我国高原干旱气候区作物种植区划综合指标体系研究

在高原地区建立以气象、地理位置、经济效益等不同指标类型和权重系数的干旱气候作物生态适生种植区划综合指标体系,并以定量标准进行5级作物生态适生种植区划等级的划分。该综合指标体系具有实践性、经验性、客观性和应用性的特点。     

中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律

Using monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature, a surface humid index was proposed. According to the index, the distributed characteristics of extreme dryness has been fully analyzed. The results indicated that there is an obvious increasing trend of extreme dryness in the central part of northern China and northeastern China in the last 10 years, which shows a high frequency period of extreme dryness; while a low frequency period in the regions during the last 100 years. Compared with variation trend of the temperature in these regions, the region of high frequent extreme dryness is consistent with the warming trend in the same region.     

2007 Mutual events within the binary system of (22) Kalliope

In 2007, the asteroid Kalliope will reach one of its annual equinoxes. As a consequence, its small satellite Linus orbiting in the equatorial plane will undergo a season of mutual eclipses and occultations very similar to the one that the Galilean satellites undergo every 6 years. This paper is aimed at preparing a campaign of observations of these mutual events occurring from February to May 2007. This opportunity occurs only under favorable geometric conditions when the Sun and/or the Earth are close to the orbital plane of the system. This is the first international campaign devoted to the observation of photometric events within an asynchronous asteroidal binary system. We took advantage of a reliable orbit solution of Linus to predict a series of 24 mutual eclipses and 12 mutual occultations observable in the spring of 2007. Thanks to the brightness of Kalliope (m_v?11), these observations are easy to perform even with a small telescope. Anomalous attenuation events could be observed lasting for about 1-3 h with amplitude up to 0.09 mag. The attenuations are of two distinct types that can clearly be identified as primary and secondary eclipses similar to those that have been previously observed in other minor planet binary systems [Pravec, P., Scheirich, P., Kusnirák, P., Sarounová, L., Mottola, S., Hahn, G., Brown, P., Esquerdo, G., Kaiser, N., Krzeminski, Z., Pray, D.P., Warner, B.D., Harris, A.W., Nolan, M.C., Howell, E.S., Benner, L.A.M., Margot, J.-L., Galád, A., Holliday, W., Hicks, M.D., Krugly, Yu.N., Tholen, D., Whiteley, R., Marchis, F., Degraff, D.R., Grauer, A., Larson, S., Velichko, F.P., Cooney, W.R., Stephens, R., Zhu, J., Kirsch, K., Dyvig, R., Snyder, L., Reddy, V., Moore, S., Gajdos, S., Világi, J., Masi, G., Higgins, D., Funkhouser, G., Knight, B., Slivan, S., Behrend, R., Grenon, M., Burki, G., Roy, R., Demeautis, C., Matter, D., Waelchli, N., Revaz, Y., Klotz, A., Rieugné, M., Thierry, P., Cotrez, V., Brunetto, L., Kober, G., 2006. Photometric survey of binary near-Earth asteroids. Icarus 181, 63-93]. With these favorable circumstances, such photometric observations will provide us tight constraints regarding physical properties of Linus such as the size, shape and synodic spin period.     

Snow cover monitoring in the Northern Patagonia Icefield using MODIS satellite images (2000–2006)

The snow cover of the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) was monitored after applying the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Red/NIR band ratio to 134 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images captured between 2000 and 2006. The final results show that the snow cover extent of the NPI fluctuates a lot in winter, in addition to its seasonal behaviour. The minimum snow cover extent of the period (3600 km²) was observed in March 2000 and the maximum (11,623 km²) in August 2001. We found that temperature accounts for approximately 76% of the variation of the snow cover extent over the entire icefield. We also show two different regimes of winter snow cover fluctuations corresponding to the eastern and the western sides of the icefield. The seasonality of the snow cover on the western side was determined by temperature rather than precipitation, while on the east side the seasonality of the snow cover was influenced by the seasonal behaviour of both temperature and precipitation. This difference can be explained by the two distinct climates: coastal and continental. The fluctuations in the winter snow cover extent were more pronounced and less controlled by temperature on the western side than on the eastern side of the icefield. Snow cover extent was correlated with temperature R² = 0.75 and R² = 0.74 for the western and eastern sides, respectively. Since limited meteorological data are available in this region, our investigation confirmed that the change in snow cover is an interesting climatic indicator over the NPI providing important insights in mass balance comprehension. Since snow and ice were distinguished snow cover fluctuations can be associated to fluctuations in the snow accumulation area of the NPI. In addition, days with minimum snow covers of summer season can be associated to the period in which Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) is the highest.     

Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

New paleovegetation and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwestern Mexico are presented. This work involves climate and biome reconstruction using Plant Functional Types (PFT) assigned to pollen taxa. We used fossil pollen data from four Holocene peat bogs located at different altitudes (1500‑2000 m) at the border region of Sonora and Chihuahua at around 28° N latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.; Ortega-Rosas, C.I., Peñalba, M.C., Guiot, J. Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico. Submitted for publication of Palaeobotany and Palynology). The closest modern pollen data come from pollen analysis across an altitudinal transect from the Sonoran Desert towards the highlands of the temperate SMO at the same latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.). An additional modern pollen dataset of 400 sites across NW Mexico and the SW United States was compiled from different sources (Davis, O.K., 1995. Climate and vegetation pattern in surface samples from arid western U.S.A.: application to Holocene climatic reconstruction. Palynology 19, 95–119, North American Pollen Database, Latin-American Pollen Database, personal data, and different scientific papers). For the biomization method (Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., Cheddadi, R., 1996. Reconstructing biomes from paleoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185–194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555–584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°–6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.     

Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.     

Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons

The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.     

The history of environmental change and adaptation in eastern Saloum–Senegal—Driving forces and perceptions

Environmental change in the Sahel–Sudan zone of West Africa has been a major issue in development debates over the last decades. Using remote sensing based land cover change analysis, archival data, national and international statistical data, and household interviews, we analyze the drivers of environmental change in Eastern Saloum in Central East Senegal as well as the local perceptions of these changes and adaptation. Being part of the ground nut basin, Eastern Saloum has witnessed rapid environmental degradation caused by the conversion of forest and savanna areas to agricultural land during the last 20–30 years and by a combination of decline in precipitation, soil degradation, a diversity of policies with little concern for the environment, fluctuating markets and population pressure. Farmers perceive the environmental change mainly as land degradation and poor soil fertility, though recent extensification of agriculture counters this effect and has led to increased vegetation cover in marginal areas. They identified erratic climate, agricultural policies, insufficient food production and desire to increase income as the main drivers of change in the area. We conclude that while climate variability has influenced environmental change in the area, various types of State interventions in agriculture and global market fluctuations appear to have been the main underlying causes of environmental degradation.     

The Ascraeus Mons fan-shaped deposit: Volcano-ice interactions and the climatic implications of cold-based tropical mountain glaciation

Amazonian-aged fan-shaped deposits extending to the northwest of each of the Tharsis Montes in the Tharsis region on Mars have been interpreted to have originated from mass-wasting, volcanic, tectonic and/or glacial processes. We use new data from MRO, MGS, and Odyssey to characterize these deposits. Building on recent evidence for cold-based glacial activity at Pavonis Mons and Arsia Mons, we interpret the smaller Ascraeus fan-shaped deposit to be of glacial origin. Our geomorphological assessment reveals a number of characteristics indicative of glacial growth and retreat, including: (1) a ridged facies, interpreted to be composed of drop moraines emplaced during episodic glacial advance and retreat, (2) a knobby facies, interpreted to represent vertical downwasting of the ice sheet, and (3) complex ridges showing a cusp-like structure. We also see evidence of volcano-ice interactions in the form of: (1) an arcuate inward-facing scarp, interpreted to have formed by the chilling of lava flows against the glacial margin, (2) a plateau feature, interpreted to represent a subglacial eruption, and (3) knobby facies superimposed on flat-topped flows with leveed channels, interpreted to be subglacial inflated lava flows that subsequently drained and are covered by glacial till. We discuss the formation mechanisms of these morphologies during cold-based glacial activity and concurrent volcanism. On the basis of a Mid- to Late-Amazonian age (250-380 Ma) established from crater size-frequency distribution data, we explore the climatic implications of recent glaciation at low latitudes on Mars. GCM results show that increased insolation to the poles at high obliquities (>45°) forces sublimation of polar ice, which is transported to lower latitudes and deposited on the flanks of the Tharsis Montes. We assess how local orographic effects, the mass balance of the glacier, and the position of equilibrium line altitudes, all played a role in producing the observed geomorphologies. In doing so, we outline a glacial history for the evolution of the Ascraeus Mons fan-shaped deposit and compare its initiation, growth and demise with those of Arsia Mons and Pavonis Mons.     

PFS/MEX observations of the condensing CO2 south polar cap of Mars

The condensing CO₂ south polar cap of Mars and the mechanisms of the CO₂ ice accumulation have been studied through the analysis of spectra acquired by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) during the first two years of ESA's Mars Express (MEX) mission. This dataset spans more than half a martian year, from Ls∼330° to Ls∼194°, and includes the southern fall season which is found to be extremely important for the study of the residual south polar cap asymmetry. The cap expands symmetrically and with constant speed during the fall season. The maximum extension occurs sometime in the 80°-90° Ls range, when the cap edges are as low as −40° latitude. Inside Hellas and Argyre basins, frost can be stable at lower latitudes due to the higher pressure values, causing the seasonal cap to be asymmetric. Within the seasonal range considered in this paper, the cap edge recession rate is approximately half the rate at which the cap edge expanded. The longitudinal asymmetries reduce during the cap retreat, and disappear around Ls∼145°. Two different mechanisms are responsible for CO₂ ice accumulation during the fall season, especially in the 50°-70° Ls range. Here, CO₂ condensation in the atmosphere, and thus precipitation, is allowed exclusively in the western hemisphere, and particularly in the longitudinal corridor of the perennial cap. In the eastern hemisphere, the cap consists mainly of CO₂ frost deposits, as a consequence of direct vapor deposition. The differences in the nature of the surface ice deposits are the main cause for the residual south polar cap asymmetry. Results from selected PFS orbits have also been compared with the results provided by the martian general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie dynamique (LMD) in Paris, with the aim of putting the observations in the context of the global circulation. This first attempt of cross-validation between PFS measurements and the LMD GCM on the one hand confirms the interpretation of the observations, and on the other hand shows that the climate modeling during the southern polar night on Mars is extremely sensitive to the dynamical forcing.