The research of a comprehensive program for earthquake prediction with seismological methods

In this paper, the MYCIN inexact inference method in Expert System is applied to comprehensive earthquake prediction. And it is proposed that the methods of determining various certainty factors, correcting correlation between anomalous evidences and computing comprehensive certainty factor of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake. By use of these methods, 18 earthquake cases since 1966 in North China is tested with seismological anomalies in different seismogenic stage, and the comprehensive certainty factors of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake are computed. At last some problems in application are discussed. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 328–337, 1991.     

分布式专家系统在大坝安全管理中的应用研究

介绍了一种基于Internet的分布式专家系统,说明了分布式专家系统的出现和应用,将会有利于解决专家系统中知识获取的瓶颈问题和降低复杂问题的求解难度。通过将其应用到水利信息化工程的大坝安全监测管理中,实现了专家知识的全局共享和分布式问题求解。     

土壤侵蚀专家系统的建立与应用研究

介绍了土壤蚀专家系统的建造原理与方法。该系统可对黄土地区的土壤侵蚀进行快速准确的、预报，并对水寺流失的综合治理规划决策提出几种可行性方案供用户选择。用该系统对晋西离石王家沟流域羊道沟的土壤侵蚀进行了试验研究，并对试验结果进行了系统评价。     

一个圈闭评价专家系统的设计与实现

本文详细论述一个圈闭评价专家系统的设计与实现技术,该系统能够接收用户提供的圈闭信息,根据知识库中的专家知识给出圈闭的含油气资源评价;系统采用了基于黑扳的控制结构和基于规则的知识表达以及演绎推理、模糊推理、模糊综合评判等一系列技术在IBM-PC机上用C语言及少量汇编语言实现。系统已通过专家鉴定。     

Do climate engineering experts display moral-hazard behaviour?

Discourse analyses and expert interviews about climate engineering (CE) report high levels of reflectivity about the technologies’ risks and challenges, implying that CE experts are unlikely to display moral hazard behaviour, i.e. a reduced focus on mitigation. This has, however, not been empirically tested. Within CE experts we distinguish between experts for radiation management (RM) and for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and analyse whether RM and CDR experts display moral hazard behaviour. For RM experts, we furthermore look at whether they agree to laboratory and field research, and how they perceive the risks and benefits of one specific RM method, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). Analyzing experts’ preferences for climate-policy options, we do not find a reduction of the mitigation budget, i.e. moral hazard, for RM or CDR experts compared to climate-change experts who are neither experts for RM nor for CDR. In particular, the budget shares earmarked for RM are low. The perceptions of risks and benefits of SAI are similar for RM and climate-change experts. Despite the difference in knowledge and expertise, experts and laypersons share an understanding of the benefits, while their perceptions of the risks differ: experts perceive the risks to be larger.

Key policy insights

• Experts surveyed all prioritize mitigation over carbon dioxide removal and in particular radiation management.

• In the views of the experts, SAI is not a viable climate policy option within the next 25 years, and potentially beyond, as global field-testing (which would be a precondition for long-term deployment) is widely rejected.

• In the case of SAI, greater knowledge leads to increased awareness of the uncertainty and complexity involved. Policy-makers need to be aware of this relationship and the potential misconceptions among laypersons with limited knowledge, and should follow the guidelines about communicating risks and uncertainties of CE that experts have been advised to follow.

     

基于ERDAS的遥感影像分类方法研究

为了提高遥感影像分类精度,对传统的非监督分类、监督分类和专家分类进行机理分析,提出将影像中的纹理信息作为专家知识改进分类精度的技术方案。以胶州市QuickBird遥感影像作为试验数据,基于ERDAS IMAG-INE 8.6软件平台,对非监督分类、监督分类和专家分类进行实验数据比较分析,实验数据表明改进的专家分类方法分类精度最高,由于纹理信息参与专家分类,可较好地解决“同谱异物”和“同物异谱”对分类的干扰,优化分类后的影像,提高信息提取的准确度。     

