基于Lowry模型的北京市城市空间结构模拟

以Lowry模型为理论支撑,以北京市发展现状为研究对象,从模型构建、参数设置和情景模拟三个方面探索Lowry 模型框架在城市空间结构研究中的应用。① 基于杜能区位论,构建以区域地租总额最大化为目标函数,以北京市经济发展现状、现有土地资源供给为约束条件的线性规划模型。② 以北京市2010 年投入产出表、2011 年北京市统计年鉴、2010 年北京市企业调查数据等数据来源为支撑,完成模型相关参数的设置。③ 以北京市市域为研究对象,以乡镇街道办为基本研究单元,基于对北京市基本行业分布格局分析,构建模型的情景约束条件。④ 模拟分析了在北京市基本行业空间格局框架确定情况下的城市产业、居住空间分布特征,总结了模型的结构启示及模型的模拟启示。本文不仅丰富了模型框架的内涵,而且在实际应用中检验了模型的技术流程和分析能力,为基于Lowry模型的城市空间结构分析框架形成奠定基础,拓展了国内城市空间结构研究的研究视角。     

1957～2002年南海—北印度洋海浪场波候特征分析

利用ERA-40海表10 m风场驱动第三代海浪数值模式WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ,得到南海—北印度洋1957年9月至2002年8月的海浪场,并分析其波候(风候)特征.研究发现如下主要特征:(1)该海域的波高波向、风速风向受季风影响显著;(2)北印度洋大部分海域的海表风速呈显著性逐年线性递增趋势,大约0.01～0.02 m/(s·a),南海线性递增的区域则较少,有效波高呈显著性逐年线性递增的区域主要集中在低纬度中东印度洋(约0.003～0.006 m/a)、索马里附近海域(大约0.002～0.005 m/a)、南海大部分海域(约0.002～0.004 m/a),线性递减的区域主要集中在孟加拉湾海域(约-0.002 m/a);(3)Nino3指数与南海—北印度洋的海表风场、浪场存在密切的关系;(4)南海—北印度洋的海表风速与有效波高存在5.2a左右的共同周期,南海的海表风速、有效波高还存在2.0a左右的共同周期,北印度洋的海表风速、有效波高还存在26.0a的长周期震荡.     

用混沌理论提高潮汐预报的准确度

为提高潮位预报的准确性,在具有较长潮汐观测数据的站点,基于混沌理论,对观测值与潮汐模型预测值之差所构成的余水位序列(即误差序列),采用局域线性模型的分析方法,给出可能误差预测,修正模型的预报结果,提高潮汐预报的准确性。所给例子,对预测跨度T=2 h,经局域法修正后,崇武站2007年12月份1个月预测水位统计的RMSE值减少74.7%,厦门站减少60.5%;对T=24 h,崇武、厦门两站RMSE值减小都在50%左右。     

A study of the mixed layer of the South China Sea based on the multiple linear regression

Multiple linear regression(MLR) method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux(NHF),the net freshwater flux(NFF) and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth(MLD) of the South China Sea(SCS) based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) dataset.The spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD,the buoyancy flux(combining the NHF and the NFF) and the wind stress of the SCS were presented.Then using an oceanic vertical mixing model,the MLD after a certain time under the same initial conditions but various pairs of boundary conditions(the three factors) was simulated.Applying the MLR method to the results,regression equations which modeling the relationship between the simulated MLD and the three factors were calculated.The equations indicate that when the NHF was negative,it was the primary driver of the mixed layer deepening;and when the NHF was positive,the wind stress played a more important role than that of the NHF while the NFF had the least effect.When the NHF was positive,the relative quantitative effects of the wind stress,the NHF,and the NFF were about 10,6 and 2.The above conclusions were applied to explaining the spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD in the SCS and thus proved to be valid.     

An experimental study of the spatial structures of the instabilities of longshore currents on plane beaches

A laboratory experiment on alongshore currents is conducted for two plane beaches with slopes 1:40 and 1:100 to investigate the instability of alongshore currents.The dye release experiment is also performed synchronously in surf zone.Complicated and strongly unstable motions of alongshore currents are observed in the experiment.To examine the spatial and temporal variations of the shear instabilities of longshore clearly,dye batches are released in surf zone.The deformation of the dye patch is observed efficiently and effectively with charge coupled device(CCD) system.Some essential characteristics of the shear instability are validated from the results of image analyses of the temporal variation of the dye patch.The influences of alongshore currents,Stokes drift,large-scale vorticity and the shear instabilities on the transport of dye are analyzed using the collected images.The spatial structure of the instabilities of longshore currents is studied by analyzing collected images of the dye patch.And the phase velocity of the meandering movements is obtained through measuring the movement distances of the oscillations of dye patch in alongshore direction with time.The results suggest that the propagation speed of the shear instability is approximately 50%-75% of maximum of mean alongshore currents for irregular and regular waves.The calculated propagation speed using a linear instability analysis theory is compared with the experimental results.The comparison shows agreements between them.     

