The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemistry of Paraná-Etendeka basalts from Misiones,Argentina: Some new insights into the petrogenesis of high-Ti continental flood basalts

The Early Cretaceous (∼135–131 Ma) Paraná-Etendeka continental flood basalts, preserved in bulk in the Paraná basin of southern Brazil and vicinity, have been divided into low-Ti and high-Ti types that govern the southern and northern halves of the basin, respectively. We have examined a new sample set from the southern margin of the northern high-Ti segment of Paraná basalts in Misiones, northeastern Argentina. These basalts are strongly to moderately enriched in TiO₂ (2–4 wt.%), have relatively high Ti/Y (300–500), low MgO (3.5–6.5 wt.%), and high Fe (FeO(tot) 12–14 wt.%) and belong to the Pitanga and Paranapanema magma types of Peate et al. (1992). Nd and Sr isotope compositions are quite unvarying with ε_Nd (at 133 Ma) values of −4.6 to −3.6 and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.7054–0.7059 and show no variation with fractionation. Compared to high-Ti lavas in the central and northern parts of the Paraná high-Ti basalt segment, the lavas from Misiones are similar to those in the northeastern magin of the basin but less radiogenic in initial Nd isotope composition than those in the central part. This variation probably reflects mixed EM1-EM2 source components in the sublithospheric mantle. A polybaric melt model of a sublithospheric mantle source at the garnet lherzolite-spinel lherzolite transition is compatible with the observed Ti budget of the Pitanga and Paranapanema lavas, regardless of the Nd isotope composition of their purported source.     

酉阳河流域典型年汛期的基流分割研究

基流分割是水文学研究中的重难点问题之一,目前基流分割也存在许多方法.基于酉阳河典型年汛期实测日平均流量资料,分别采用Chapman-Maxwell改进方程数字滤波法一次滤波(参数N=1)以及二次滤波(参数N=2)、BFI(f)法、HYSEP固定步长法、HYSEP滑动步长法、HYSEP局部最小值法进行基流分割并对其结果进...     

多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算

首次将多维联合概率理论应用到三峡大坝设计洪水的风险分析,并用随机模拟方法(ISPUD)对四维联合概率分布进行了求解,得出在长江上游干流及主要支流来水量出现的不同组合和最不利组合情况下,相应三峡大坝不同联合重现期的设计洪水。可用于三峡工程的风险分析及防洪调度。     

The Effect of Geologic Structures on the Control of Floods in the Middle Yangtze River Valley

This paper discusses the role of geologic structures in the occurrence of floods and how to prevent flood in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and gives the author's suggestion that the Luoshan Qiakou be expanded and the land reclaimed from Dongting Lake be returned to the lake in compliance with the law of geology. .     

Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada

The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.     

地质环境系统的概念与特征——以洞庭湖区地质环境系统为例

地质环境系统是对人类经济技术活动作出共同响应的一定范围内地质环境的有机整体 ,是复杂的人工自然复合系统。文中以洞庭湖区防洪减灾为例 ,探讨了地质环境系统的概念、特征与研究思路。地质环境系统具有边界不确定性 ,影响传递的远距性与滞后性 ,系统行为的取向性、不确定性、难控性与反直观性 ,系统的社会性与共享性。因此 ,必须从成生、发展的角度 ,对其进行多学科综合研究 ,把握自然状态下系统演变的固有规律 ,分析叠加人为活动后系统结构、功能的变化及其机制。顺应自然、约束自然与人类自身 ,是建立人与自然相互协调的优化地质环境系统的根本原则。     

裂缝性边水油气藏水侵量计算方法

水侵量求取一直是困扰油藏工程师的一个问题，其中,裂缝性边水水侵量的计算还没有一个公开的有效方法。本文试根据不稳定渗流模型，提出裂缝性边水水侵量的新计算方法。     

峨眉山玄武岩研究中的一些问题的讨论

峨眉山玄武岩是当前研究的特点，本文从以下方面论述了峨眉山玄武岩研究中存在的一些问题：时空分布；岩石组合；高Ti和低Ti玄武岩；与其它典型大陆溢流玄武岩的异同点；与地幔柱的关系和地幔柱的起因。对这些问题提出了一些新的认识和解释，或者提出了解决这些问题的途径。这些问题的解决，对研究娥眉山玄武岩本身以及地幔柱－岩石圈的相互作用及其成矿效应均具有重要意义。     

黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型及其应用

为在宏观上对黄河中游水沙运动的变化规律从随机过程的角度予以揭示,以黄河中游潼关水文站1952-1998年期间流量超过6 000m3/s的次洪过程中的洪峰流量和相应的沙峰含沙量系列为基础,运用Copula函数方法构建了黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型并对其应用进行了探讨.结果表明:在水沙丰枯同步频率中,同丰的频率略大于同枯的...