Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies.     

DSC2型称重式降水传感器测雨性能的分析

为更有效地利用降雨观测数据,充分发挥新型探测设备建设效益,文章对DS(2型称重降水传感器的测雨性能进行分析评估,选取北京市13个国家级地面气象观测站在2013年4—10月,称重式降水传感器与人工、翻斗观测降雨量的业务观测资料,分析称重与人工和翻斗观测在降雨总量、日降雨量等方面的差异。结果表明:在选取样本中,12个台站的总降雨量误差符合现行业务要求,三种测量在日降雨量等级判断方面基本一致。称重比人工观测的日降雨量平均偏小0.13 mm,日降雨量相关系数为0.9968,对应地,称重比翻斗观测的结果平均偏小0.17 mm,日降雨量相关系数为0.9983。     

基于作物模型的河南省旱稻干旱风险评估

采用作物模型与数理统计相结合的方法,利用长期历史气象资料,以作物模型和地理信息系统技术为工具,系统分析了河南地区旱稻生育期水分盈亏情况。以模型模拟的雨养条件下实际蒸散量相对于潜在条件下的蒸散量(即需水量)的亏缺率,即水分亏缺指数,以雨养条件下产量相对于潜在产量的损失率(即灾损指数)作为产量灾损强度评价指标,从受旱程度和产量损失两个角度构建干旱风险评估模型,进行干旱风险评估。结果表明:河南省旱稻生育期集中在6—9月,水分亏缺最多的阶段为出苗—穗分化阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.50~0.60,其次是开花—成熟阶段和穗分化—开花阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.11~0.43;全生育期水分亏缺指数在0.36~0.50。出苗—穗分化阶段干旱发生的风险最大,其次是开花—成熟阶段,穗分化—开花阶段的最小。河南旱稻生育期干旱风险呈现为由东南向西北逐渐升高的分布,其中三门峡、济源西部一带风险最高,洛阳南部和南阳西北部一带最低,黄河以北大部地区和豫东、豫南地区风险居中。     

基于多模式集成技术的地面气温精细化预报

基于ECMWF、JMA、T639、WRF四个数值模式2012年6月1日—9月30日地面气温3—60 h预报资料和郑州加密自动站资料,利用多模式集合平均(EMN)、消除偏差集合平均(BREM)、加权消除偏差集合(WBREM)及多模式超级集合(SUP)4种方法,对2012年8月29日—9月27日郑州城区11个站点地面逐3 h气温进行多模式集成预报试验,采用绝对误差对预报结果进行检验评估,结果表明:在30天的预报期内,BREM、WBREM及SUP对于大多数站气温预报效果有明显改善,而EMN方案对11个站预报效果改善则不太明显;4种方案中,BREM和WBREM预报效果相对较好且稳定,各个站上3—60 h预报的绝对误差均在2℃附近或以下;SUP方案虽然对个别站预报误差较低,但是其预报效果并不稳定,一些站点的个别预报时效误差大于2℃。对于郑州观测站的气温预报而言,4种集成方案20时起报的气温误差明显小于08时起报的误差,并且20时起报的SUP集成方案绝对误差明显小于其他方案的绝对误差。总体而言,BREM、WBREM及SUP三种集成方案能够给郑州精细化预报业务提供较好的参考。     

应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估

分析目前国内雷电灾害风险评估发展现状,针对精细化雷击风险评估需求,以某大桥塔体电梯雷电灾害风险评估为例,在对雷击损坏途径进行系统分析的基础上,引入事故树(FTA)分析方法对电梯雷击损坏事件的致因关系进行了建模、分析与评价,得出电梯雷击损坏事件发生的年预计概率、导致雷击电梯损坏事件发生的关键以及最佳控制雷击电梯损坏事件发生的最有效因素。     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

中国地面气温统计降尺度预报方法研究

利用中国752个基本、基准地面气象观测站2000—2010年地面温度日值数据,采用具有自适应特征的Kalman滤波类型的递减平均统计降尺度技术,对中国地面温度进行精细化预报研究。分析该方案的降尺度效果,并与常用插值降尺度方法进行比较。结果表明:1)递减平均统计降尺度技术相比插值方法有较大的提高,显著减小东西部预报效果差异,1~3 d预报的均方根误差减小了1.4℃;2)该方案1~3 d预报的均方根误差为1.5℃,预报误差从东南地区(均方根误差为1.4℃)向西北地区(均方根误差为1.8℃)逐渐增大,并且预报效果夏季优于冬季。因此,递减平均统计降尺度技术对中国地面温度进行精细化预报是可行的。     

天绘一号03星三线阵/多光谱载荷影像质量评价

2015年10月26号发射的天绘一号03星是中国传输型立体测绘卫星天绘一号系列的第3颗卫星。三线阵和多光谱影像数据是天绘一号卫星的重要数据,用于立体测绘、彩色融合、遥感观测等多种用途。因此,为了推动天绘一号03卫星影像数据早日为相关领域提供服务,本文采用客观评价的方法,对天绘一号03星的三线阵和多光谱影像质量进行了全面的评价分析。评价结果显示(天绘一号)03星的清晰度、对比度、细节能量、边缘能量、功率谱、信息容量指标值远高于天绘一号01、02星。说明天绘一号03星三线阵/多光谱影像在地物细节和边缘纹理特征的描述上优于天绘一号01、02星,同时载荷接收的信息量远高于天绘一号01、02星。天绘一号03星较高的信噪比指标说明其载荷抑制噪声的能力优于天绘一号01、02星。边缘辐射畸变和增益调整畸变表明在辐射均匀程度上,天绘一号03星三线阵/多光谱影像介于天绘一号01和02星之间。因此,与同类天绘一号01,02星的三线阵与多光谱影像相比,天绘一号03星影像质量有着显著的提高。     

层次分析法的黄河上游滑坡易发性评价

针对黄河上游龙羊峡至积石峡段滑坡灾害分布易发性评价与区划成图问题,该文以ArcGIS为平台,联系评价区的实际特点,选取地貌类型、地层岩性、降雨、断层、坡度为评价因子,运用层次分析法(AHP)确定各评价因子的权重,建立研究区滑坡易发性评价模型,结合GIS的空间分析功能实现研究区内滑坡灾害的易发性区划。结果表明,滑坡灾害主要集中在龙羊峡库区右岸和群科-尖扎盆地。区划结果与野外实际调查基本吻合,为今后GIS应用于地质灾害区划提供了思路,同时可为区内地质单位进行灾害监测提供基础数据和依据。     

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.