一个观察北极涛动与北大西洋涛动关系的典型个例

北极涛动与大西洋涛动是否属同一气候变率模态一直是北极涛动动力学研究方面的一个颇具争议的话题。文中通过对"0801南方雪灾"期间及其前后北极涛动与北大西洋涛动异常及产生原因进行个例分析,对两者之间的关系进行了讨论。首先使用交叉子波变换与子波相关方法分析了两者的相位关系。发现在30—60天时间尺度上北极涛动与北大西洋涛动相位相差90°或-90°。而在10 20天这一尺度上北极涛动与北大西洋涛动具有大致相同的相位。对北极涛动及北大西洋涛动形成的动力过程及其在拉尼娜背景下各自特点的分析表明,这种不同尺度上位相关系的差异来自于波-流相互作用动力学的局域性。众所周知,北极涛动的3个活动中心的形成与分别位于北大西洋、北太平洋和北极平流层的3个波流相互作用中心有关。而北大西洋涛动则主要与位于北大西洋的波-流相互作用中心有关。拉尼娜事件的出现通过影响太平洋急流及行星尺度的准定常波从而进一步强化了30-60天时间尺度上北极涛动与北大西洋涛动的这种差异。这主要是因为太平洋急流或准定常行星波在对流层中直接影响了位于该区域的北极涛动的活动中心。同时准定常行星波冬季向上传播至平流层并与平流层极涡相互作用从而也影响了北极涛动在北极的活动中心。而在10—20天时间尺度上的北极涛动与北大西洋涛动同步关系则说明它们都是北极涛动的另一活动中心即大西洋上同一波-流相互作用现象——天气波破碎的反映。基于上述分析.文中倾向于认同将北极涛动和北大西洋涛动区别考虑的观点。     

冬小麦晚霜冻害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析

冬小麦晚霜冻害主要发生在中国的黄淮区域,河南占黄淮区域面积较大,是中国小麦的主要产地,又是晚霜冻害的重发区,因此文章以河南为例,从构成晚霜冻害的最低温度和小麦发育期两个因素出发,提出了晚霜冻害指数构建方法,使晚霜冻害指标定量化,并从多年数据库中计算出逐年晚霜冻害发生强度和发生天数.由于小麦发育期观测资料序列较短,影响了大尺度小麦晚霜冻害变化规律的分析,因而提出了冬小麦发育期资料推算方法;对计算出的近50年晚霜冻害资料进行EOF分析和Morlet小波分析,以发现晚霜冻害的时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律.结果表明:冬小麦晚霜冻害发生频率较高,高发区频率超过40%,且在20世纪70-90年代有增多的趋势;发生强度和天数变化趋势基本相似,具有发生强度较重区对应着发生天数较多区的趋势,且前者对小麦产量的影响大于后者;晚霜冻害发生强度的重发区分布在豫东南和豫西南,轻发区主要分布在淮河以南及豫西部分地区,其中第1模态分布型存在16年、第2模态分布型存在准2年的多时间尺度变化规律;发生天数的多发区主要分布在豫北北部和豫西南边界,少发区在豫东北及豫西南中部,其中第1模态分布型存在着准4年、第2模态分布型存在准3年和准6-7年的周期.     

广东2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害及气象应急响应

2008年初我国南方遭受了百年一遇低温雨雪冰冻灾害,广东的受灾程度属80年一遇,造成了重大经济损失和严重社会影响.分析发现:灾害过程在近年来最严重的一次"拉尼娜"事件背景下发生的,与欧亚地区持续大气环流异常密切相关.在"北脊南槽"和西太平洋副高偏北偏强的形势下,冷暖气流在我国南方地区频繁交汇,使对流层中低层形成逆温层和局地经向环流产生异常,造成了此次持续低温雨雪冰冻过程.面对灾害引发的公共事件,广东省气象部门打破常规、准确预警,启动预案,通过媒体和"公共事件预警信息发布平台",及时传播权威的公共预警信息,为安定民心、稳定社会、减少灾害起到积极作用.灾后反思发现,山区冰灾的监测、灾害的评估、公共信息发布等的能力和规范均亟待加强.     

Influence of thawed soil depth on rainfall erosion of frozen bare meadow soil in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has a vast area of approximately 70×10⁴ km² of alpine meadow under the impacts of soil freezing and thawing, thereby inducing intensive water erosion. Quantifying the rainfall erosion process of partially thawed soil provides the basis for model simulation of soil erosion on cold-region hillslopes. In this study, we conducted a laboratory experiment on rainfall-induced erosion of partially thawed soil slope under four slope gradients (5, 10, 15, and 20°), three rainfall intensities (30, 60, and 90 mm h⁻¹), and three thawed soil depths (1, 2, and 10 cm). The results indicated that shallow thawed soil depth aggravated soil erosion of partially thawed soil slopes under low hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity of 30 mm h⁻¹ and slope gradient ≤ 15°), whereas it inhibited erosion under high hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity ≥ 60 mm h⁻¹ or slope gradient > 15°). Soil erosion was controlled by the thawed soil depth and runoff hydrodynamic conditions. When the sediment supply was sufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth had a higher erosion potential and a larger sediment concentration. On the contrary, when the sediment supply was insufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth resulted in lower sediment erosion and a smaller sediment concentration. The hydrodynamic runoff conditions determined whether the sediment supply was sufficient. We propose a model to predict sediment delivery under different slope gradients, rainfall intensities, and thawed soil depths. The model, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.95, accurately predicted the sediment delivery under different conditions, which was helpful for quantification of the complex feedback of sediment delivery to the factors influencing rainfall erosion of partially thawed soil. This study provides valuable insights into the rainfall erosion mechanism of partially thawed soil slopes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and provides a basis for further studies on soil erosion under different hydrodynamic conditions.     

