基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群城镇扩展格局与驱动力多维解析

城镇用地扩展格局及驱动力研究对城市群发展规划与决策具有重要意义。以京津冀地区为例,基于城镇用地扩展强度指数、城镇用地扩展差异指数、分形维数、土地城镇化率和重心转移模型,多维解析了城市群城镇用地扩展格局特征,并耦合重心转移模型和时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型构建重心-GTWR模型,在对空间格局进行长时间序列多维度指标分析的基础上,运用该模型依序对其特征进行驱动力解读,进而总结凝练京津冀区域发展的主导模式与城市核心驱动力。主要结论为：① 1990-2015年,京津冀城市群城镇用地扩展强度呈现“下降-上升-下降”的趋势,高峰时期在2005-2010年,在2005年之前高速发展城市集中在北京、天津、保定和廊坊,2005年之后集中在邢台和邯郸;② 城市群城镇用地重心虽呈现出发散态势,但城市之间的局部相互作用力逐渐增强,城镇用地扩展驱动力表现出空间溢出特征;③ 京津冀城市群空间发展模式由以北京和天津为中心的双核发展模式向多核发展模式转变,并出现北部资源运输核心、中部经济发展核心和南部投资发展核心三大功能核心组团,城市群趋向于多核功能协同发展模式;④ 重心-GTWR模型结合了时空非平稳性和城市空间相互作用,将城市群城镇用地扩展作为一个时空变化系统进行分析,经验证,该模型在城镇用地扩展格局驱动力分析研究中具有可行性。     

资源枯竭型城市空间扩展进程研究——以淮北市为例

城市空间扩展是衡量新型城镇化背景下城市化进程的重要指标之一,对于研究资源枯竭型城市的可持续发展也有重要的意义。以遥感影像为基础,结合ArcGIS和Matlab软件实现建成区范围的自动提取;选取城市化强度、重心和紧凑度等指标,分析资源枯竭型城市空间扩展的时空特征;结合研究区实际情况和部分统计数据探讨了城市空间扩展驱动机制。结果表明：1992-2016年,淮北市建成区面积由13.64 km²增加到130.19 km²,净增8.54倍。城市化强度水平处于中等程度,城市扩展强度处于较高的水平,城市土地利用集约程度不高;重心总体呈现出东偏的姿态,建成区用地紧凑度逐渐下降。经济及人口、政府决策、交通水平和采煤塌陷区分别是研究区城市空间扩展的驱动机制、引导机制、内生机制和限制机制。     

Laboratory investigations of the thermal strain of frozen soils, using fiber-optic strain gauges based on Bragg gratings

Measurements of the thermal deformations of frozen soil samples were performed in the cold laboratory in temperature range from 0°C to-12°C.Fiber Bragg Gratings strain and temperature sensors were used to measure the deformation and temperature inside the samples.A number of tests with the samples prepared from Kaolin and Cambrian clay saturated with fresh water,and prepared from fine and silt sand saturated with fresh or saline water,are performed.Thermal deformations of the samples are analyzed depending on the cyclic changes of their temperature.     

Evolution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the Late Quaternary

Due to the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP), the cryosphere gradually developed on the higher mountain summits after the Neocene, becoming widespread during the Late Quaternary. During this time, permafrost on the QTP experienced repeated expansion and degradation. Based on the remains and cross-correlation with other proxy records such as those from glacial landforms, ice-core and paleogeography, the evolution and changes of permafrost and environmental changes on the QTP during the past 150,000 years were deduced and are presented in this paper. At least four obvious cycles of the extensive and intensive development, expansion and decay of permafrost occurred during the periods of 150–130, 80–50, 30–14 and after 10.8 ka B.P.. During the Holocene, fluctuating climatic environments affected the permafrost on the QTP, and the peripheral mountains experienced six periods of discernible permafrost changes:(1) Stable development of permafrost in the early Holocene(10.8 to 8.5–7.0 ka B.P.);(2) Intensive permafrost degradation during the Holocene Megathermal Period(HMP, from 8.5–7.0 to 4.0–3.0 ka B.P.);(3) Permafrost expansion during the early Neoglacial period(ca. 4,000–3,000 to 1,000 a B.P.);(4) Relative degradation during the Medieval Warm Period(MWP, from 1,000 to 500 a B.P.);(5) Expansion of permafrost during the Little Ice Age(LIA, from 500 to 100 a B.P.);(6) Observed and predicted degradation of permafrost during the 20 th and 21 st century. Each period differed greatly in paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and permafrost distribution, thickness, areal extent, and ground temperatures, as well as in the development of periglacial phenomena. Statistically, closer dating of the onset permafrost formation, more identification of permafrost remains with richer proxy information about paleoenvironment, and more dating information enable higher resolution for paleo-permafrost reconstruction. Based on the scenarios of persistent climate warming of 2.2～2.6 °C in the next 50 years, and in combination of the monitored trends of climate and permafrost changes, and model predictions suggest an accelerated regional degradation of plateau permafrost. Therefore, during the first half of the 21 st century, profound changes in the stability of alpine ecosystems and hydro(geo)logical environments in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers may occur. The foundation stability of key engineering infrastructures and sustainable economic development in cold regions on the QTP may be affected.     