利用三元组稀疏矩阵技术改进HASM算法——以全球平均气温模拟为例

 采用预处理共轭梯度法(PCG)进行求解的高精度曲面建模(HASM)算法的计算过程需要大量矩阵计算,采用稀疏矩阵方式可以压缩存储空间。三元组稀疏矩阵存储是较为传统的稀疏矩阵存储结构,这种存储结构的稀疏矩阵技术已被广泛使用。根据HASM-PCG的特点,本文通过改进三元组稀疏矩阵的部分计算方式,调整HASM-PCG算法中的部分计算顺序,从而舍弃部分不需要存储的非零元素,提高了计算效率。根据全球1998-2008年的近3000个气象观测台站的气温观测数据,以及全球DEM数据,对20世纪末至21世纪初的11年来5、6、7、8月份的全球平均气温进行数字模拟。数值结果表明,采用改进的三元组稀疏矩阵技术有效地提高了HASM方法的模拟效率。     

交通路况基态修正模型及其效率分析

 交通路况在时间上和空间上具有连续变化的特征,在时空维度上对交通路况进行高分辨率采样得到的数据,对研究交通路况的时空动态十分有利。但长时间大范围的高分辨率交通路况信息数据量巨大,给数据的组织和管理带来了困难。目前,尚没有一种成熟的时空数据模型对高时空分辨率交通路况数据进行高效(顾及数据存储与访问效率)的组织管理。本文提出一种基于线性参照系统的交通路况基态修正模型。此模型应用基态修正模型的基本思想,在时间维度上对交通路况数据进行无损压缩,又引入动态分段技术和线性参照系统,以路划作为交通路况载体,在空间维度上对交通路况数据进行压缩存储。利用成都市区真实交通路况数据,本文验证了此模型的有效性,比较了6种不同参数下交通路况基态修正模型的存储和访问效率,给出了最佳模型建议。     

A macro‐element model for non‐linear soil–shallow foundation–structure interaction under seismic loads: theoretical development and experimental validation on large scale tests

In this paper, different formulations of a macro‐element model for non‐linear dynamic soil‐structure interaction analyses of structures lying on shallow foundations are first reviewed, and secondly, a novel formulation is introduced, which combines some of the characteristics of previous approaches with several additional features. This macro‐element allows one to model soil‐footing geometric (uplift) and material (soil plasticity) non‐linearities that are coupled through a stiffness degradation model. Footing uplift is introduced by a simple non‐linear elastic model based on the concept of effective foundation width, whereas soil plasticity is treated by means of a bounding surface approach in which a vertical load mapping rule is implemented. This mapping is particularly suited for the seismic loading case for which the proposed model has been conceived. The new macro‐element is subsequently validated using cyclic and dynamic large‐scale laboratory tests of shallow foundations on dense sand, namely: the TRISEE cyclic tests, the Public Works Research Institute and CAMUS IV shaking table tests. Based on this comprehensive validation process against a set of independent experimental results, a unique set of macro‐element parameters for shallow foundations on dense sand is proposed, which can be used to perform predictive analyses by means of the present model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Boundary crossing and non‐linear theory in earth‐system sciences – a proof of concept based on tsunami and post‐eruption scenarios on Java Island,Indonesia

Although volcanic eruptions are well‐known to be the trigger of some weather and climatic changes, land‐cover changes by pyroclastic‐flows and lahars do not get this recognition, neither do major hazards such as tsunami. These two earth processes are even lesser considered as being able to modify other earth processes they are not directly connected to, such as landslides or river discharge in non‐connected basins more than a hundred kilometres away. In this contribution the authors argue that these ideas are mainly driven by the process of being ‘educated’ in a single academic discipline and once put to the test interactions and retroactions between earth processes and atmospheric processes are far more reaching than commonly thought. For this study, the site of Java Island (Indonesia) was chosen to conduct (1) an analysis of a major tsunami impact – in the same area as the 2006 Java tsunami and (2) an analysis of the post‐eruption impacts of Merapi Volcano after a major eruption – excluding any ejecta in the atmosphere for the sake of the demonstration. The atmospheric feedback simulations were conducted using the regional climate model (RegCM‐4) with calibration from weather stations in Java Island. As a result, both simulations have proven that large scale deposits of pyroclasts (not introducing the ejectas sent in the atmosphere) and tsunamis can have outstanding impacts on the atmospheric situation and the bio‐geomorphologic evolution of the landscape in the following weeks to months. Interestingly enough these impacts are not limited to the area impacted by the earth process and the effect are not linear in time as they work following thresholds. These rainfalls ‘tele‐impacts’ are important enough to, in turn, modify earth‐surface processes in areas remote from the original phenomenon. This system acts in the same manner as a famous butterfly in Africa that could trigger a hurricane on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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