Study and application of an improved four-dimensional variational assimilation system based on the physical-space statistical analysis for the South China Sea

The four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) has been widely used in meteorological and oceanographic data assimilation. This method is usually implemented in the model space, known as primal approach (P4D-Var). Alternatively, physical space analysis system (4D-PSAS) is proposed to reduce the computation cost, in which the 4D-Var problem is solved in physical space (i.e., observation space). In this study, the conjugate gradient (CG) algorithm, implemented in the 4D-PSAS system is evaluated and it is found that the non-monotonic change of the gradient norm of 4D-PSAS cost function causes artificial oscillations of cost function in the iteration process. The reason of non-monotonic variation of gradient norm in 4D-PSAS is then analyzed. In order to overcome the non-monotonic variation of gradient norm, a new algorithm, Minimum Residual (MINRES) algorithm, is implemented in the process of assimilation iteration in this study. Our experimental results show that the improved 4D-PSAS with the MINRES algorithm guarantees the monotonic reduction of gradient norm of cost function, greatly improves the convergence properties of 4D-PSAS as well, and significantly restrains the numerical noises associated with the traditional 4D-PSAS system.     

受迫摆方程的伪概周期解

利用伪概周期函数的性质和Banach压缩映像原理研究受迫摆方程的伪概周期解问题,证明伪概周期解的存在性及在条件‖y-π‖L∞<π2下的唯一性。     

滇西纵向岭谷区河谷形态特征、发育规律及成因

为了揭示滇西纵向岭谷区河谷形态特征及其发育规律,采用1∶5万DEM图件,利用ARCG IS软件提取研究区41个河谷断面的有关基础数据,据此计算了河谷横断面的宽深比、半高宽深比、断面面积、凹度、不对称系数及河谷纵剖面特征的指标。结果表明,纵向岭谷区北部河谷横断面的宽深比很小,其宽深比在4~16间,但沿流向往南有明显增大的趋势,最大达到24。这是由于北部的构造抬升作用强从而引起该区更强列的河流下蚀作用的结果。河谷横断面的凹度显示大多数河谷属于"V"型谷,表明研究区的河流仍然以下切过程为主。谷宽不对称系数及谷面不对称系数揭示了研究区河谷横断面主要是左倾型河谷,即河谷断面上河道左部谷坡较缓,这是强势西南季风在河流左岸迎风坡形成强降水带和在河流右岸背风坡形成弱降水带的雨水差异侵蚀引起的。河谷纵剖面具有明显的下凹特性,凹度在1.40~1.65间。河道比降具有沿程变小的趋势,并遵循指数衰减关系,平均比降在1.22‰~1.85‰间。在纵向岭谷区北部,响应构造抬升作用的西强东弱的现状,河流主河道的比降具有从西向东变小的趋势。     

缝洞型低渗透碳酸盐岩油藏产量递减曲线分析

针对缝洞型低渗碳酸盐油藏,建立考虑启动压力梯度和动边界共同影响的三重介质低渗透油藏非线性非稳态渗流模型.鉴于数学模型的非线性和非齐次性,通过引入新定义的压力(量纲一)线性化压力扩散方程,应用Laplace变换和Duhamel原理结合Stehfest数值反演对模型进行求解,获得三重介质低渗油藏产量递减典型曲线,在产量递减双对数图上出现3个递减阶段和2个相对平缓稳定阶段;分析启动压力梯度、溶洞窜流系数、基质窜流系数、裂缝弹性储容比和溶洞弹性储容比与基质弹性储容比之比等敏感参数对产量(量纲一)的影响规律.计算分析表明,启动压力梯度越大,中后期产量递减曲线下降幅度越大.通过绘制的产量递减曲线图版,可以预测缝洞型低渗透碳酸盐岩油藏未来产量的变化.     

