绍如何构造离散化模型的网格,如何求解空间导数,如何选取边界条件等内容,从而更有效地提高数值计算的精度与计算效率。文中构造了不同类型的介质模型,并在交错网格中,利用高阶有限差分模拟非均匀介质的波场传播。模拟结果表明,该方法实现简单,具有很好地稳定性和较高的精度,能够直观、高效地反映出介质中波场的传播规律。     

Errors due to the anisotropic-common-ray approximation of the coupling ray theory

The common-ray approximation eliminates problems with ray tracing through S-wave singularities and also considerably simplifies the numerical algorithm of the coupling ray theory for S waves, but may introduce errors in travel times due to the perturbation from the common reference ray. These travel-time errors can deteriorate the coupling-ray-theory solution at high frequencies. It is thus of principal importance for numerical applications to estimate the errors due to the common-ray approximation applied. The anisotropic-common-ray approximation of the coupling ray theory is more accurate than the isotropic-common-ray approximation. We derive the equations for estimating the travel-time errors due to the anisotropic-common-ray (and also isotropic-common-ray) approximation of the coupling ray theory. The errors of the common-ray approximations are calculated along the anisotropic common rays in smooth velocity models without interfaces. The derivation is based on the general equations for the second-order perturbations of travel time.     

冻融循环对盐渍土黏聚力影响的试验研究

通过室内试验,测试了冻融循环对不同含盐量和不同含盐类别盐渍土黏聚力的影响规律。从结晶体位置变化、微观结构、盐类性质及未冻结水含量三个方面分析了冻融循环对盐渍土黏聚力的作用机理。研究结果表明,在含水率一定的情况下,无论是向土中加入Na2SO4,或者是CaCl2,经冻融循环后黏聚力都随冻融次数的增加而减小,且第1次和第2次循环为主要减小阶段;加入CaCl2后黏聚力的减小程度比加入等量Na2SO4后小;冻融循环过程中结晶体析出时位置的变化是土体黏聚力和干密度减小的主要原因;经SEM图片分析,大孔隙占总孔隙面积的比例随冻融次数的增加而减小;盐渍土中CaCl2溶液的含量对冻融循环中黏聚力的变化有重要影响。     

偏重钻铤在丁集矿冻结造孔施工中的应用

钻井技术的关键是预防及控制孔斜,通过对目前常用4种防斜钻具组合的适岩性、井深、井斜及钻效等指标对比,在冻结造孔施工中选用了适用地层广、防斜性能好并具有纠斜作用的偏重钻铤。为发挥偏重钻铤的防斜作用,宜增大转速,并使钻铤减去部分的重量应位于离轴线尽可能远的部位。在淮南丁集冻结孔施工的三十多口钻孔中,井斜一般均在0．5°以内,钻效超过2400m/台·月。