Rainfall flood hazard at nuclear power plants in India

Flood hazard evaluation is an important input for Nuclear Power Plants external events safety studies. In the present study, flood hazard at various nuclear sites in India due to rainfall has been evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment are daily annual maximum rainfall (24?h data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law and exponential distribution, and return period has been estimated. To study the stationarity of rainfall data, a moving window estimate of the parameters has been performed. The rainfall pattern is stationary in both coastal and inland regions over the period of observation. The coastal regions show intense rainfall and higher variability than inland regions. Based on the plant layout, catchment area and drainage capacity, the prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) site is unlikely to be flooded.     

新疆准东煤田中侏罗统煤系镓元素的分布特征及赋存机理探讨

随着大型煤系稀有金属矿产的发现,煤中伴生微量元素的研究受到广泛关注,但目前对我国西北地区的煤系地层中稀有元素的研究程度较低。选取新疆东北部的准东煤田为研究区,基于煤样的煤质分析和微量元素数据,研究了煤中镓的分布规律、赋存特征及富集成因。研究表明：(1)准东煤田的中侏罗统煤层中镓明显富集。12个矿区煤中镓平均含量在20.78~47.98 μg/g,大多高于或接近煤中镓的边界品位(30 μg/g)。(2)煤田中镓的分布规律性明显。平面上,盆地周围煤中Ga含量较中部矿区高,特别是东北部和西南部由于分别受克拉美丽山和博格达山物源区的影响,煤中Ga含量异常高,部分区域超过了60 μg/g,而中部矿区(ZD10740、ZD10464、ZD10407和ZD10841)的煤中Ga含量表现为从矿区边缘向中心逐渐富集;垂向上,大部分矿区煤中Ga含量从中侏罗统底部向上降低,而受到早燕山运动影响,靠近博格达山的矿区(ZD10740)表现相反。(3)煤中Ga主要以高岭石为载体,部分Ga也存在煤的有机质组分中。镓主要以细粒物质(胶体或有机络合物形式)搬运到沉积盆地,在潮湿覆水沉积条件下发生聚积。     

基于GIS的滑坡CF多元回归模型及其应用

目前基于GIS滑坡变形失稳危险性评价方法均有各自的局限性。本文在基于数据的数学统计模型的基础上提出CF多元回归模型。通过将滑坡确定性稳定系数与回归模型的融合,在一定程度以解决了滑坡评价过程中影响因子的选择和量化的问题,有利于建立准确的滑坡分析模型。最后,将模型应用于云南小江流域,进行了该区的滑坡空间分布及稳定性分析。     

Evaluation of environmental parameters in logistic regression models for landslide susceptibility mapping

Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine how well the landslide susceptibility parameters, obtained by data-dependent statistical models, matched with the parameters used in the literature. In order to achieve this goal, 20 different environmental parameters were mapped in a well-studied landslide-prone area, the Asarsuyu catchment in northwest Turkey. A total of 4400 seed cells were generated from 47 different landslides and merged with different attributes of 20 different environmental causative variables into a database. In order to run a series of logistic regression models, different random landslide-free sample sets were produced and combined with seed cells. Different susceptibility maps were created with an average success rate of nearly 80%. The coherence among the models showed spatial correlations greater than 90%. Models converged in the parameter selection peculiarly, in that the same nine of 20 were chosen by different logistic regression models. Among these nine parameters, lithology, geological structure (distance/density), landcover-landuse, and slope angle were common parameters selected by both the regression models and literature. Accuracy assessment of the logistic models was assessed by absolute methods. All models were field checked with the landslides resulting from the 12 November 1999, Kayna?li Earthquake (Ms = 7.2).     