基于两相流低渗油藏合理注采井距确定方法

目前确定低渗油藏合理注采井距的方法,主要以启动压力梯度为判断基础,而实际生产过程中两相渗流阻力也有影响.从渗流力学出发,考虑非活塞驱替两相流及启动压力梯度,分别以油相区、油水两相区及纯水区的渗流数学表达式为基础,得出基于两相渗流低渗油藏合理注采井距的新方法,并通过实例计算与结果对比证实其理论的合理性与可靠性.实例计算得出注采压差为40.0MPa,渗透率为1.0×10-3μm2时油藏合理注采井距为130m.考虑两相渗流确定的合理注采井距随渗透率增大而增大,但增长幅度随渗透率的增大而减缓,且渗透率与井距呈近似幂函数关系;随渗透率增大,新旧方法确定的井距相差越来越大,因此计算合理注采井距时,应考虑启动压力梯度与油水两相渗流阻力共同作用,以使其计算结果更加合理可靠.     

理论模型分析卡尔曼滤波在航空全张量磁力梯度测量中的应用效果

航空全张量磁力梯度测量数据中包含非常复杂的运动噪声,在频谱图中从低频至高频均有分布,并以白噪声为主,如何有效压制运动噪声是一个较大的挑战.传统的数字滤波只能滤除指定频段的噪声,对于混叠在全张量磁力梯度有用信号中的噪声不能有效分离.鉴于卡尔曼滤波是一种快速、高效和实时的最优估计方法,笔者将其应用到航空全张量磁力梯度数据处...     

夏季印度洋海温偶极子对冬季东亚高空急流的影响研究

基于1979—2019年ERA5、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及多套海温资料,分析夏季印度洋偶极子模态对东亚高空急流的影响,并对热力动力机制展开探讨。结果表明,当夏季印度洋偶极子为正(负)位相,即夏季印度洋西部出现暖(冷)异常,东部出现冷(暖)异常时,冬季的东亚副热带急流增强(减弱),极锋急流强度减弱(增强)。伴随着印度洋偶极子位于正位相,增强(减弱)的经向温度梯度,加强(减少)的低层大气斜压性和较强(较弱)的瞬变涡动动能,易导致冬季的副热带急流增强(极锋急流减弱)。进一步利用多元线性回归方法定量区分热力和动力因子的相对贡献,夏季印度洋偶极子主要通过热力作用影响两支急流。比较两个动力因子发现,极锋急流的减弱主要以大气斜压性为主,而副热带急流的加强则以涡动动能为主。     

多时滞系统的不稳定性

利用比较原理结合向量Lyapunov函数研究一类多滞后线性时变系统的不稳定性,并在此基础上进一步研究一类多滞后非线性系统及多滞后区间系数系统的不稳定性,给出相关定理,丰富已有文献的相应结果。     

山东省层状云系中湍流扩散系数的分布特征

计算了山东省不同天气系统、不同时间云中和晴空中的湍流扩散系数,主要结果为：云中３～４ｋｍ高度层间的扩散系数主要在２０～７０ｍ２ｓ－１间,晴空小于３０ｍ２ｓ－１;云中扩散系数的平均值一般随高度增加而增大,冬、夏半年各高度层上的Ｋ值相关不大。     

Observational Study on the Supercooled Fog Droplet Spectrum Distribution and Icing Accumulation Mechanism in Lushan,Southeast China

A fog monitor, hotplate total precipitation sensor, weather identifier and visibility sensor, ultrasonic wind speed meter,an icing gradient observation frame, and an automated weather station were involved in the observations at the Lushan Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi Province, China. In this study, for the icing process under a cold surge from 20–25 January2016, the duration, frequency, and spectrum distribution of agglomerate fog were analyzed. The effects of rain, snow, and supercooled fog on icing growth were studied and the icing and meteorological conditions at two heights(10 m and 1.5 m)were compared. There were 218 agglomerate fogs in this icing process, of which agglomerate fogs with durations less than and greater than 10 min accounted for 91.3% and 8.7%, respectively. The average time interval was 10.3 min. The fog droplet number concentration for sizes 2–15 μm and 30–50 μm increased during rainfall, and that for 2–27 μm decreased during snowfall. Icing grew rapidly(1.3 mm h-1) in the freezing rain phase but slowly(0.1 mm h-1) during the dry snow phase. Intensive supercooled fog, lower temperatures and increased wind speed all favored icing growth during dry snow(0.5 mm h-1). There were significant differences in the thickness, duration, density, and growth mechanism of icing at the heights of 10 m and 1.5 m. Differences in temperature and wind speed between the two heights were the main reasons for the differences in icing conditions, which indicated that icing was strongly affected by height.