灰色系统灾变预报方法在风暴潮预报中的应用

本文把灰色系统灾变预报方法应用到风暴潮预报中，对逐年最大风暴潮增水资料确定一个阈值ξ，对于年最大风暴潮位资料大于阈值ξ的年份组成一个序列，用一阶线性模型GM（1，1）预报风暴潮灾的出现年份，结果表明：用GM（1，1）模型可较好地预报风暴潮灾的出现年份。     

新亚欧大陆桥新疆段暴雨灾变事件的灰色预测

通过对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段水害严重区段暴雨灾变事件的分析,确定暴雨灾变事件的临界雨强,并运用灰色灾变预测方法,根据暴雨灾变序列确立相应的灾变年份序列,运用ＧＭ（１,１）模型,分别求出灾变年份序列的ＧＭ（１,１）序号响应式和灾变年份预测式。     

Genomic resources for the spotted ragged-tooth shark Carcharias taurus

Genomic data can be a useful tool in the management and conservation of biodiversity. Here, we report the development of genomic resources for the spotted ragged-tooth shark Carcharias taurus using genome-wide DNA data from Illumina next-generation sequencing. We explored two commonly used genetic marker types: microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA. A total of 4 394 putative microsatellites were identified, of which 10 were tested on 24 individuals and found to have ideal properties for population genetic analyses. Additionally, we reconstructed the first complete mitochondrial genome of a South African spotted ragged-tooth shark, and highlight the most informative gene regions to facilitate future primer design. The data reported here may serve as a resource for future studies and can ultimately be applied in the sustainable conservation and fisheries management of this apex predator.     

多目标优选水下采油设施下放方法评价指标体系

水下采油设施下放是海上油气工程开发中的重要环节。经过长期发展,人们已研究出多种下放方法,但如何优选恰当的下放方法是尚待解决的问题。考虑海洋环境中可供数据源的复杂性、不确定性与不完整性,多目标、主客观要素并重是优选方法设计的重要准则。针对水下下放方法优选特点,建立对应评价指标体系。考虑评价指标体系多目标优选决策的特点,提出多目标非均一化灰色关联度模型;为更好地体现主客观要素并重并辩证表达决策者的主客观偏好,在非均一化处理中,运用回归原理与靶向偏差评价思想,提出变系数主客观权值修正模型。最后结合具体案例验证模型的可行性与有效性。结果表明,模型能够满足优选对象要求,对类似多目标主客观评价优选模型的建立具有一定借鉴意义。     

西北太平洋柔鱼丰度的灰色灾变预测

柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)为短生命周期的头足类,其资源丰度极易受海洋环境变化影响,年间波动较大。根据1995−2017年西北太平洋柔鱼渔业生产统计数据,以单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)作为资源丰度指数,运用灰色灾变预测方法对上、下限灾变年份建立GM(1, 1)模型,预测未来灾变年份。结果显示,以GLM模型标准化CPUE建立的下限灾变预测模型的平均相对误差为15.32%,上限灾变预测模型的平均相对误差为8.19%,模型精度检验等级均为Ⅰ级。研究认为,下一个资源丰年(CPUE大于2.39 t/(船·a))将出现在2021年,资源歉年(CPUE小于2.13 t/(船·a))将出现在2027年;太平洋年代际涛动与El Niño-La Niña事件是驱使柔鱼丰度大幅度波动的重要因素。该预测结果可为西北太平洋鱿钓生产企业和管理部门提供参考。     

Co-existence of seals and fisheries? Adaptation of a coastal fishery for recovery of the Baltic grey seal

A complex controversy emerged when the grey seal population in the Baltic Sea recovered after decades of stagnation. The seals now cause substantial economic losses to coastal fisheries. The paper analyses the attempts taken in Finland to mitigate the problems of fishermen. The mitigation attempts include the hunting of seals, fishing technology development, economic compensations and more comprehensive management approaches. These measures are discussed in light of the long-term sustainability and adaptability of a coastal fishery. This question is important with respect to further discussions on the possibility of the coastal fishery’s co-existence with seals and sheds light on more general goals for the adaptability in the management of social–ecological systems. The paper concludes that the more comprehensive measures taken have acknowledged the need to enhance the fishery’s adaptability, but the managerial approach they represent falls short of the requirements for successful adaptive management, especially in terms of embedding the management into specific coastal contexts.     

