Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall,river discharge and water quality

This review and commentary sets out the need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in observational data. We discuss the necessary components of a benchmark of dominant data uncertainties and the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for such guidance. We initiate the creation of a catalogue of accessible information on characteristics of data uncertainty for the key hydrological variables of rainfall, river discharge and water quality (suspended solids, phosphorus and nitrogen). This includes demonstration of how uncertainties can be quantified, summarizing current knowledge and the standard quantitative results available. In particular, synthesis of results from multiple studies allows conclusions to be drawn on factors which control the magnitude of data uncertainty and hence improves provision of prior guidance on those uncertainties. Rainfall uncertainties were found to be driven by spatial scale, whereas river discharge uncertainty was dominated by flow condition and gauging method. Water quality variables presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitudes exceeded 40%. We consider how data uncertainties impact on the interpretation of catchment dynamics, model regionalization and model evaluation. In closing the review, we make recommendations for future research priorities in quantifying data uncertainty and highlight the need for an improved ‘culture of engagement’ with observational uncertainties. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多网重力数据联合平差和系统误差改正

华北地区现行的地震重力监测网由于独立联测, 自成体系, 绝对控制点较少, 获得的重力场动态变化图像在绝对控制较弱的地区会产生畸变, 也不能有效的消除仪器标定系统所引起的测量误差。 本文以华北大网作为控制网, 结合绝对重力点进行联合平差计算, 使各省区地震重力监测网平差精度提高了(0~4)×10^-8 m/s², 平差起算基准相统一, 绝对控制较弱的地区畸变减小。 采用相关系数检验法, 对华北地区各省区地震重力监测网2010年二期重力平差计算结果进行检验, 部分重力点位系统误差高达60×10^-8 m/s², 经过系统误差改正后, 重力场动态变化趋于一致。 经过各项改正后, 华北地区2010年重力场动态差分图像对地震前兆具有更好的反映。     

山西数字地震台网仿真前后震级偏差对比分析

选取山西数字地震台网2010年不同震级,不同地点的地震事件,按照中国地震局的编目要求对波形进行WA仿真处理,对比仿真前后的震级大小,找出其中存在的偏差,为地震资料的衔接提供参考.     

利用P波初动测定地震计水平分向的定向偏差

基于P波质点振动方式和初动方向,设计一种测定地震计水平分向定向偏差的方法。通过旋转两水平分向波形获取P波优势能量方向,将旋转角度与地震方位角进行比较,得到地震计水平分向偏离正北方向的位置。再以地震计垂直向初动和已知震中确定台站初始速度的方向（即向源或离源方向）,依此初始速度方向在地震计坐标系中的位置,与水平分向实际记录初动符号所代表的方向进行确认,即可认定地震计水平分向的极性,进而确定地震计水平分向任一极性偏离的角度。     

基于时间平均的海底沉积物声速预测

在海底沉积物声速预测中,把不同海域的物理性质完全不同的沉积物试验数据拟合出一个统一的方程存在不足,不但数据过于离散,而且方程中参量的物理意义不明确。借鉴Wyllie等建立的时间平均方程的思路,基于声传播过程中路程、时间和声速之间的基本关系,引入了表征固液双相之间的堆垒方式和耦合状态对声传播路径影响的耦合系数,建立了沉积物声速预测模型。将鹿回头外海、南海南部和北部的沉积物测量数据进行线性回归分析,分别得出适用于不同海域的沉积物声速预测模型,拟合的复相关系数较大,偏差较小,证明该模型能够反映声速随孔隙度的变化规律,且各参数物理意义明确,具有一定的研究和理论探索意义。     

Errors prediction for vector-to-raster conversion based on map load and cell size

Vector-to-raster conversion is a process accompanied with errors.The errors are classified into predicted errors before rasterization and actual errors after that.Accurate prediction of the errors is beneficial to developing reasonable rasterization technical schemes and to making products of high quality.Analyzing and establishing a quantitative relationship between the error and its affecting factors is the key to error prediction.In this study,land cover data of China at a scale of 1:250 000 were taken as an example for analyzing the relationship between rasterization errors and the density of arc length(DA),the density of polygon(DP) and the size of grid cells(SG).Significant correlations were found between the errors and DA,DP and SG.The correlation coefficient(R2) of a model established based on samples collected in a small region(Beijing) reaches 0.95,and the value of R2 is equal to 0.91 while the model was validated with samples from the whole nation.On the other hand,the R2 of a model established based on nationwide samples reaches 0.96,and R2 is equal to 0.91 while it was validated with the samples in Beijing.These models depict well the relationships between rasterization errors and their affecting factors(DA,DP and SG).The analyzing method established in this study can be applied to effectively predicting rasterization errors in other cases as well.     

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基于Visual ModFlow的苑庄水源地地下水位预测

根据苑庄水源地的水文地质条件,建立了水源地的水文地质概念模型。在此基础上,采用Visual ModFlow对水源地地下水流场进行了数值模拟。误差统计分析表明,数值计算模型在识别与验证过程中的误差较小,模拟效果较为理想。根据所建立的数值模型,并按照设计开采量,对水源地运行后区域地下水位的变化趋势进行了预测。