天山南麓雷暴日短期预报研究

利用阿克苏及邻近地区12个气象站1980—2013年雷暴资料,以及同期高空资料,统计了各站年均雷暴日数,对发生区域雷暴天气的环流形势进行分类,归纳出各型的入型指标。通过逐步回归法,建立阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴概率回归预报模型,并对2013年进行试预报。结果表明:(1)阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴的影响系统主要分为4类:巴湖低槽型、急流型、西北气流型和温度槽型。(2)对2002—2012年5—9月(共1683 d)历史资料进行判别,满足入型条件的样本数为876 d,消空率为48%;对2013年5—9月(共153 d)历史资料进行判别,入型样本数为80 d,消空率为48%。(3)对2002—2012年5—9月所有入型样本进行回代检验,平均准确率为72.0%(平均TS评分为30.1%);对2013年5—9月所有入型样本进行试预报,平均准确率为63.2%(平均TS评分为28.2%)。     

基于作物模型的河南省旱稻干旱风险评估

采用作物模型与数理统计相结合的方法,利用长期历史气象资料,以作物模型和地理信息系统技术为工具,系统分析了河南地区旱稻生育期水分盈亏情况。以模型模拟的雨养条件下实际蒸散量相对于潜在条件下的蒸散量(即需水量)的亏缺率,即水分亏缺指数,以雨养条件下产量相对于潜在产量的损失率(即灾损指数)作为产量灾损强度评价指标,从受旱程度和产量损失两个角度构建干旱风险评估模型,进行干旱风险评估。结果表明:河南省旱稻生育期集中在6—9月,水分亏缺最多的阶段为出苗—穗分化阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.50~0.60,其次是开花—成熟阶段和穗分化—开花阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.11~0.43;全生育期水分亏缺指数在0.36~0.50。出苗—穗分化阶段干旱发生的风险最大,其次是开花—成熟阶段,穗分化—开花阶段的最小。河南旱稻生育期干旱风险呈现为由东南向西北逐渐升高的分布,其中三门峡、济源西部一带风险最高,洛阳南部和南阳西北部一带最低,黄河以北大部地区和豫东、豫南地区风险居中。     

顾及位置关系的网络POI地址信息标准化处理方法

针对互联网POI(兴趣点)地址信息中广泛存在的地址要素不完整、文字表达不一致等不规范现象,提出一种顾及位置关系的网络POI地址信息标准化处理方法,首先对POI信息进行切分提取并逐层匹配地址树模型;然后基于4种位置关系从标准POI库中选出相应集合,作为丰富和修正非标准POI地址要素的候选;最后通过最小粒度地址要素的回溯,实现POI地址信息的快速标准化处理。试验表明该方法可以获得较高的准确率,尤其适用于在互联网数据环境中的POI地址信息标准化。     

Untold muddy tales: Paleoenvironmental dynamics of a “barren” mudrock succession from a shallow Permian epeiric sea

During the late Paleozoic, the intracratonic Paraná Basin, Brazil, in central Gondwanaland, was covered by a huge (>1.600.000 km²), shallow and isolated epeiric sea. Within the Permian succession, oxygen-deficient facies are commonly recorded in the Mesosaurus-bearing Irati Formation (Cisuralian, Artinskian/Kungurian) and the overlaying Serra Alta Formation (Guadalupian, Wordian/Capitanian). Barren, dark-grey mudstones are the main facies preserved in this last unit, which has usually discouraged extensive and detailed stratigraphical and paleontological investigations. However, exhaustive sedimentological, taphonomic and paleontological surveys in those deposits reveal a dynamic and complex depositonal history. Based on sedimentary fabric, autochthonous to parautochthonous occurrences of shelly benthic invertebrates (bivalves) and the presence/absence of concretion-bearing and phosphate-rich layers, we report variations in the oxygen levels of bottom and pore waters, in bathymetry, sedimentation rates, and changes in benthic colonization. Our data indicate that the deposition of this “apparently barren” mudstone-dominated succession was driven by a complex interplay of variations in sedimentation rate and oxygen pulses tied to tectonic and climate changes. Three distinct populations or invertebrate paleocommunities were recorded, which were adapted to (a) normal background low-oxygen (dysoxic) conditions (i.e., minute infaunal suspension-feeding bivalves associated with the trace fossil Planolites), (b) chemically toxic (anoxic/extreme dysoxic) substrates, including gigantic burrowing bivalves (probable chemosymbiotic taxa), and (c) oxic/dysoxic substrates following short-term bottom disruptions.     

