基于标准化降水指数的内蒙古地区干旱时空变化特征

利用内蒙古及周边地区70个气象站1951~2014年降水数据,采用标准化降水指数等方法,对内蒙古近64年气候干旱时空变化进行分析。结果表明:研究区近64年来除西部年际、春、秋、冬季,中部春、秋季及东部春、冬季气候趋于湿润外,其他均趋于干旱。中、东部年际、植(作)物生长期SPI在2001年和1990年左右发生突变,东部突变后趋于干旱并在2006年左右又发生明显转折后趋于湿润。西部在1960s干旱严重,中、东部在1990s至2000s干旱严重。西部年际SPI由西北向东南、东部由南向北干旱趋势速率呈阶梯状下降,中部干旱趋势速率较西、东部快;植(作)物生长期SPI空间变化与年际一致,但西、中部干旱趋势明显的区域有所扩大。     

1977 - 2017年雅江流域中下游大气/地面冻融指数时空变化特征

冻结指数是某个地区冻结期长短和严寒程度的综合表征, 融化指数是某个地区融化期长短及正积温高低的综合度量, 冻融指数也是计算活动层厚度和季节冻结深度的关键参数, 并可用于多年冻土分布预报。利用雅鲁藏布江（雅江）流域中下游11个气象站点的逐日气温、 地面温度数据计算了1977 - 2017年大气及地面冻融指数, 并分析其时空变化趋势。结果表明： 雅江流域中下游近40年来冻结指数呈显著下降趋势, 大气冻结指数、 地面冻结指数、 大气融化指数、 地面融化指数多年变化范围分别为208.4 ~ 508.0、 136.9 ~ 371.0、 2 171.8 ~ 2 499.8、 3 350.2 ~ 4 315.2 ℃·d; 其气候倾斜率分别为-36.6、 -48.7、 90.7、 115.8 ℃·d·（10a）^-1。雅江流域大气和地面冻结指数以海拔4 488.8 m的嘉黎最大, 海拔2 991.9 m的林芝最小; 大气和地面融化指数则以海拔3 560 m的泽当最大, 海拔4 488.8 m的嘉黎最小。流域内大气负温日数变化规律与地面负温日数变化趋势基本一致, 其气候倾向率分别是-6.28 d·（10a）^-1和-5.57 d·（10a）^-1。研究结果可为雅江流域冻土预报, 冻融作用所形成的冰缘地貌研究及其引发的地质灾害如冻融滑塌、 冻融泥流等灾害的监测与预防提供借鉴。     

对数正态分布下边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究

安全系数不能考虑边坡系统中实际存在的不确定性,可靠性理论缺乏丰富的工程实践经验,因此,将工程实践经验丰富的安全系数与先进的可靠性理论相结合,建立传统安全系数与可靠性相耦合的二元评价体系具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.设安全系数服从对数正态分布,取系列的最大可能安全系数（中值安全系数）和变异系数,计算得到最大可能安全系数及在不同变异系数下的破坏概率Pfo从而可由最大可能安全系数和可靠性（R=1-Pf）共同度量边坡的稳定性.将最大可能安全系数与边坡可靠性相乘,对最大可能安全系数进行折减,得到边坡可靠的安全系数.根据折减后安全系数的极限状态,可计算出不同最大可能安全系数的临界变异系数和临界破坏概率.根据不同最大可能安全系数及它的临界破坏概率,绘出边坡稳定性分区图,并建立安全系数和破坏概率相结合的边坡稳定性判别的二元指标体系.文中提供了小样本条件下,利用3倍方差原理估计参数方差的计算方法,并给出了边坡稳定性二元指标体系的研究实例.     

Evaluation of sensitivity of land surface hydrology representations with and without land–atmosphere feedback

This paper compares various ways of quantifying the importance of land–atmosphere feedback. A widely used land surface hydrology model is used in coupled (to a planetary boundary layer model) and uncoupled modes to compare the adequacy of different feedback indices. It is found that existing feedback indices are primarily based on ‘one factor at a time’ sensitivity analysis and cannot adequately capture the interaction between land and atmosphere. A new index is used which combines factorial design concepts and traditional sensitivity analysis. This index is shown to capture and quantify the strength of interaction between land surface parameters and atmosphere. To assess the effects of forcing characteristics on the stand alone model sensitivity, several ways to specify near-surface atmospheric conditions are evaluated. It is found that commonly used forcing conditions (e.g. model generated or observed time-series of near-surface atmospheric variables) may not be adequate to mimic the coupled model environment for evaluating the land surface representations. The partially coupled model sensitivity is shown to capture a major feedback loop related to water holding capacity, surface fluxes and near-surface atmospheric processes. These results suggest that sensitivity from the stand alone model should be interpreted with caution and future evaluations should strive to incorporate land–atmosphere feedback, at least within a partially coupled model. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generalization of TOPMODEL for a power law transmissivity profile

