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181.
美国长期天气预报业务的新发展──发布气候展望 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
从1995年元月份起,美国天气局正式发布预见期为一年的业务性气候展望,该文简要地介绍了美国天气局作出这些重大变更的科学依据、预报方法、预报制作与预报准确等方面的情况。 相似文献
182.
The characteristics of simulated air flow over Andaman Islands are studied with a two-dimensional version of the University
of Virginia meso scale model (UVMM). Using the observed synoptic data as initial conditions, 24 hr simulations are obtained
for a day each in April and November. These days are chosen to study the variations in the simulated flow pattern under different
synoptic conditions including precipitation effects. A large scale condensation scheme is employed to consider the effect
of latent heat release on the perturbations. The results show that the latent heat released by condensation strengthens the
intensity of perturbations and the topography accelerates the arrival of sea breeze by about an hour. The model-simulated
results, given in graphical form, are discussed and compared with available observations. 相似文献
183.
DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF PREDICTION OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
DURING 1997 ~ 1998 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
By comparing with ENSO events that ever happened in the history, the basic features and probable
causes of the anomalous sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean during 1997 and 1998 have been
analyzed diagnostically. It is found that the 1997/1998 El Nino had significant abnormalities and peculiarities. It
differs from the previous El Ni?o events falling into the simple “eastern pattern” or “western pattern”. The
predictions of 1997/1998 El Ni?o event have also been tested with an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled
dynamic model. The results show that the skills of the 0~24 lead month forecasts for the warm event are all
above 0.5. The predictions of the mature phase and the later stages of the warm event are better than those of the
beginning phase. 相似文献
184.
利用天气数值预报产品建立贵州黔西南州分县温度预报方程的方法及应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用2002~2004年1~12月EC、T213天气数值产品的温度格点实时分析资料、预报资料以及贵州省黔西南州8个测站观测资料,从160个样本中筛选出相关较好的因子,利用多元回归统计模型,以及根据地理环境,天气形势分型造成的温度差值(ΔT)为逐步订正值,建立黔西南州分县温度预报方程。在2005年11月~2006年2月应用中取得较好效果,预报误差小于±3.0℃,平均误差1.3℃。 相似文献
185.
从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。 相似文献
186.
J. Venkata Ratnam D. R. Sikka Akshara Kaginalkar Amit Kesarkar N. Jyothi Sudipta Banerjee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1641-1665
As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season
of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made
using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature
(SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre
for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten
years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms
of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day),
the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99%
of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value
in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble
mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad. 相似文献
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