The El Salvador earthquakes of January and February 2001: context, characteristics and implications for seismic risk

The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes M_w 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation.     

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.     

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。     

ISO-834标准火灾作用后钢管混凝土的轴压刚度和抗弯刚度

火灾后钢管混凝土的轴压刚度和抗弯刚度是钢管混凝土结构变形性能和抗震分析的重要指标，也是火灾后钢管混凝土修复和加固的重要依据之一，本文利用数值方法计算了标准火灾作用后钢管混凝土轴压构件和纯弯构件荷载-变形关系曲线，分析了受火时间、材料强度、含钢率、截面尺寸等因素的影响规律，最后推导了标准火灾作用后钢管混凝土轴压刚度和抗弯刚度的简化计算公式，所得结果可供有关钢管混凝土结构工程设计时参考。     

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

Placing geographies of public health

Following the move to a 'post–medical' geography, a large amount of research has come to focus on public health issues. This paper explores these current geographies of public health and argues for the development of a more critical perspective. In particular, it draws on commentary that has emerged out of debates that have taken place within a body of literature usually identified as the critical 'new' public health. The paper goes on to argue that such scholarship offers crucial insights for the production of a critical geography of public health.     

Alpine medicinal plant trade and Himalayan mountain livelihood strategies

Commercial alpine medicinal plants are collected from the wild by local rural households throughout the Himalaya and sold in order to increase household incomes. Recent studies indicate that this annual trade amounts to thousands of tonnes of roots, rhizomes, tubers, leaves, etc., worth millions of US dollars. The main market is in India. Based on a national survey, including the most commonly traded species, and a village study this paper investigates the importance of the alpine medicinal plant trade at national and local levels in Nepal. The national survey included standardized open-ended interviews with 232 harvesters, 64 local traders, 66 central wholesalers, 47 regional wholesalers, and 16 production companies. The village survey is based on the daily records of household activities in 15 households in a one-year period. The annual Nepalese alpine and sub-alpine medicinal plant trade is conservatively estimated to vary from 480 to 2500 t with a total harvester value of US$0.8–3.3 million; the average harvester value is estimated at US$66.0 ± 99.0. The trade in 1997/98 amounted to 1600 t with a harvester value of US$2.3 million and an export value equivalent to 2.5% of total export from Nepal. Medicinal plant harvesting was found to constitute an integrated part of local livelihood strategies, contributing from 3 to 44% (average of 12%) of the annual household income. Importance at household level depended on land and animal holdings, and the availability of adult male labour. The validity and reliability of methods and analyses is evaluated, and issues of conservation and management of alpine medicinal plant species under the community forestry scheme are discussed.     

滇西北亚高山针叶林、硬叶栎类林的树种多样性

在滇西北香格里拉地区,以长苞冷杉(Abiesgeorgei)林、丽江云杉(Picealikiangensis)林作为亚高山针叶林的代表,以川滇高山栎(Quercusaquifolioides)林作为硬叶栎类林的代表,分别选择了6块样地,采用Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H)、Simpson多样性指数的倒数(D')、Pielou均匀度指数(JH、JD)分别测定其树种多样性,并进行了比较研究。结果表明,三个森林类型的Shannon Wiener指数、Simpson指数的倒数、物种丰富度的顺序均为:长苞冷杉林>川滇高山栎林>丽江云杉林;而前两类森林的Pielou均匀度指数差异不大,但都高于丽江云杉林的均匀度指数值。滇西北的川滇高山栎具有很强的萌生能力。人工种植的亚高山针叶林的树种多样性较原始林低,需要较长时间的恢复过程。亚高山针叶林的存在极大地丰富了云南省的树种多样性,使云南植被的垂直地带性得到了充分体现。     

Microbial production of CO2 in red soil in Stone Forest National Park

Lunan stone forest is a kind of typical karst in China, which is mainly developed under red soil. In the winter of 1999, three study sites were chosen in stone forest national park according to vegetation cover, geomorphologic location and soil types. CO2 concentration was measured with Gastec pump at different depths of soil (20, 40, 60 cm) and at the same time soil samples were gathered and soil properties such as soil moisture, pH, soil organic content were analyzed and the total number of viable microbes were counted in laboratory. In the study, dependent variable was chosen as the mean soil log (PCO2), and soil properties were chosen as the independent variables. Multiple stepwise regression analysis showed that the total amount of microbes and soil moisture are the best indicators of the CO2 production, with the equation LOG(PCO2) = - 0.039(TNM) - 0.056(Mo) + 1.215 accounting for 86% of the variation of the soil CO2 concentration, where TNM is the total number of microbes in the soil and Mo is the moisture of soil sample.