夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷预测模型研究

利用2009-2010年湖北电网日用电负荷资料和气象资料,提出了基于电网负荷的分解算法,将电网日最大负荷分解为基础负荷与气象敏感负荷2个主要分量.其中,气象敏感负荷与气温、相对湿度及风速的综合气象敏感负荷条件指数相关.提出了基于权重指数的湖北省面平均气象敏感负荷条件指数的算法.利用相关比法,分析了湖北省气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的非线性关系.基于均方偏差最小原理和非线性最小二乘法,建立了夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的多项式预测关系模型.经2010年9月模型应用检验表明,预测平均误差低于6％.该模型可用于夏季湖北省电力专业气象服务工作.     

1873～1996年东亚冬、夏季风强度指数及其主要特征

用1873～1996/1997年资料,延长计算了东亚冬夏季风强度指数,研究了指数的年际及年代际变化的主要特征。指出该指数与我国的冬、夏季天气的年际变化、年代际变化关系密切。还指出,该指数与印度季风强度正相关,并且能解释季风的准两年振荡。     

华东地区测震学指标异常配套和中强震对应关系初探

本文分析了部分地震学指标的物理意义。通过对华东地区1970年以来14个指标的全时间扫描,并使用华东地区Ms≥5.0地震进行对应,结果表明,选取Rm值、b值和AC值进行同步异常分析,能显著提高华东地区的有震报震率,但有漏报。对目前华东地区异常集中区(南黄海及其沿岸地区)进行时间扫描,结果显示该异常集中区未出现同步异常,认为该区域短期内发生中强地震的可能性不大。     

滑坡危险性预测模型的设计与实现

滑坡灾害的发生严重影响人类社会的生产生活,因此对滑坡灾害的预警预测工作一直是地质灾害监测和防治的重点,国内外众多学者都对此进行了相应研究。本文在前人的研究基础上把信息量模型和降雨诱发指数应用在滑坡预测研究中,充分考虑两者的耦合影响,建立了滑坡危险性预测模型,并完成了模型的开发工作。该模型实现了滑坡灾害危险性预测的快速化、自动化,并且已集成到江西省地质灾害预警预报分析决策系统中,得到了成功应用。     

地质环境容量与评价研究

本文系统总结了当今地质环境容量研究存在的主要问题及发展趋势,应用地质环境容量评价指标体系,初步建立了地质环境容量评价理论框架.在此基础上结合上海市主要环境地质问题,分析其主要影响因素,分层次选取合适的评价指标,对上海市地质环境容量进行实证分析.     

浙江省电子沙盘气象应用系统

用高程数据建立电子沙盘表面模型,并对高程数据、矢量数据和影像数据进行三维可视化处理,在三维场景中建立了渲染过的浙江省电子沙盘模型;以Microsoft.NET为开发平台,基于ArcGIS Engine构建了浙江省电子沙盘显示平台,实现电子沙盘的集成显示、基本地图操作、自动站叠加显示、属性查询、MICAPs第4类网格资料...     

Application of organic petrology and geochemistry to coal waste studies

Coal wastes produced during mining activities are commonly deposited in nearby dumps. These wastes mostly composed of minerals and variable amounts (usually 20-30%) of organic matter start to weather immediately after deposition. Oxidation of the organic matter can lead to self heating and self combustion as a result of organic and mineral matter transformations. The degree of alteration depends on the properties of the wastes, i.e., the maceral and microlithotype composition of the organic matter and its rank.Alteration of wastes also depends on the heating history, i.e., the rate of heating, final heating temperature, duration of heating, and the degree of air access. Although air is probably necessary to initiate and drive the heating processes, these usually take place under relatively oxygen depleted conditions. With slow heating, color of organic matter particles changes, irregular cracks and oxidation rims develop around edges and cracks, and bitumen is expelled. As a result, massive and detritic isotropic and strongly altered organic matter forms. On the other hand, higher heating rates cause the formation of devolatilization pores, oxidation rims around these pores and along cracks, vitrinite-bands-mantling particles, and bitumen expulsions.Organic compounds generated from the wastes include n-alkanes, iso-alkanes, alkylcyclohexanes, acyclic isoprenoids, mainly pristane, phytane and, in some cases, farnesane, sesquiterpanes, tri- and tetracyclic diterpanes, tri- and pentacyclic triterpanes, and steranes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (mostly with two- to five rings, rarely six rings), and phenols. The compounds formed change during the heating history. The fact that phenols are found in dumps where heating has not yet been completed, but are absent in those where heating ceased previously suggests the presence of water washing. The organic compounds formed may migrate within the dumps. However, when they migrate out of the dumps, they become a hazard to environment.This paper is a review on transformations of organic matter (both maceral composition and reflectance and chemical composition) in coal wastes deposited in coal waste dumps. Immediately after deposition the wastes are exposed to weathering conditions and sometimes undergo self heating processes.     

结合第8届国际探空仪系统比对试验探讨国产气球施放高度

根据阳江探空站高空气象探测用750g气象气球施放的实际高度的现状,结合中国大探中心组织国产GPS探空仪在阳江用国产2000g气象气球比对试验时施放的高度以及广东阳江第8届国际探空仪系统比对期间施放的实际高度,探讨雨天和高空相对湿度较大的气象条件下对国产气象气球施放高度的影响。结果显示,雨天或高空相对湿度较大时,对国产现有的气象气球施放的高度存在较大的影响。研究表明,解决了国产气象气球的球皮防雨、防潮问题,很大程度上解决了国产气象气球施放高度不稳定的难题。     

Measuring capital value in a commercial fishery: A distance function approach

The term “overcapitalized” is frequently used to describe the condition of various fisheries, and to explain why a fishery is in poor condition from a stock status perspective. Often, the concept of overcapitalization is associated with the number of active vessels in a fishery. Although vessel counts are important, they do not fully capture investment or disinvestment in a fishery, and only serve as a crude proxy for a richer concept of fishing capital. A better measure to judge whether overcapitalization is occurring would be the change in capital value for vessels operating, or permitted in a fishery, relative to a benchmark value. Unfortunately, data do not always exist to measure vessel value and associated changes through time. This study presents a method for calculating vessel capital value using a distance function, publicly available vessel sale price data, and non-parametric programming methods. Estimates of value for vessel attributes returned by the distance function are then used to estimate a total value for currently permitted vessels in the northeast region of the United States, and to construct a capital value index for vessels active in the squid, mackerel and butterfish (SMB) fishery between 1996 and 2016. Findings show that the total value of commercially permitted vessels in the northeast region is estimated to be between $606.6 and $769.7 million ($2016). Based on the constructed capital value index, the SMB fishery has undergone a period of disinvestment marked by both declining vessel numbers and capital value.