Assessment on variability of extreme climate events for the Upper Thames River basin in Canada

Climate change may affect magnitude and frequency of regional extreme events with possibility of serious impacts on the existing infrastructure systems. This study investigates how the current spatial and temporal variations of extreme events are affected by climate change in the Upper Thames River basin, Ontario, Canada. A weather generator model is implemented to obtain daily time series of three climate variables for two future climate scenarios. The daily time series are disaggregated into hourly to capture characteristics of intense and rapidly changing storms. The maximum annual precipitation events for five short durations, 6‐, 12‐, 24‐, 48‐, and 72‐h durations, at each station are extracted from the generated hourly data. The frequency and seasonality analyses are conducted to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events corresponding to each duration. In addition, this study investigates the impacts of increase in temperature using reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation events under climate change will occur earlier than in the past. In addition, episodes of extremely high temperature may last longer up to 19·7% than under the no‐change climate scenario. This study points out that the revision of the design storms (e.g. 100‐ or 250‐year return period) is warranted for the west and the south east region of the basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the past 600 years inferred from ice cores and tree rings

The climatological signal of δ¹⁸O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ¹⁸O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.     

云南洱海炭屑记录揭示的近千年来古火演化历史

中国云南地区是森林火灾多发的典型区域, 了解该地区近千年来古火灾的演化历史及其驱动机制对于未来区域森林火灾的防护与治理以及生物多样性的保护具有重要的科学意义。本研究以滇西北地区洱海湖泊的3个沉积岩芯(EHB1岩芯, 58.5 cm; EHN1岩芯, 78.5 cm; EHB2岩芯, 80 cm)为研究对象, 通过对沉积物中高分辨率炭屑记录的分析, 基于 ²¹⁰Pb/¹³⁷Cs和加速器质谱法(AMS)¹⁴C测年技术建立的年代序列, 重建了洱海地区近千年来的古火演化历史。研究结果表明, 基于洱海湖泊沉积岩芯上部大炭屑指标重建的火事件与现代森林火灾记载资料的对比, 确定了大炭屑指标反映湖泊周围约10 km范围即大理市的古火活动情况, 验证了炭屑记录在重建古火灾活动方面的可靠性。古火历史的重建结果显示近千年来洱海地区共发生20次火事件, 其主要集中在1200~1350 A.D.期间和1540~2000 A.D.期间; 近千年来, 洱海地区古火活动的强度整体上呈现先降后升的趋势, 其中火事件的发生频率及其强度在近100年均达到千年来的最高值, 分别对应10次/300年和652.4粒/cm²/peak。炭屑记录和古火活动与区域高分辨率气候记录、植被状况以及人口历史资料的相关分析、冗余分析(RDA)和对比分析结果表明, 大理州人口变化是洱海地区近千年来古火活动最重要的驱动因子, 其次为区域降雨量和植被类型, 温度和植物量则对区域古火活动的影响较小。

     

Rehabilitation and Sustainable Use Pattern of Rocky-desertified Land in Southwest China＇s Poverty-stricken Karst Mountainous Areas ——A Case Study in Benggu Township, Xichou County, Yunnan, China

The rocky desert in a karst area directly causes the lack of soil, water and forest, hence leading to the poverty there. In 1990, the villagers from the Muzhe Village in Benggu Township, Xichou County, Yunnan declared a war against rocky desert in an attempt to ask the fields for more yields. They invented a distinctive land rehabilitation and sustainable use pattern called ＂transforming heaven and earth＂ that had been practiced in Southwest China＇s karst areas. The key mechanism of the pattern was to develop terraced fields with well conserved soil, water and fertility by exploding rocks in the fields, building stone walls, gathering more soil, and improving soil quality and productivity for the fields in combination with building of irrigation facilities and roads, as well as with forestation and agriculture structure adjustment. The purpose of the pattern was to alleviate poverty in the karst areas by improving soil productivity and promoting agricultural development. A typical area was studied with the help of Participatory Rural Appraisal （PRA） and the pattern was carried out there for fifteen years, have produced excellent ecological benefits and good economic benefits. Its application in the area approved that it was a sustainable land use pattern for rocky desert areas.     

DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据研究成果知识图谱分析

利用CitesSpace软件对1997-2017年DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据进行知识图谱分析,梳理国内外研究热点与演化历史,发掘研究难点,为后来研究者提供方向。本文选取Web of Science 核心数据集数据库收录的文献,进行合著特征分析、关键词共现分析和文献共被引分析。结果表明：① 夜间灯光数据相关研究最活跃的国家、机构和作者分别是美国、中国科学院和Elvidge;② 社会经济条件估计（人口、人口密度和电力）和城市扩展变化监测一直是国内外研究的热点和前沿;③ 目前的研究难点是如何减少灯光溢出效应以及灯光过饱和现象对研究精度的影响;④ 研究学科交叉性强,涉及地理学、测绘科学与技术、应用经济学、社会学等领域。因此,未来的研究趋势主要表现在数据处理方法的优化、研究领域的拓展以及深化已有研究成果3个方面。     

Retrieving multi-scale climatic variations from high dimensional time-series MODIS green vegetation cover in a tropical/subtropical mountainous island

【Title】
There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.     

外源化学物质对鱼类生长和GH/IGF-I轴的影响

生长激素/胰岛素样生长因子-I轴(Growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor-I axis,GH/IGF-I轴)是调控鱼类生长的主要内分泌轴线,许多外源化学物质能够影响鱼类的生长,并且能够干扰GH/IGF-I轴。本文介绍了鱼类GH/IGF-I轴的组成、功能及其对鱼类生长的调控模式,并从GH/IGF-I轴角度探究外源化学物质影响鱼类生长的内分泌作用机制,展望了该领域的发展方向。     

Millennial-scale evolution of Hunshandake Desert and climate change during the Holocene in Inner Mongolia,northern China

The Hunshandake Desert is located at the northern edge of the East Asian monsoon region,and its natural environment is sensitive to monsoonal changes.Geologic records suggest that desert evolution corresponding to climate change had experienced several cycles in the Holocene,and the evolutionary process can be distinguished by four dominant stages according to changing trends of the environment and climate.(1) Holocene Ameliorative Period(11.0-8.7 cal ka B.P.),when the desert area gradually shrank following an approaching warm-wet climate and strengthening summer monsoon.(2) Holocene Optimum(8.7-6.0 cal ka B.P.),when the majority of moving sand dunes were stabilized and vegetation coverage quickly expanded in a suitable warm-wet climate and a strong summer monsoon.(3) Holocene Multivariate Period(6.0-3.5 cal ka B.P.),during a low-amplitude desert transformed between moving and stabilized types under alternating functions of cold-dry with warm-wet climate,and winter monsoon with summer monsoon.(4) Holocene Decay Period(since 3.5 cal ka B.P.),when the desert area tended to expand along with a weakened summer monsoon and a dry climate.     

应用遥感数据研究中国植被生态系统与气候的关系

应用1982-1994年NOAA/AVHRR的归一化植被指数（NDVI）资料和587个气象台站的数据对我国不同类型植被生态系统和气候的关系进行研究，首先将我国的植被类型划分为21类，在此基础上分别研究了不同时间尺度下我国不同区域，不同植被类型和气候的关系。结果表明：在多年平均状态下，植被生态系统NDVI水平主要受水分条件的影响；年内变化上，温度对植被生态系统季相变化化起着比降水略大的作用，年降水量造成了植被季相响应的差异，在年际变化上，分别研究了4个季节和整个生长期尺度上的关系，一般情形为温度和降水对植被的年际波动起着大致相反的作用，不同植被类型在不同的生长时期（季节）对气候的变化响应方式也不同，发现在植被的生长期，我国南方和北方的植被生态系统对温度和降水的响应方式相反；同时存在2个植被-气候敏感区，分别为我国北方的典型草原到森林的过渡区和云南中部部分区域。     

自然灾害遗址型黑色旅游地参观者动机研究——以汶川地震北川遗址公园为例

黑色旅游是当前国内外研究的热点之一,黑色旅游开发是自然灾害发生地灾后恢复的一种重要方式。以往研究较多关注战争与事件型黑色旅游地,对自然灾害遗址型旅游地的研究较少。本文以汶川地震北川遗址公园为案例,构建了参观者动机测量量表;通过因子分析得到了教育与纪念动机、社交与亲情动机、感受与见证动机、认同与求新动机和好奇心动机五大类参观者动机类型。为分析和比较不同来源地参观者动机的特征,探究事件关注度和认知欲望对不同类型动机的影响程度差异,分别以全体参观者和四川参观者为样本构建了结构方程模型。结果显示:全体参观者模型中,事件关注度对教育与纪念、社交与亲情等动机影响较大,而对好奇心动机影响较小;认知欲望对教育与纪念、感受与见证以及好奇心等动机影响较大,而对认同和求新动机影响较小。在四川参观者模型中,参观者对汶川事件的关注度不能激发感受与见证动机,认知欲望对社交与亲情动机的影响也不显著,而对于汶川地震地区的认同感和集体认同感较强。