Geoid from geopotential model in the Taiwan area

The geoid undulation on GRS80 in the Taiwan area at half‐degree grid points has been calculated using the reduced 30’ × 30’ block mean gravity anomalies and the OSU91A geopotential coefficient set up to degree and order 360. The OSU91A results have been used to compare with WGS84, CEM10C, and OSU86F geoid undulations determined in 18 first‐order triangulation stations of the Taiwan Geodetic Datum 1980 (TGD80). Comparisons have also been made between these free‐air anomalies determined from OSU91A, and terrestrial gravity anomalies. It has been found that the average difference between the OSU91A model‐derived, and 243 actual point free‐air anomalies is 16.8 ± 48.0 mgal. It has also been found that more reliable and dense terrestrial gravity data are needed, both for terrestrial observations and for the OSU91A model, to achieve the very high‐precision geoid on GRS80 in the area of study.     

500 hPa位势高度场极端天气事件的NCEP集合概率预报效果分析

基于百分位方法,首先通过构建气候等概率区间得到了位势高度场极端天气事件区分方法,并给出了相应的预报结果检验评价方案;以此为基础,对2003年夏季亚欧区域的500hPa位势高度场极端天气事件的NCEP集合概率预报效果进行了深入分析,得到如下结论：1）分析时段和区域内的极端事件的发生频率比气候平均状况略偏高。NCEP集合预报系统对异常偏低的极端事件的预报易偏高,但相对比较可靠;对相对异常偏高极端事件的预报频率随着预报时效的增大而减小,时效小于3d时预报频率偏高,时效大于5d时显著偏低,预报可靠性相对差一些。2）EV（economic value,经济价值）分析表明,NCEP集合预报系统对偏高（低）极端事件的概率预报效果明显高于正常天气事件。3）预报命中率分析表明,在高概率阈值下,预报命中率较低,这与预报系统在部分个例中的不发散有关。随着概率阈值的降低,预报命中率稳步提高,说明集合成员的发散使之可以覆盖实况可能出现的区间,从而得到更好的预报效果。     

块对角最小二乘方法在确定全球重力场模型中的应用

分析研究了最小二乘求解重力场模型的六种位系数排列方式下的块对角形态及三种不同条件下的块对角近似：BD-1、BD-2、BD-3,探讨了块对角最小二乘方法在联合早期卫星重力场模型和最新GRACE-only模型中的应用,通过实验计算,结果表明,块对角最小二乘方法较之于积分方法,能更好的提高所恢复模型的精度,说明在卫星重力飞速发展、地面重力数据不断完善的今天,块对角最小二乘法在超高阶地球重力场模型构建方面的优势逐渐突出。     

Toward Multiresolution Estimation and Efficient Representation of Gravitational Fields

In this paper we demonstrate performance of several local and multi-resolution gravity models derived from existing spherical harmonic models. A model of this type was provided to USAFSC in 1997, and additional variants have been developed since then. We also begin to address the problem of estimating multi-resolution models directly from gravity measurements. We hope to demonstrate that it is reasonable to expect gravity models with greater accuracy and flexibility once the spherical harmonic basis has been eliminated from the process.     

Association between winter temperature in China and upper air circulation over East Asia revealed by canonical correlation analysis

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to study the relationship between the winter temperature in China and the circulation at 500 hPa over East Asia. CCA identifies a number of paired patterns that depend on Principle Component (PC) truncation of the two fields. Retaining more PCs usually gives more physically meaningful CCA patterns, but the leading paired pattern has often less explained variance. When fewer PCs are adopted, the leading pattern possesses larger variance. However, it is often distorted in comparison with PC or rotated PC patterns. Various combinations with different PC and CCA patterns remained were tried, which shows that retaining as many PCs as possible and using the first several CCAs instead of only the first give most reasonable connection mechanisms. A statistical downscaling model based on CCA modes linking temperature with circulation was established to quantify the extent to which temperature variation can be explained by circulation. The model was optimised by varying numbers of the PCs and the CCA modes retained. With 13th PC truncation in the circulation and 8th PC truncation in the temperature as well as five CCA modes retained, the optimal CCA model is achieved based on cross-validation. The optimal downscaling model accounts for 47.5% temperature variance on average. However, there is a remarkable regional difference, which ranges from 10% to 70% in brier-based score (BBS). It is concluded that 500-hPa circulation is strongly linked to surface temperature in parts of the country, but it alone is not sufficient to achieve a successful statistical downscaling of the temperature for whole China.     

Downstream development of baroclinic waves in the midlatitude jet induced by extratropical transition: A case study

This study uses eddy kinetic energy analysis and a targeting method to investigate how an extratropical transition(ET)event induced downstream development(the modification of the midlatitude flow downstream of the ET system) in the midlatitude jet environment. The downstream development showed distinct characteristics of "coupling development" and being "boundary-trapped". Eddies(potential disturbances) first developed at the upper levels, and these triggered lower-level eddy development, with all eddies decaying away from the tropopause and the surface. Thereafter, a lower-level eddy caught up with the upper-level eddy ahead of it, and they coupled to form a cyclone extending through the whole troposphere. Vertical ageostrophic geopotential flux may be a crucial dynamic factor throughout the eddy's lower-level growth, boundary-trapping,and coupling development.Together with barotropic conversion, the ageostrophic geopotential fluxes that were transported from Hurricane Fabian(2003) to the midlatitudes by the outflow led to downstream ridge development in the upper-level jet. The strong downstream advection of eddy kinetic energy in the exit region of the jet streak triggered downstream trough development. The well-known ridge–trough couplet thus formed. The vertical ageostrophic fluxes that were transported downward from the developed upper-level systems converged near the surface and resulted in lower-level eddy growth. Baroclinic conversion was negligible near the boundaries, while it was the main source of eddy kinetic energy at mid-levels. In the upper-level jet, potential energy was converted to the mean kinetic energy of the jet, which in turn was converted to eddy kinetic energy through barotropic conversion.     

