Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.     

Numerical study of baroclinic tides in Luzon Strait

The spatial and temporal variations of baroclinic tides in the Luzon Strait (LS) are investigated using a three-dimensional tide model driven by four principal constituents, O₁, K₁, M₂ and S₂, individually or together with seasonal mean summer or winter stratifications as the initial field. Barotropic tides propagate predominantly westward from the Pacific Ocean, impinge on two prominent north-south running submarine ridges in LS, and generate strong baroclinic tides propagating into both the South China Sea (SCS) and the Pacific Ocean. Strong baroclinic tides, ∼19 GW for diurnal tides and ∼11 GW for semidiurnal tides, are excited on both the east ridge (70%) and the west ridge (30%). The barotropic to baroclinic energy conversion rate reaches 30% for diurnal tides and ∼20% for semidiurnal tides. Diurnal (O₁ and K₁) and semidiurnal (M₂) baroclinic tides have a comparable depth-integrated energy flux 10–20 kW m⁻¹ emanating from the LS into the SCS and the Pacific basin. The spring-neap averaged, meridionally integrated baroclinic tidal energy flux is ∼7 GW into the SCS and ∼6 GW into the Pacific Ocean, representing one of the strongest baroclinic tidal energy flux regimes in the World Ocean. About 18 GW of baroclinic tidal energy, ∼50% of that generated in the LS, is lost locally, which is more than five times that estimated in the vicinity of the Hawaiian ridge. The strong westward-propagating semidiurnal baroclinic tidal energy flux is likely the energy source for the large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves found in the SCS. The baroclinic tidal energy generation, energy fluxes, and energy dissipation rates in the spring tide are about five times those in the neap tide; while there is no significant seasonal variation of energetics, but the propagation speed of baroclinic tide is about 10% faster in summer than in winter. Within the LS, the average turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate is O(10⁻⁷) W kg^{− 1} and the turbulence diffusivity is O(10⁻³) m²s⁻¹, a factor of 100 greater than those in the typical open ocean. This strong turbulence mixing induced by the baroclinic tidal energy dissipation exists in the main path of the Kuroshio and is important in mixing the Pacific Ocean, Kuroshio, and the SCS waters.     

Variations of Kuroshio geostrophic transport south of Japan estimated from long-term IES observations

Two inverted echo sounders were maintained on coastal and offshore sides of the Kuroshio south of Japan from October 1993 to July 2004. Applying the gravest empirical mode method, we obtained a time series of geostrophic transport. Estimated transports generally agree well with geostrophic transports estimated from hydrography. Their agreement with the hydrographic transports is better than that of transports estimated from satellite altimetry data. The geostrophic transport is expressed as the surface transport per unit depth multiplied by the equivalent depth. The geostrophic transport varies mostly with the surface transport and fractionally with the equivalent depth. Seasonal variation of the geostrophic transport has a minimum in March and a maximum in September, with a range of about one fifth of the total transport.     

Elasticity soltion of rupture model of shallow earthquake

Based on the theory of elastic mechanics, and using the typical rupture model of shallow earthquake, the authors considered the shallow earthquake as a plane mechanical problem, which was constructed the corresponding mechanical model. By the stress components' formulas of the semi-infinite model acted by the finite even shearing force, the main stress is deduced. It is clear that the sector on the right of the center section is squeezed zone, where the maximum principal stress points at the "source of stress", and that on the left is tensile zone, where the minimum principal stress points to the "source of stress".     

热带太平洋次表层三维海温距平场的EOF分析

应用太平洋次表层海温距平资料构造了一个立体的西低东高的四级阶梯模型,使用EOF方法对此模型进行时空分解,重点讨论了分解结果与ENSO循环的关系,并对Nino 3距平指数进行试预报,结果表明,用 EOF分解的第一主分量代表暖池-厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)模态,第二主分量代表次表层温度距平的东西运移模态,厄尔尼诺事件正是东西运移模态突变的结果.时滞相关分析估算,一次ENSO循环的平均周期约为41个月,厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜模态与温度距平的东西运移模态的位相差平均约为9.7个月.应用逐步回归方法得到超前Nino 3距平指数3、6和12个月的3个预报方程.预报结果表明,第一、第二时间系数对Nino 3距平指数均具有一定的预报价值,预报时效可达1 a左右.     

沙质海岸强浪作用下沿岸输沙问题研究

在沙质海岸上修建导流堤、丁坝等会引起局部海域水沙动力条件的改变和海床冲淤调整,因此准确预测沿岸输沙率是海岸工程建设前进行优化设计的基础条件之一.首先构建了刻画高强度推移质输沙过程中固-液混合体运动的理论模型,通过寻求模型的特解并推导成1D沿岸输沙率公式.该公式适宜计算强浪作用下的推移质输沙率,已得到了大型波浪水槽、往复流水道和海滩现场实测输沙率资料的良好验证.通过与物理模型试验实测输沙量结果的比较,进一步表明该公式能够较好地预测沙质海岸在寒潮大风浪(或台风浪)作用下的高强度输沙量(骤淤量).     

港域波浪数学模型的改进与验证

通过物理模型对改进的港内波浪传播变形数学模型进行验证。该数学模型以推广的时变缓坡方程为控制方程,采用含松弛因子的ADI法求解,并对波浪反射和透射边界模拟方法进行改进。先通过物理模型试验确定斜向浪入射条件下抛石防波堤前的波浪反射系数,作为数学模型中部分反射边界模拟的依据。然后进行了一个典型港口内波浪折射、绕射和反射的模型试验,测量港内波浪分布。对比模型试验和数学模型计算的结果表明,数学模型可较好地模拟港内复杂地形和边界条件下规则波和不规则波的传播变形。     

舟山本岛北部灌门水道及邻近海域潮波特性初步研究

依据2004年在舟山灌门水道及邻近海域获取的同步潮位和潮流资料,对该海域的潮波特性进行了统计和分析,并对分析过程中发现的主要半日分潮经过灌门水道时振幅有较大幅度减小的现象进行了初步研究,认为截面积急剧变化的水道,潮波势能向动能的转换是产生主要半日分潮振幅减小的一个重要因素。这一结论或许有助于解释M2分潮波通过舟山群岛海域振幅明显减小的现象。