渤海湾表层沉积物重金属与污染评价

用原子吸收法测定了渤海湾表层沉积物中重金属的含量,同时用2种评价方法对该海域底质环境进行了评价。结果表明:沉积物中汞、锌含量平均值超过标准,其余项目未发现超标;其分布特征由于受沿岸不同污染源的污染影响,重金属污染物难以形成一定规律的分布状态。同时该海域底质环境质量总指数已达到污染程度和很强的生态危害,其中主要污染元素是Hg,已达重污染,并形成极强的生态危害。     

辽东湾北部海域营养状况与趋势评价

根据 1999-2006 年 6-8 月的调查数据,分析辽东湾北部海域的营养水平及变化趋势,以了解辽东湾北部海域营养水平的分布特点及污染状况.由 E 值和 CN/CP 值的总体评价结果来看,辽河口、双台子河口和大凌河口海域的富营养化程度较高,属于磷中等限制潜在性富营养区,而锦州湾海域污染相对较轻,属于中度营养区;在时空分布上,辽东湾北部海域 1999 年与 2006 年污染较为严重,中间年份污染相对较轻.针对辽东湾的具体环境用 CN/CP 值的评价模式更能揭示出营养盐限制对富营养化的影响.     

深水导管架下水扶正过程定量风险分析

运用QRA技术(定量风险评估)对导管架下水过程进行深入分析,提出风险概率评价模型和事故损失综合评估方法。首先辨识潜在的风险事件及相关风险因素,然后量化风险事件的模糊概率和损失程度,最后依据风险量化结果和ALARP(aslow as reasonably practically)原则对需要控制的风险事件给出控制措施。通过定量风险分析,达到及时查找并消除各方面事故隐患的目的。     

一种准确通用的台风路径预报模式

应用天气学理论,对台风云图的晴空区轴线制约台风移动的规律进行物理解释。根据台风云团与晴空区之间存在的干、湿梯度力和推动台风前进的惯性力的互相关系,建立台风移向预报方程和轨迹预报方程,分析论证了台风移向变化的物理过程,把影响台风移动的复杂因子转化为单一的预报因子。     

人工鱼礁工程的风险评估

对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。     

海洋贝类利用模式生命周期评价方法研究

首次将产品生命周期评价方法(LCA)应用于海洋贝类利用模式上。根据海洋贝类利用技术产业发展的特性和趋势,设计构建了由确定目标和范围、清单分析、影响评价3个步骤组成的评价体系,挑选了具有典型代表的2种扇贝利用模式进行评价,对其生产过程中的资源消耗、固体废弃物、富营养化、温室效应、酸化影响和潜在影响进行对比评价。评价结果显示其中资源消耗、温室效应、酸化影响、潜在健康影响的影响潜值模式2(产品模式为扇贝柱、复合氨基酸、鱼虾饵料和贝壳工艺品)比模式1(产品模式为扇贝柱、食用贝边、鱼虾鲜饵料和饲料添加剂)低;而固体废弃物、富营养化的影响潜值,模式2比模式1高。本评价方法可用于选择和优化海洋贝类的绿色化高值利用模式。研究表明,利用文章提出的海洋贝类利用评价方法可以有效掌握贝类利用的整个过程的环境行为,确定其中优化资源、节省能源和减少污染的关键步骤,为优化利用模式提供基础数据支持。     

天津港南部海区水体富营养化水平评价

根据2006年3月和7月的调查数据,对天津港南部海区海水的营养水平及动态变化进行了评价。考虑到水质状况和水体营养水平是水体中多项指标分析评价的综合结果.本文先通过单项指标评价法和营养指数法进行评价。然后又通过集对分析方法,选择化学需氧量(COD)、无机磷(DIP)、无机氮(DIN)、叶绿素a(Ch1—a)等作为评价指标,对该区海水富营养化水平进行了综合评价。评价结果表明集对分析方法更能反映海水的实际富营养化状况,计算结果显示天津港南部海域两期调查中除21,26.27和29站位在7月呈富营养化状态其余站位海水均在中营养(Ⅳ)及以下水平状况,未达到富营养化水平,水质状况较好。     

Abundance of the introduced seastar, Asterias amurensis, and spatial variability in soft sediment assemblages in SE Tasmania: Clear correlations but complex interpretation

The northern Pacific seastar, Asterias amurensis, was first collected in southeast Tasmania in 1986. Mistaken for the endemic asteroid Uniophora granifera, its true identity was not realised until 1992. It is now a conspicuous predator in soft sediment habitats in this region, and is considered a major threat to native assemblages and commercial species. We examined the structure of soft sediment assemblages at different spatial scales in southeast Tasmania, and correlated spatial variation in community composition with seastar abundances. We found that the structure of soft sediment assemblages is highly variable at a range of spatial scales from metres to tens of kilometres. Clear differences in the composition of assemblages and abundances of major taxa were detected between areas with and without seastars and between areas with low and high seastar densities. However, the nature of these patterns suggests that they are more likely due to differences in sediment characteristics than due to impacts of the seastar. Thus, spatial differences in soft sediment assemblages might have been erroneously attributed to seastars without detailed information on important physical factors such as sediment characteristics. A second survey, using larger sampling units (1 m²) but across a more limited spatial extent, targeted bivalves and heart urchins that were identified as important prey of the seastar in observations of feeding and in experimental studies. Large-scale patterns of abundance and size structure were consistent with seastar effects anticipated from small-scale experimental and feeding studies for some, but not all, species. While the field survey ultimately provided evidence about the presence or absence of seastar impacts at large-scales, the identification of key ecological variables in experimental and feeding studies proved crucial to both the design and interpretation of patterns observed in the large-scale surveys. Overall, this work highlighted the necessity to consider multiple lines of evidence rather than relying on a single ‘inferential’ test, in the absence of pre-impact data.     

Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.