智能化土地定级估价信息系统设计与实现

总结分析了当前系统中存在的主要问题,提出将GIS、SDM、ES和可视化等多种信息技术进行有机结合,共同构建具有智能特性和辅助决策功能的土地定级估价信息系统。给出了GIS、SDM、ES和可视化等技术集成的基本框架,设计了基于多种信息技术集成的土地定级估价信息系统的基本结构。采用VC++6.0和MO2.0结合开发了基于多种技术集成的土地定级估价信息系统。研究表明,系统定级估价工作流程简单,结果可靠,且具有良好的移植性、复用性、扩展性和广泛适应性,能较好地解决土地定级估价中土地信息缺失、定性因子量化困难等半结构和非结构化问题。     

古尔班通古特沙漠地衣结皮中可培养细菌多样性初探

为了解古尔班通古特沙漠优势结皮类型--地衣结皮中可培养细菌的多样性,利用3种培养基经稀释涂布和划线分离得到18株纯培养菌株。对分离的所有菌株提取基因组DNA,利用细菌通用引物扩增得到16S rDNA的序列并测序。结果表明：（1）基于Ribosomal Database Project (RDP)在线归类分析,18株菌可初步归为3门3纲3目6科6属,未见新属,未分离到固氮菌属（Azotobacter）。其中,6株归为变形菌门(Proteobacteria)、6株属于放线菌门(Actinobacteria)、6株属于厚壁菌门 (Firmicutes); 不动杆菌属（Acinetobacter）、链霉菌属（Streptomyces）、芽孢杆菌属（Bacillus）为优势属,分别占分离菌株数的33%、28%、22%。（2）在EzTaxon-e数据库中对各菌株序列进行进一步的BLAST同源性分析表明,18株菌可进一步归为14个OTUs（Operational Taxonomic Unit）,未见疑似新种（同源性均>97%）,其中链霉菌属OTU比例最高（35.71%）,依次为不动杆菌属和芽孢杆菌属（二者均为21.43%）。（3）古尔班通古特沙漠地衣结皮中的可培养细菌Shannon-Wiener多样性指数为2.5532,均匀度指数为0.9675。（4）上述可培养细菌在生物土壤结皮中具有固沙、加速矿化、生防等多重生态潜能。     

土地质量地球化学评估方法研究——以慈溪市为例

以地球化学方法对慈溪市土地质量进行评估,通过层次分析法、因子分析法和专家经验法三种评估方法的对比研究,认为层次分析法、因子分析法比较适合一般土地质量评估,而专家经验法更适合污染土地质量地球化学评估。本文探索了适合土地质量评估的优选方案,为土地质量生态管理和土地合理规划、利用提供依据。     

Expansion of landscape characterisation methods within the Hydrogeological Landscape Framework: application in the Australian Capital Territory

The Hydrogeological Landscape (HGL) Framework is a landscape-characterisation tool that is used to discern areas of similar physical, hydrogeological, hydrological, chemical and biological properties, referred to as HGL Units. The HGL Framework facilitates prioritisation of natural-resource management investment by identifying current and potential hazards in the landscape. Within prioritised regions, on-ground management actions are tailored for specific Management Areas within individual HGL Units. The HGL Unit boundaries are determined through expert interpretation of spatial and field based datasets, such as climate, landform, geology, regolith, soil, stream network, groundwater flow systems, water quality and vegetation assemblages. The resulting HGL Units are validated by an interdisciplinary team using field assessment and biophysical testing. The use of the HGL Framework for new applications creates opportunities for refinement of the existing methodology and products for end users. This paper uses an application in the Australian Capital Territory as a case study to illustrate two enhanced techniques for the landscape characterisation component of the HGL Framework: use of an unsupervised statistical learning algorithm, Self-Organising Maps (SOM), to further validate HGL Units; and landform modelling to assist in delineation of Management Areas. The combined use of SOM and landform modelling techniques provides statistical support to the existing expert and field-based techniques, ensuring greater rigour and confidence in determination of landscape patterns. This creates a more refined HGL Framework landscape-characterisation tool, facilitating more precise hazard assessment and strategic natural-resource management by end users.