我国北疆地区1961—2017年冻融指数的变化趋势

利用我国北疆地区49个主要气象站1961-2017年的逐日平均气温观测值计算了年冻融指数,并分析其变化趋势及分布特征。结果表明：北疆地区冻结指数出现明显的下降趋势,下降速率为51.6℃·d·（10a）^-1。冻结指数的范围在509~2 304.9℃·d之间,平均值为1 240℃·d。北疆地区融化指数出现明显上升趋势,上升速率为73.9℃·d·（10a）^-1。融化指数的范围在526.4~4 531.1℃·d之间,平均值为3 516℃·d。冻结指数表现出在经纬度和海拔较低的准噶尔盆地和伊宁地区较小,在海拔高的高山地区如阿尔泰山和天山山脉较大;融化指数与之相反。北疆地区冻结指数受经纬度及海拔的综合影响,融化指数则主要受海拔影响;年平均气温和冻融指数有非常强的线性关系。     

An experimental investigation of the effects of thawed soil depth on rill flow velocity

Water flow velocity is an important hydraulic variable in hydrological and soil erosion models, and is greatly affected by freezing and thawing of the surface soil layer in cold high-altitude regions. The accurate measurement of rill flow velocity when impacted by the thawing process is critical to simulate runoff and sediment transport processes. In this study, an electrolyte tracer modelling method was used to measure rill flow velocity along a meadow soil slope at different thaw depths under simulated rainfall. Rill flow velocity was measured using four thawed soil depths (0, 1, 2 and 10 cm), four slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15° and 20°) and four rainfall intensities (30, 60, 90 and 120 mm·h⁻¹). The results showed that the increase in thawed soil depth caused a decrease in rill flow velocity, whereby the rate of this decrease was also diminishing. Whilst the rill flow velocity was positively correlated with slope gradient and rainfall intensity, the response of rill flow velocity to these influencing factors varied with thawed soil depth. The mechanism by which thawed soil depth influenced rill flow velocity was attributed to the consumption of runoff energy, slope surface roughness, and the headcut effect. Rill flow velocity was modelled by thawed soil depth, slope gradient and rainfall intensity using an empirical function. This function predicted values that were in good agreement with the measured data. These results provide the foundation for a better understanding of the effect of thawed soil depth on slope hydrology, erosion and the parameterization scheme for hydrological and soil erosion models.     

Variability of Raindrop Size Distribution during a Regional Freezing Rain Event in the Jianghan Plain of Central China

The characteristics of the raindrop size distribution(DSD) during regional freezing rain(FR) events that occur throughout the phase change(from liquid to solid) are poorly understood due to limited observations. We investigate the evolution of microphysical parameters and the key formation mechanisms of regional FR using the DSDs from five disdrometer sites in January 2018 in the Jianghan Plain(JHP) of Central China. FR is identified via the size and velocity distribution measured from a disdrom...     

Evaluating the Ability of CRCM5 to Simulate Mixed Precipitation

Precipitation episodes in the form of freezing rain and ice pellets represent natural hazards affecting eastern Canada during the cold season. These types of precipitation mainly occur in the St. Lawrence River valley and the Atlantic provinces of Canada. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), using a 0.11° horizontal grid mesh, to hindcast mixed precipitation when driven by reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for a 35-year period. In general, the CRCM5 simulation slightly overestimates the occurrence of freezing rain, but the geographical distribution is well reproduced. The duration of freezing rain events and accompanying surface winds in the Montréal region are reproduced by CRCM5. A case study is performed for an especially catastrophic freezing-rain event in January 1998; the model succeeds in simulating the intensity and duration of the episode, as well as the propitious meteorological environment. Overall, the model is also able to reproduce the climatology and a specific event of freezing rain and ice pellets.     

一种浙江省冻雨落区的推算方法

2008年初浙江省出现全省性的大范围强冻雨天气,在输电线路上形成很厚的覆冰,致使浙江电网遭受巨大的损失。然而,浙江省却仅有三分之一的气象站观测到冻雨,持续时间也很短。本文利用全球再分析资料ERA-Interim结合浙江电网覆冰灾情资料,分析了2008和2013年的两次强冻雨过程。研究表明浙江省强冻雨发生时具备冷暖冷的层结结构,且中间暖层气温0℃,但相比湖南省,浙江省的暖层中心气温稍低,下层冷层厚度略厚,暖层中的液态水进人到下层冷层后易被冻结,落到低海拔地面为冰粒,或者低海拔地面层气温高于0℃,冻雨落到地面为降雨,所以冻雨期间浙江省绝大多数气象站(海拔在200 m以下)观测不到雨凇,观测到的多是冰粒或降雨;而在海拔较高的山区,冷层厚度变薄,液态水被冻结的概率大大降低,而且山区地面气温多低于0℃,有利于冻雨落在山区地面形成雨凇,因此浙江省冻雨多出现在浙中海拔400 m以上和浙南海拔600 m以上的山区。根据浙江省冻雨的特点,采用全球再分析资料进行冻雨落区推算,结果与浙江电网实际的覆冰灾情吻合得较好。本研究利用输电线路覆冰厚度确定冻雨强弱和分布,采用再分析资料推算冻雨落区,为地形起伏度较大的省份开展冻雨研究,进行冻雨监测和预报提供一条新的思路。     

冻土力学发展的新领域——深土冻土力学

Based on the practice of artificial freezing engineering in deep alluvium and simulation tests, it is found that there exists an obvious difference between frozen soil mechanics for shallow alluvium and for deep alluvium. The concept of frozen soil mechanics for deep alluvium, its research topics and methods are presented in this paper.