Population biology of Ischyrocerus commensalis,a crab‐associated amphipod,in the Southern Barents Sea: a multi‐annual summer study

Population biology of the amphipod Ischyrocerus commensalis Chevreux, 1900, a facultative commensal of the red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus (Tilesius, 1815), is here described on samples collected during summers 2005–2009 in Dalnezelenetskaya Bay (Southern Barents Sea, Russia). The studied features included infestation indices, size composition, morphometric, and reproductive parameters of the summer generation. During the studied period, prevalence and mean number of I. commensalis per host were 34.4% and 54.4 ± 3.3 individuals, respectively. The majority of amphipods were found on the host mouth parts, limbs, and gills. The amphipod sex‐ratio was significantly biased towards females (F:M = 1.36:1). The size frequency distributions observed in July and August were similar but in July the proportion of the smallest amphipods (<2.1 mm body length) was two times higher than that in August. All the amphipods with body length >5.1 mm were males or females. Length–weight relationships in female and male amphipods differed significantly, suggesting that females were heavier than the same‐sized males. The females carrying eggs in their brood pouches were the most abundant groups (54.8% in July 2009 and 51.6% in August 2005–2008). The minimal body length of a female which had released juveniles was 7.0 mm in July and 6.2 mm in August. The size at 50% maturity of I. commensalis females was estimated to be 6.58 mm. The number of eggs laid is positively linearly correlated with the size of a female. The proportion of the females with eggs in the latest developmental stage in July was 10 times higher than in August. The differences of biological features in symbiotic amphipods between the July and August may be explained by more intensive reproduction effort in the earlier month.     

内蒙古赤峰市达里湖渔业产量的灰色预测与分析

由于病害和产卵条件恶化等原因,内蒙古赤峰市达里湖的鱼类资源出现了衰退,经调整产业政策,渔业产量在大幅度下降后又有所回升。本文使用内蒙古赤峰市达里湖2000—2009年的渔业产量数据,并应用灰色预测模型对其未来5 a的渔业产量进行了预测。结果表明,使用全程数据进行预测的渔业产量将持续下降,与最近几年的渔业产量趋势明显不符,这是由于在数据序列的中段发生的渔业产业政策调整造成了产量大幅度下降,其惯性对预测结果产生了决定性影响,而仅使用产业政策调整后的数据进行预测,则渔业产量呈上升趋势,并有望恢复到历史最高水平,说明渔业产业政策调整有利于渔业资源的保护和可持续利用。本文的结果同时表明,应用于灰色预测的数据的外部条件的突然变化(如本文中的渔业产业结构调整),会对预测结果产生很大影响,在选择数据序列时应予以关注。此外如何对数据外部条件的突然变化进行量化评估,并嵌入灰色预测模型,使灰色预测模型能够应对数据外部条件的突然变化,也是今后的1个研究课题。     

渤海海域变质岩风化壳发育特征及其储层定量预测

随着渤海油田锦州25-1南、锦州20-2以及渤中26-2等风化壳型油气田的相继发现,以及近两年渤中19-6千亿方大气田的重大勘探突破,元古—太古宇变质岩逐步成为渤海海域潜山勘探层系的重点之一。为了研究渤海变质岩潜山风化壳的发育特征并建立其储层预测方法,通过对典型潜山取心、薄片、测井、常量元素以及物性资料分析,划分了变质岩潜山的风化壳纵向结构,明确了风化壳发育差异的控制因素,并以5项因素灰关联系数为介质,采用Q型聚类法对储层级别进行了优劣排序。研究结果表明：变质岩风化壳可以划分为5个纵向结构,其发育程度明显受岩性、构造和保存条件等因素的影响,其中,被前人忽视的上覆沉积环境作为风化壳的保存条件意义重大。对11口已钻井风化壳进行变量因子归类,由好到差划分了Ⅰ—Ⅳ 4个储层级别。利用该方法在渤中19-6风化壳预测中的应用效果较好。     

SAR卫星组网观测技术与海洋应用研究进展

SAR卫星的组网观测,较之于单卫星工作方式,不仅能够提高观测频率,还能挖掘SAR的多模式探测能力.本文介绍了SAR卫星组网的遥感观测技术发展现状,并总结了基于卫星组网的海洋动力环境监测和海上目标监测研究进展.在海洋动力环境遥感监测方面,多SAR卫星联合获得的同步数据能够互为补充,提高海洋动力环境信息的探测精度;在海上目...