南海大气温室效应纬向地带性的遥感观测

本文选取位于入射太阳辐射能量峰值所在的绿光通道(MODIS卫星4通道), 以及位于可太阳耀光探测长波辐射区间的中红外通道(MODIS卫星21通道)为观测窗口对, 遥感测量2000~2010年间南海研究区和东海对照区内, 不同纬度带的大气典型短波与长波通道的太阳耀光辐射比参数(引入晴空辐射平衡的描述性指标CSRR, 即Calibrated Sunglint Radiation Ratio)时间序列。 据此大气双程透射率比及太阳分谱辐照度比的相关函数CSRR, 了解南海大气温室效应纬向地带性的演变特征。经验模态分解方法分析结果表明, 南海的大气温室效应包含3个相对重要的分量:1)由低纬往中纬逐渐增大的, 受具有明显纬向地带性的水汽大储库与纬向地带性较弱的CO2小储库联合影响的长期变化趋势; 2)受 CO2、CH4、O3和气溶胶共同调控的准十年尺度分量; 3)从低纬往中纬逐渐由双峰转变为单峰分布的年尺度分量。由此可见, 关于地球-大气系统辐射平衡物理学参数地带性分布规律的观测, 有助于理解从辐射强迫到温度变化的气候响应机制, 对如何筛选简洁合理的第四纪气候评估模型具有参考价值。     

中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a需求和排放预测

 近年来HFC-134a作为中国汽车空调行业CFC-12制冷剂最主要的替代品,其消费量增长迅速,是中国消费量最大的HFCs（氢氟烃类物质）。以2005年为基线,通过制冷剂替代、技术进步、熟练操作和政策控制等情景假设,预测了中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a的需求量及排放量。结果表明：到2010和2015年,汽车空调HFC-134a的消费量将分别接近2.0万和3.5万t,排放量将分别接近1.6万和3.0万t,约折合排放21.0 和39.0 Mt CO₂当量。上述排放相对基线情景（即维持当前政策措施和不开展回收活动）,2010年和2015年减排温室气体分别为6.7 和13.0 Mt CO₂当量。     

温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合效应及动力机制研究

基于主要温室气体（CO₂、CH₄和N₂O）强迫因子和石笋δ¹⁸О观测资料（1~2002 年）,分别利用关联性耦合模型和非线性统计-动力学方法,分析温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合度的时序规律和定量反演模拟温室气体强迫对近2 000 a东亚亚热带季风演变影响的非线性趋势和相对贡献。研究发现：① 温室气体与季风演变耦合度的高低对应季风的强弱变化,即两者耦合作用越强,东亚亚热带季风越强;反之,两者耦合强度越小,东亚亚热带季风越弱;耦合度峰谷值对应季风极强降水和极端干旱时段。② 时序演变规律为：N₂O和CO₂相互作用与季风演变间耦合效应最强,成为东亚亚热带季风演变的主要驱动力。其次,N₂O一次项和CO₂非线性项对季风演变起主要的负反馈调节机制。③ 时序演变阶段上有所不同：1~180年,CH₄因子对季风演变主要起负反馈调节机制;180~1760年和1760~2002年,对季风演变起主要的驱动和调节机制分别为CO₂因子和N₂O因子;但1900年后N₂O和CO₂相互作用与季风演变的耦合驱动效应近百年来明显增强,耦合度在中等-较强（或极强）之间来回波动转换,耦合作用明显增强,在耦合度由较强（或极强）转弱至中等时,东亚亚热带季风也随之减弱。     

温室气体清单编制方法研究进展

温室气体清单反映了温室气体排放和吸收的状况,是制定与衡量应对气候变化政策和措施的基础。虽然联合国规定了国家清单采用生产者责任方法编制,但很多研究认为该方法存在“碳泄漏”,容易造成发达国家转移减排责任等问题,并提出了其他清单编制方法。本文对已有的温室气体清单编制方法研究进行了总结,将其归纳为3大类:生产者责任方法、消费者责任方法和生产—消费者共同责任方法,并进一步总结了3大类方法下的多种估算方法;通过图表、数据等方式分析了各类方法的原理、优点及局限性。通过已有的研究分析推断,未来一段时间内生产者责任方法仍将是推荐的国家温室气体清单编制方法。最后展望了我国国家和省级温室气体清单编制研究方向。     

Does I = PAT Work in Local Places?

An aspect of global change currently not well understood is how processes operating on spatial scales finer than those used in recent global circulation models (GCMs) contribute to changes in atmospheric composition and the subsequent changes in climate. We use the ‘IPAT’ formulation as a framework to test relationships among social driving forces and user group greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northwestern North Carolina. Using regression, correlation, and bivariate mapping to examine relationships between a suite of socioeconomic variables and GHG emissions for the residential, commercial/industrial, and agricultural end‐user categories, we find that various measures of population and affluence serve equally well as explanatory variables.     

Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.     

