水库流域入库洪水预报误差分析

由于受水库枢纽工程的影响，使得反推计算的入库流量本身就存在较大的误差，从而增加了入库洪水预报模型研制的难度，影响了这时预报精度的考核。通过对全国诸多水电厂水库流域实时洪水预报的实践，对其入库洪水预报中存在的误差原因及解决方法进行了科学的分析和阐述，以指导实时预报。     

Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada

The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.     

微量金化学光谱法标准系列配制及活性炭处理的改进

对微量金化学光谱法中活性炭自理及标准系列配制的方法进行了探索,改进了微量金化学光谱法活性炭处理及标准系列配制。将该法配制的标准系列应用于微量金化光谱测定,提高了分析结果的准确度。用标准试样分析及原子吸收（ＡＡＳ）法验证,结果与标准值及ＡＡＳ法相符。     

构建式流域实时水文预报系统关键技术研究

目前的水文预报模型很多,但都缺乏统一的模式。通过对水文预报模型的高度抽象,定义了水文预报模型的标准化接口,统一了各类水文预报模型的输入、输出、参数、状态,以及运行过程;在此基础上,实现了水文预报方案的标准化"构建"模式,即通过标准化水文预报模型的相互组合实现流域水文预报方案的标准化创建。基于以上关键技术,成功开发了构建式流域实时水文预报系统,并取得了良好的应用效果。     

全过程联合校正方法在饶河流域洪水预报中的应用研究

为提高饶河流域洪水预报精度,将全过程联合校正(EPJC)方法与三水源新安江(XAJ)模型结合,按一定比例划分洪水预报总误差为各过程误差,基于系统响应理论反演得到面雨量计算误差和模型参数误差,重新输入流域水文模型正演得出校正后的洪水过程.选取洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时间绝对误差、径流深相对误差和确定性系数作为模型评价指标,...     

用时间序列模拟和预报天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川年径流总量

本文把1958—1984年天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川的融水径流总量的时间序列X(t),分解为趋势项L(t)、周期项P(t)、平稳项S(t)、随机项ε(t),使该时间序列表示为X(t)=L(t)+P(t)+S(t)+ε(t)。采用非线性回归提取L(t),用谱分析和Fourier级数提取P(t),余差用自回归方程建模,用上述项的叠加作出预报,按相关指数公式计算R=0.90,效果良好。     

考虑时变影响的拱坝坝肩空间变形场预测

坝肩变形是拱坝坝肩稳定状态的综合反映,在运行期呈小变形变化,监测点测值在空间上具有连续性,同时影响拱坝坝肩变形的各种因素具有时变性。通过融合统计回归和多层递阶方法的特点,建立了反映变形场空间和时变特性的空间时变分析模型。实例分析表明,该模型实用有效,预测精度高。考虑时变影响可以提高拱坝坝肩空间变形场的预测能力,对监控拱坝坝肩的实际工作状况有重要意义。     

用1：5万磁异常特征圈定贵州水城-艾家坪地区成矿靶区

对1：5万高精度磁异常原始资料数据处理,进行化极、延拓计算7个不同上延高度异常,分析对比所有资料,结合地物化资料,对磁异常平面进行特征分区。又根据已知的白马洞（区内）-杉树林（区外）铅锌矿床成矿带及区内异处的铅锌、铜、锰等矿床（点）的成矿规律和分布特点,圈定了8个异常成矿靶区,19个大型的浅层局部负磁异常,均为有一定找矿意义的磁异常,并推测它们可能为岩体与矿致磁异常（铅锌、铜、锰、铁）等综合引起,在岩体（浅表隐伏的花岗岩珠或岩枝）与围岩接触带、层间破碎带上,应是赋矿的有利部位。     

Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.