A generalization of the TOPMODEL equations for a power law vertical profile of hydraulic conductivity is introduced. The exponential profile of TOPMODEL is obtained as a limit case of the new general form. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

矿山地质环境评价中最佳评价尺度确定方法的研究及应用

矿山地质环境的评价对于矿产资源的开发利用、矿山环境的恢复治理有重要意义,在评价工作中最佳评价尺度的确定有助于提高评价结果的精确性和统一性。本次研究从矿山地质环境的评价内容出发,提出一种最佳评价尺度的确定方法。在不同尺度下,将评价区域按照边界划分成网格评价单元,通过定量化评价指标的尺度效应表现(异质性、一致性、信息量、破碎度),求出其随尺度变化的拟合函数,进而建立最佳评价尺度函数,并求出其评价适宜区间和最佳评价尺度。将该方法应用到福建省龙岩市新罗区、三明市大田县矿山地质环境评价中,得到新罗区和大田县的最佳评价尺度适宜区间分别为[997.8 m,1 194 m]、[955.5 m,1 297.8 m],最佳评价尺度分别为1 049.6 m、1 182.1 m。在该评价尺度区间内,所得到的评价结果基本一致,并且在最佳评价尺度下评价结果的效果更好,从而证明了该方法的可行性。研究表明,最佳评价尺度函数受到研究区范围、评价内容分布情况、自然地理情况等因素的综合影响。该研究成果可以为矿山地质环境评价工作中评价尺度的确定提供理论依据。     

Granite is an Effective Helium Source Rock: Insights from the Helium Generation and Release Characteristics in Granites from the North Qinling Orogen,China

Global helium(He) shortage is a challenging problem; however, the types of helium source rock and the mechanisms of He generation and release therein remain still poorly understood. In this study, in order to evaluate the potential of granite as an effective helium source rock, we collected granitic samples from the North Qinling Orogen, Central China, in the south of the helium-rich Weihe Basin. The helium generation and release behaviors in granite were studied through analysis of U and Th concentrations, EMPA images, and He and Ar concentrations and isotopic ratios extracted by crushing and stepwise heating. The results indicate that Ar has a better retention and a lower mobility than He. 3 He/4 He ratios released by crushing and stepwise heating are 0.016–0.056 RA and 0.003–0.572 RA, respectively, where RA is the atmospheric 3 He/4 He of 1.4×10-6, reflecting a crustal and radiogenic source. Helium concentrations extracted by the two ways are 0.13–0.95 ucm3 STP/g and 7.82–115.62 ucm3 STP/g, respectively, suggesting that matrix-sited He accounts for more than 98% of total helium preserved in granite. In addition, the total generated He amounts in granites are calculated based on the measured U and Th concentrations in granitic samples. Dividing the preserved He quantities by the generated He amounts, it turned out that less than 10% of He produced since the formation of the granite is preserved in the rock over geological time, suggesting that more than 90% generated He can be transferred to the Weihe Basin. Temperature and fracture are the two critical factors controlling He release. Based on the relationship between He diffusivity of granites and temperature and the He closure temperatures of a variety of U-and Th-rich minerals(27–250°C), we estimate that He can be partially released out of granite at the depths 400 m and totally released at the depths 7800 m. Fractures provide effective transfer of free He from deep source rocks to shallow reservoirs. Finally, a model on granite as an effective helium source rock is established. We suggest exploring He resources in hydrocarbon basins with granitic basement(or adjacent to granite bodies), high geothermal field, and young active fractures.     

Climatological Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulated by CWRF Regional Climate Model

Based on the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center from 1979 to 2016 and the ERSSTv4 sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional climate model CWRF was used to simulate the climate characteristics in East Asia. The results show that the CWRF model can well reproduce the average characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, including the location and intensity of the low-level continental cold high pressure and variation characteristics of wind field in high and low levels. The occurrence area and frequency of the north wind in the simulation and the reanalysis data were further calculated and compared. It is shown that they are basically consistent. The distribution of air temperature and precipitation over China are well represented by the model. The water vapor transport is also in good agreement with the reanalysis data. The water vapor from the Bay of Bengal plays a vital role in the precipitation over South China. The simulation results of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink show that the model can well simulate the thermal difference between the East Asian continent and the adjacent sea area. The analysis results indicate that CWRF model has the ability to simulate the main characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon.     

基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的玉米遥感估产方法

以内蒙古自治区开鲁县玉米作物为研究对象,将生育期内玉米遥感影像所提取的多种植被指数和实地采样点的测产数据作为训练值,利用BP(back propagation)神经网络和遗传算法优化BP(GA-BP)神经网络估产模型,得出网络预测的玉米产量数值。通过决定系数R 2和均方根误差RMSE,比较实测产量与预测产量之间的精度,BP神经网络模型R^2为0.8452,RMSE(%)为28.37;遗传算法优化BP神经网络模型R^2为0.9850,RMSE(%)为6.70,表明遗传算法优化BP神经网络估产模型具有一定可行性和可信度。