地缘经济背景下的老挝橡胶林地扩张监测及其影响研究综述

20世纪90年代以来,在全球橡胶市场和地缘经济合作机制的影响下,作为中南半岛唯一的内陆国家,老挝正在经历以橡胶林扩展种植为主导的土地覆被/土地利用变化(LCLUC)。橡胶扩展种植不仅对全球最大的橡胶消费国——中国进口天然橡胶至关重要,其引起的LCLUC也对老挝国内农户社会经济和生态环境造成了深刻影响。本文首先总结了老挝橡胶林种植模式、扩展机制和发展潜力,其次回顾了老挝橡胶扩展种植相关研究进展及橡胶林遥感方法研究进展。综述表明：老挝境内橡胶林种植模式、适宜性空间评价、遥感监测、社会经济与生态环境影响评估研究,总体上仍处于起步阶段。迄今,有关老挝全国层面的橡胶林种植和扩展地理分布及时空变化信息仍非常缺乏,同时橡胶林种植与快速扩展对农户生计和自然环境(水土流失、水源涵养和生物多样性等)影响尚缺乏系统研究,这也是未来需要优先关注的研究方向。本文有助于更好地理解老挝橡胶林扩展特征及其社会与环境影响,既可为指导老挝橡胶种植业有序良性发展提供科技支撑,也可为中国海南与云南等省橡胶发展提供借鉴。     

考虑内定向误差的外方位元素精度分析

在对数据质量的要求越来越严格的今天,我们对数据质量的评价也必须越来越系统、可靠。本文就是在系统分析的基础上推导出了求解外方位元素的误差传递模型,并从中分析了内定向误差对外方位元素精度的影响,从而改进和完善了外方位元素精度的评定方法,使得外方位元素精度的评定具有更高的精确性和可靠性。     

基于Sentinel-1A的2021年双湖MW5.7地震同震破裂模型

利用Sentinel-1A SAR数据提取2021年西藏双湖县M_W5.7地震同震形变场及2.5D形变场,反演断层滑动分布模型。计算不同节面解为接收断层产生的库仑应力变化差异确定发震构造,并结合余震分布信息评估未来地震风险性。结果表明,地震震中为34.37°N、87.71°E,震源深度6.51 km,发震断层倾向东、走向33°、倾角50°、平均滑动角-74°,以倾滑为主兼有少量左旋走滑分量,最大滑动量0.26 m。短时间内,震区南部地震风险较小,北部则需要结合更多资料进一步分析。本次地震是在羌塘块体持续向东扩张的背景下,受EW向拉伸作用使得黄水湖正断层发生的一次弥散型变形活动,SN向地堑得到进一步扩张。     

Population dynamics, socioeconomic change and land colonization in northern Jordan, with special reference to the Badia Research and Development Project area

The paper reports on preliminary observations from northern Jordan aimed at testing the view that people migrate from areas of relatively high potential for cultivation to the marginal semi-arid/arid frontier because of social differentiation, political factors or environmental constraints. Cultivated areas have been mapped from multi-date remotely sensed imagery, a typology of fields in the area has been constructed, and their dynamics between 1972 and 1992 analysed. In addition, semi-structured interviews with farmers attempted to understand the reasoning behind village growth, changing farming systems and cultivation practices. The findings are discussed in the context of the area's demography and national and regional shifts in economic policy.     

Temperature evolution between 50 K and 320 K of the thermal expansion tensor of gypsum derived from neutron powder diffraction data

The unit cell parameters, extracted from Rietveld analysis of neutron powder diffraction data collected between 4.2 K and 320 K, have been used to calculate the temperature evolution of the thermal expansion tensor for gypsum for 50 ≤ T ≤ 320 K. At 300 K the magnitudes of the principal axes are α ₁₁  = 1.2(6) × 10⁻⁶ K⁻¹, α ₂₂  = 36.82(1) × 10⁻⁶ K⁻¹ and α ₃₃  = 25.1(5) × 10⁻⁶ K⁻¹. The maximum axis, α ₂₂ , is parallel to b, and using Institution of Radio Engineers (IRE) convention for the tensor orthonormal basis, the axes α ₁₁ and α ₃₃ have directions equal to (−0.979, 0, 0.201) and (0.201, 0, 0.979) respectively. The orientation and temperature dependent behaviour of the thermal expansion tensor is related to the crystal structure in the I2/a setting. Received 12 February 1998 / Revised, accepted 19 October 1998     

数字相机在类似棋盘检校场中的检校方法研究

针对众多非量测单相机的检校方法,通过分析数码相机的误差来源,并考虑相机的内、外方位元素和物镜光学畸变等因素引起的误差,提出一种基于类似棋盘检校场的数字相机检校方法。利用共线方程和二维DLT之间的关系导出了由二维DLT的9个参数表达的主纵线方程,构建同形矩阵,通过不同摄站拍摄目标的多幅影像,求得内、外方位元素的初始值,并由多张影像的空间后方交会求出相机需要检校参数,再由假设检验来检验相机系统参数的显著性。经实例分析表明,利用改进后的方法求解参数的精度满足实际需求,且效率更高。