H3 as a trap for noble gases: 1—The case of Argon

The possibility of H₃⁺ playing a role as a sink for noble gases has been investigated in the case of Argon. Elaborate quantum methods (ab initio Coupled Cluster and density functional BH&HLYP levels of theory) have been shown to reproduce the rotational constants within 0.3% together with the only known IR frequency on the test case of Ar…D₃⁺. Dissociation energies of (Ar)_n…H₃⁺ as a function of cluster size, i.e. 7.2 (n=1), 3.7 (n=2), 3.6 (n=3), 1.6 (n=4), 1.7 (n=5) kcal/mol, follow the pattern established experimentally for (Ar)_n…H₃⁺ and (H₂)_n…H₃⁺ series. Rotational constants and harmonic frequencies of (Ar)_n…H₃⁺ (n=1-3) are presented.     

复合体系有机气体氧化生成二次有机气溶胶研究进展

生物源与人为源有机气体氧化形成的二次有机气溶胶(SOA)对气候变化和人类健康具有重要影响。SOA的产生与其前体物研究已取得了一些进展,但由于有机气体之间存在复合相互作用以及SOA形成机制复杂,目前对不同有机气体混合体系中SOA的形成认知还比较匮乏。因此,深入了解有机气体多源、复杂的相互作用,摸清有机气体的大气氧化机制、SOA的形成及影响等对深入理解真实大气有机气体化学演变具有指导意义。本文旨在了解复合体系有机气体氧化生成SOA的相关研究进展。一方面总结了复合体系有机气体产生SOA质量浓度、产率、成分、挥发性、光学性质等的变化,侧重于实验室复合体系有机气体氧化对SOA形成的多重影响以及SOA组成元素、分子构成的变化特征,并总结了目前实验室基于模型对复合体系SOA生成的模拟研究和拟合情况;另一方面探究了环境因素,如相对湿度(RH)、温度(T)以及无机气体,如氮氧化物(NO_x)、二氧化硫(SO₂)、氨气(NH₃)等对复合体系有机气体形成SOA的影响。     

The Rumuruti chondrite group

Since 1994, the Rumuruti (R) chondrites have been recognized as a new, well-established chondrite group differing from carbonaceous, ordinary, and enstatite chondrites. The first R chondrite, Carlisle Lakes, was found in Australia in 1977. Meanwhile, the number has increased to 107 (December, 2010). This group is named after the Rumuruti meteorite, the first and so far the only R chondrite fall. Most of the R chondrites are breccias containing a variety of different clasts embedded in a clastic matrix. Some textural and mineralogical characteristics can be summarized as follows: (a) the chondrule abundance in large fragments and in unbrecciated rocks is ∼35–50 vol%; (b) Ca,Al-rich inclusions are rare; (c) the olivine abundance is typically 65–78 vol%; (d) the mean chondrule diameter is ∼400 μm; (e) in unequilibrated R chondrites, low-Ca pyroxene is dominating, whereas in equilibrated R chondrites it is Ca-rich pyroxene; (f) the typical olivine in a metamorphosed lithology is ∼Fa_38–40; (g) matrix olivine in unequilibrated, type 3 fragments and rocks has much higher Fa (∼45–60 mol%) compared to matrix olivines in type 4–6 lithologies (∼Fa_38–41); (h) spinels have a high TiO₂ of ∼5 wt%; (i) abundant different noble metal-bearing phases (metals, sulfides, tellurides, arsenides) occur. The exception is the metamorphosed, type 5/6 R chondrite La Paz Icefield 04840 which contains hornblende, phlogopite, and Ca-poor pyroxene, the latter phase typically occurring in low-grade metamorphosed R chondrites only.In bulk composition, R chondrites have some affinity to ordinary chondrites: (a) the absence of significant depletions in Mn and Na in R chondrites and ordinary chondrites is an important feature to distinguish these groups from carbonaceous chondrites; (b) total Fe (∼24 wt%) of R chondrites is between those of H and L chondrites (27.1 and 21.6 wt%, respectively); (c) the average CI/Mg-normalized lithophile element abundances are ∼0.95 × CI, which is lower than those for carbonaceous chondrites (≥1.0 × CI) and slightly higher than those for ordinary chondrites (∼0.9 × CI); (d) trace element concentrations such as Zn (∼150 ppm) and Se (∼15 ppm) are much higher than in ordinary chondrites; (e) the whole rock Δ¹⁷O of ∼2.7 for R chondrites is the highest among all meteorite groups, and the mean oxygen isotope composition is δ¹⁷O = 5.36 ± 0.43, δ¹⁸O = 5.07 ± 0.86, Δ¹⁷O = +2.72 ± 0.31; (f) noble gas cosmic ray exposure ages of R chondrites range between ∼0.1 and ∼70 Ma. More than half of the R chondrites analyzed for noble gases contain implanted solar wind and, thus, are regolith breccias. The 43 R chondrites from Northern Africa analyzed so far for noble gases seem to represent at least 16 falls. Although the data base is still scarce, the data hint at a major collision event on the R chondrite parent body between 15 and 25 Ma ago.