地理国情监测成果在农业、旅游领域中的应用

开展地理国情监测工作的目的是为了获取自然与人类社会经济活动引起的地表变化信息,具体包括地表自然要素、人文地理要素和社会经济信息的空间分布特征及其相互关系,是基本国情的重要组成部分,为政府管理决策、企业生产运营、人民群众生活提供数据基础和决策依据。本文基于地理国情监测数据,结合多种测绘地理信息数据和技术手段,探讨如何利用地理国情监测成果促进农业与旅游业的发展,以期深入挖掘和提升监测成果价值,全面拓展监测成果应用服务的新思路、新方向。     

一种城市公交线网分布的可视化分析方法

可视化分析技术在分析交通数据、发现交通问题及辅助决策扮演着越来越重要的角色,成为一项重要的智能交通技术。为了更加直观地展示城市公交线网空间分布的疏密情况,本文基于北京市公交线路矢量数据,采用直接可视化和聚集可视化两种方法对公交线网的空间分布进行了分析。通过对原数据处理计算得到了基于北京市主干道的公交线路分布数据并进行了直接可视化;同时利用HTML5的Canvas绘制热力图的方法对原数据进行了聚集可视化,根据可视化结果对北京市公交线路空间分布情况进行了分析。该方法对城市公交线网规划和优化有实用价值和意义。     

地理国情监测在领导干部自然资源资产离任审计工作中的应用探讨

为积极配合审计部门开展领导干部自然资源资产离任审计工作,充分利用地理国情普查及监测成果,探索领导干部自然资源资产离任审计的内容、方法和评价指标体系,探讨了基于地理国情普查和监测数据成果、基础测绘及相关技术获取的各类自然资源资产基础数据。按专业部门现行标准与有关行业部门进行必要的专题数据整合和处理,建设市级自然资源本底数据库,摸清自然资源的存量与变量,为建立自然资源资产审计长效机制奠定扎实的基础。     

Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

Distribution Characteristics of Sulfur and the Main Harmful Trace Elements in China’s Coal

To promote the rational development and use of clean coal resources in China, data on the regional and age distribution of sulfur, arsenic and other harmful elements in Chinese coal was broadly collected, tested for content, and analyzed. Coal in northwestern China is characterized by low to extremely low levels of sulfur; the coal of the Taiyuan Formation in northern China mainly has high-sulfur content; that of the Shanxi Formation is mainly characterized by low sulfur coal; and the Late Permian coal in southern China has overall higher sulfur content; other regions have low sulfur coal. The average content of harmful trace elements in the bulk of China＇s coal is similar to the corresponding content in the coal of the North America and the rest of the world, whereas the content of various elements （Hg, Sb and Se） is different in magnitude to the corresponding percentage in the crust. The average content of the elements Cr, Se, Co, Be, U, Br in Late Permian coal in S China ranks first in the country whereas the average content of Hg and CI in the coals of Late Carboniferous to Early Permian age in N China are the highest. The average content of Mn in Early and Middle Jurassic coal is higher in NW China. The high content of harmful elements in some coal should cause particular concern both in the development and utilization of coal.     

京津唐地区细菌性痢疾社会经济影响时空分析

细菌性痢疾是常见疾病,也是备受关注的公共健康问题。近年来,京津唐地区的细菌性痢疾发病率相对较高。本文首先分析了2012年京津唐地区细菌性痢疾的季节性和人群特征;其次,使用热点分析模型,探索了京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病率的时空聚集性;最后,运用地理探测器模型研究了细菌性痢疾的发生和社会经济因素之间的量化关系。结果表明：① 细菌性痢疾发病的峰值时间是8月;发病率最高的年龄段是0-9岁,其次是80岁以上;农民群体发病率最高,其次是散居儿童。② 京津唐地区细菌性痢疾在空间和时间上都存在聚集性。空间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区主要分布于北京市的房山区及门头沟区和天津市的滨海新区,低聚集区主要分布于唐山市的滦县,时间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区在12个月均有发生,低聚集区主要发生在1-4月以及6月。③ 影响细菌性痢疾发病率空间分布的主要社会经济因素为农村人口占总人口的比例、人口密度和各区县的人均GDP,它们的解释力分别为61%,37%和20%,并且发现它们的交互作用都大于独自影响的作用。本研究通过对京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病情况的人群特征、时空特征以及影响因素的分析,为本地区细菌性痢疾的预防和控制提供理论依据。