变化环境下渭河流域水文干旱演变特征剖析

环境变化影响区域水资源的可持续开发利用,导致水文过程出现非平稳特征,需发展非平稳水文干旱评估方法。选取渭河流域为研究区,依据流域内2个水文站、62个雨量站和24个气象站1961-2013年数据,基于可变下渗容量模型定量分离气候变化和人类活动对径流衰减的贡献;采用标准化径流指数（Standardized Runoff Index, SRI）剖析水文干旱时空演变特征;提出多种SRI参数化方案,对比评定各方案表征非平稳干旱的合理性以及环境变化对干旱演变的影响作用。结果表明:自1991年以来渭河流域年径流量呈显著衰减趋势,人类活动是径流演变的主要因素,对咸阳和华县站径流量变化的贡献率分别为-66.7%和-71.0%;时变参数方案计算的干旱指数能合理重建历史水文干旱序列;人类活动是渭河流域1991年以来短历时水文干旱发生的主导因素,气候变化主要影响长历时旱涝的演变趋势。     

耦合长期预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型

为提高跨流域引水工程受水水库引水有效性,研究了耦合长期径流预报信息的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型。首先选取汛期径流预报信息,采用径流预报概率修正先验概率来描述径流的不确定性,建立了贝叶斯随机动态规划模型(BSDP-LTF)。然后将模型应用于碧流河水库,并与仅考虑径流相关的随机动态规划模型(SDP-I)、仅考虑长期预报信息的随机动态规划模型(SDP-LTF)进行比较。比较结果得出在供水保证率基本一致且不增加调度风险的情况下,BSDP-LTF模型相比SDP-I、SDP-LTF模型,可分别减少引水8.2%、4.1%。表明贝叶斯随机动态规划模型BSDP-LTF有效改进了径流描述,提高了跨流域引水的有效性。     

A Method for Automatically Selecting Aids to Navigation Based on their Spatial Influence Domains

To address the limitations of manually selecting aids to navigation (AtNs) on charts, a method for automatically selecting AtNs based on their spatial influence domains (SIDs) is proposed. First, the associations between the spatial attributes of an AtN are analyzed. Second, an SID of the AtN is defined, and a model of the SID is constructed based on the associations between the spatial attributes. Third, the importance of the location of the AtN is weighted based on the SID model. Fourth, an algorithm to automatically select AtNs based on the maximum coverage of the SIDS of preselected AtNs is developed. Finally, several AtNs are selected automatically using the algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that (1) the proposed method can automatically select AtNs and the results comply with the requirements; (2) the automatic selection can eliminate the human-induced errors or the inconsistent results of manual selections from different operators; and (3) the efficiency of the proposed method is higher than that of current manual methods.     

基于五种油源的中重度风化溢油的常规鉴定指标的应用效果评估

本文利用采集于我国三大油田的五种原油样品开展了长达210天的溢油风化模拟实验,并依据相对偏差和重复性限数学分析法,进行溢油风化过程分析和诊断比值应用效果评估。研究结果表明:经过210天的风化,溢油鉴定诊断比值发生明显改变;其中来源于萜烷、甾烷和多环芳烃的诊断比值变化率要远低于正构烷烃,可用于中长期风化溢油鉴定。此外,研究发现,在这些有效诊断比值中有4个变化率较小,相对偏差低于5%,保持了较好的稳定性,更适合于重度风化溢油鉴定。     

祁连山新元古代——早古生代火山作用与铁-铜多金属成矿

祁连山造山带新元古代—早古生代是板块构造演化与成矿的最重要时段,铁、铜多金属矿产资源丰富,成矿作用与新元古代—早古生代火山作用密切相关。根据矿床产出构造位置,将祁连山铁、铜多金属矿床分为4类:大陆裂谷型铁(铜)矿床、岛弧-岛弧裂谷型铜多金属矿床、陆缘裂谷型铜多金属矿床、扩张脊型铜矿床。镜铁山铁(铜)型矿床是新元古代大陆裂谷火山作用过程中热水沉积作用的产物;东沟铜矿为晚寒武世大洋扩张脊火山作用的产物;白银矿田铜多属矿床是奥陶纪与岛弧-岛弧裂谷火山作用的产物;石居里铜矿是晚奥陶纪弧后扩张脊有关火山作用的产物;红沟铜矿则是晚奥陶世陆缘裂谷火山作用的产物。