Contemporary versus long‐term denudation along a passive plate margin: the role of extreme events

Short‐term (contemporary) and long‐term denudation rates were determined for the Blue Mountains Plateau in the western Sydney Basin, Australia, to explore the role of extreme events (wildfires and catastrophic floods) in landscape denudation along a passive plate margin. Contemporary denudation rates were reconstructed using 40 years of river sediment load data from the Nattai catchment in the south‐west of the basin, combined with an analysis of hillslope erosion following recent wildfires. Long‐term denudation rates (10 kyr–10 Myr) were determined from terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides, apatite fission track thermochronology and post‐basalt flow valley incision. Contemporary denudation rates average several times lower than the long‐term average (5·5 ± 4 mm kyr^?1 versus 21·5 ± 7 mm kyr^?1). Erosion of sediment following wildfires accounts for only a small proportion (5%) of the contemporary rate. Most post‐fire sediment is stored on the lower slopes and valley floor, with the amount transported to the river network dependent on rainfall–run‐off conditions within the first few years following the fire. Historical catastrophic floods account for a much larger proportion (35%) of the contemporary erosion rate, and highlight the importance of these events in reworking stored material. Evidence for palaeofloods much larger than those experienced over the past 200 years suggests even greater sediment export potential. Mass movement on hillslopes along valleys incised into softer lithology appears to be a dominant erosion process that supplies substantial volumes of material to the valley floor. It is possible that a combination of infrequent mass movement events and high fluvial discharge could account for a significant proportion of the discrepancy between the contemporary and long‐term denudation rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对青藏高原末次冰盛期降温值、平衡线下降值与模拟结果的讨论

1999年 5期《第四纪研究》刊登的“青藏高原冰期环境与冰期全球降温”论文 ,内容丰富 ,提出了许多重大问题和新鲜讯息 ,发人深思。本文就部分内容进行讨论 ,认为根据新近若干冰期降温值较大的信息 ,就得出冰期降温幅度为过去认识的两倍的普遍性推断 ,还为时过早。青藏高原新近研究表明夏季降温值是较小的 ;冰川平衡线高度取决于以夏季温度为标志所提供的消融热量与全年降雪积累量的平衡 ,单纯就降温值 ,不能决定平衡线下降值 ;全球各地气候、地形差别很大 ,冰期变化也很悬殊 ,不存在全球均一的 1 0 0 0m左右平衡线下降值 ,干旱区的下降值多低于此数。青藏高原末次冰盛期 (LGM)冰川堆积 (终碛、侧碛 )和侵蚀形态(冰斗、槽谷 )一般保存良好、形态鲜明 ,较易识别 ,近年已获取测年资料 ,证明过去地貌法判别的LGM冰川规模 ,并以此决定的LGM平衡线位置基本恰当 ,当然也有误判者。从 2 0世纪 2 0年代起 ,研究者逐渐认识高原内部主要是中西部LGM平衡线下降值较小 ,经过多次改进的LGM平衡线高度分布图显示约有 1 /3左右地区 ,平衡线下降值不足 30 0m ,实为世所罕见。其原因可能主要在高原西北部是全球惟一高海拔寒旱核心区域 ,为极大陆型或极地型冰川分布区 ,以现代西昆仑山崇测冰川、古里雅冰帽为例 ,平衡线高度     

汕头市历史地震影响烈度的分析

本文将所论地震事件视为随机事件。按全概率定理分析了地震对场地的地震动影响(A)和超越给定值的概率P:对地震烈度序列进行了极值统计分析,得到汕头市地震平均重现期及其对应的烈度值。     

Storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan

All the available historic records of sea level and appropriate weather charts have been used to study storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. Computed sea levels were compared with hourly observed residual sea levels in De-Kastri. The agreement between computed and observed storm surges is quite satisfactory. The relative importance of various meteorological parameters and bottom topography in formation of the strong storm surge on 20–21 September 1975 was studied numerically.     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近40年南方高温变化特征与2003年的高温事件

利用从全国743个站点数据集中挑选出的江南、华南地区的121个站点1961-2004年逐日日最高气温和日平均气温资料，分析了近40多年来我国南方地区最高气温的变化特征。结果表明：2003年夏季江南、华南地区出现大范围异常高温天气。虽然在1961-2004年间，江南、华南地区年平均最高气温和年平均气温均有增加趋势，但夏季极端高温事件（≥35℃日数）并没有显著增加的趋势。分析最高气温的概率分布特征，得出2003年夏季江南、华南地区出现的极端酷热天气，只是年际变化的表现，而不是长期变化趋势的反映。     

气候变化与北疆北部2000年特大雪灾的必然性及预测

利用1960～2003年新疆阿勒泰地区7测站及塔城地区北部5测站当年11月至次年1月,44a气温、降水资料,研究了北疆北部冬季气候变化特征,解释了2000年该地区冬季特大雪灾极端气候事件出现的必然性,最后探讨了该地区冬季降水的预测问题;并得出一点很有意义的结论:在气候增暖、增湿背景下,特大雪灾也是可以预报的。     

“碧利斯”引发广西异常暴雨的成因分析

利用常规气象资料和卫星云图等资料对“碧利斯”造成异常暴雨的成因进行了综合分析，结果表明：“碧利斯”登陆减弱成的低压进入广西为强降水提供了动力抬升条件；中低层低压环流与强盛的西南暖湿气流相互作用，为降水云团不断发生和发展提供“燃料”；低层水汽辐合、高层辐散和强烈的上升运动是造成异常暴雨的主要原因。     

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations

In this paper we present a study concerning the climatic behaviour of two principal observables, temperature and precipitation as obtained from the measurements carried out at 50 Italian meteorological stations, since 1961. Analyses of WMO Climate Normals (CliNo) from 1961 to 1990 have been performed dividing the 50 Italian stations in three different classes: mountain (11 stations), continental (17) and coastal areas (21).The comparison of the CliNo 1961–1990 with the trend of temperature and precipitation for the period 1991–2000 showed a sharp significant increase of summer temperatures over Italy starting from 1980. This phenomenon was particularly evident for mountain stations, where a significant temperature increase has been recorded also during the autumn. Moreover, the analysis of precipitation data permitted to point out that, starting from 1980, mountain stations have been affected by a significant increase of precipitation events during autumn and winter, while for the rest of the Italian territory a reduction of precipitations has been recorded during early spring.