1981—2013年6—7月江淮地区切变线及暴雨统计分析

利用第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)提供的39个全球气候模式模拟的1961—2005年逐月500 hPa位势高度场资料,以及同期美国国家环境预测中心再分析资料,通过经验正交函数分解提取主要模态,基于泰勒图方法、概率密度函数的Brier评分和显著性评分指标,探讨CMIP5模式对东亚500 hPa高度场主要模态时空结构的模拟能力,寻求具有较好东亚环流型态模拟能力的气候模式以及模拟较好的主模态。结果表明:(1) CMIP5模式能够模拟出东亚500 hPa高度场主要模态,且各模式对冬季主要模态时空结构的模拟能力都高于夏季。(2) 各模式对冬季模态(西太平洋遥相关型)模拟能力最强,第3模态最差,对冬季主要模态空间结构模拟较好的模式为IPSL-CM5B-LR、MPI-ESM-P、CMCC-CMS、FGOALS-g2、HadGEM2-ES;夏季第1模态空间结构模拟能力最强,其次分别为第2模态和东亚-太平洋型(简记第3模态),西太平洋遥相关型较差,对夏季主要模态空间结构模拟较好的模式为ECEARTH、CanESM2、CMCC-CM、GFDL-ESM2G、IPSL-CM5A-MR。(3)对主要模态时间系数概率密度函数特征的模拟评估表明,模式对冬季第2模态概率密度函数的模拟较好,其次为西太平洋遥相关型,其主要模态时间系数的概率密度函数模拟较好的模式为CESM1-FASTCHEM、HadGEM2-ES、INM-CM4、GISS-E2-H、BCC-CSM1-1;模式对夏季第2模态时间系数的概率密度函数模拟较好,其次分别为第3模态、西太平洋遥相关型,其主要模态时间系数概率密度函数模拟较好的模式为CCSM4、HadGEM2-CC、GFDL-CM3、MRI-CGCM3、NorESM1-M。(4)综合时空结构模式模拟能力,对冬季主要模态模拟较好的前5个模式为HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5B-LR、CESM1-FASTCHEM、INM-CM4、BCC-CSM1-1;夏季前5个模式为ECEARTH、CMCC-CM、CCSM4、CANESM2、MIROC5。     

三江地区不同场源重力场特征及其与构造、地震的关系

利用重力场实测资料及最新的高分辨率超高阶重力位模型 IGG97LB(72 0阶 )计算了三江地区不同场源的重力场。在分析研究了不同场源重力场特征之后 ,结合地震层析成像资料 ,得出了初步结论 :(1)三江地区的康滇菱形块体内部的物质是由青藏高原下面物质向南东方向延伸来的 ,可见康滇菱形块体与青藏高原的关系密切 ;(2 )康滇菱形块体的低速度层厚度大于周边地区 ;(3)从三江地区重力场特征及历史上地震发生的情况看 ,地震容易发生在重力异常等值线拐弯处 ,特别是复杂的等值线拐弯处 ,更是地震的多发区。     

A combined theory for zonal harmonic and resonance perturbations of a near-circular orbit with applications to COSMOS 1603 (1984-106A)

Theory for the motion of a satellite in a near-circular orbit and perturbed by zonal and resonance terms in the Earth's gravity field is developed. Commensurability with respect to both primary and secondary terms is considered with the solution dependent on the depths of the resonances. The theory is applied to the motion of COSMOS 1603 (1984-106A) which approached 14 : 1 resonance in 1987. Values of lumped harmonics derived from least-squares analysis are in close agreement with previous studies of 1984-106A and global gravity field models. The theory is finally extended to incorporate the effects of air drag.     

天津附近奥陶系地热流体成因与补排分析

天津市区附近奥陶系地热流体TDS变化较大, 存在东、西差异, 且在西南部形成TDS与F- 浓度高异常区, TDS最大值为418 mg/L。通过δD-δ18O及流体动力场分析, 认为奥陶系流体均为大气降水, 来自北部燕山地区, 并向西向南排泄。高TDS异常区与蓟县系雾迷山组储层流体液面位势异常区重合, 且雾迷山组储层流体液面位势高于奥陶系流体液面位势23.21～26.96 m, 存在雾迷山组流体向奥陶系顶托补给的动力条件。李七庄断裂通过本异常区, 是雾迷山组热流体向奥陶系补给通道; 奥陶系地层中存在有1%的硫铁矿, 该类矿物在氧化分解作用下, 使SO₄2- 离子提高, 从而在西区形成 TDS与F- 浓度异常。