廊固凹陷大兴砾岩体隐蔽油气藏储层预测研究

廊固凹陷大兴断层下降盘沙三下砾岩体具有储层埋藏深、非均质性强的隐蔽性油气藏特征，近年来钻探成功率较低。针对该区地质条件，需充分借助综合地质专家系统，采取分级约束沆程开展砾岩体储层地震预测研究，可揭示砾岩体储层的空间展布和油气分布规律，明确大兴砾岩体下步滚动方向，并有效地降低了勘探风险。     

基坑工程支护选型多样性探讨

在建造深基坑工程支护选型专家系统ｔｙｐｅＥＳ过程中,通过对专家知识的分析后认为：支护选型要全面地考虑支护主类、复合型支护、支护亚类及地下水处理方案等才比较合理。最后举例用新的产生式规则形式表达出这些专家知识。     

The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets.

POLICY INSIGHTS

• No minimum transparency and quality standards exist to guide the development of GHG emission scenario forecasts, not even when these forecasts are used to set national climate change mitigation targets.

• No accountability mechanisms appear to be in place at the national level to ensure that national governments rely on scientifically sound processes to develop GHG emission scenarios.

• Using probabilistic forecasts to underpin emission reduction targets represents a scientifically sound option for reflecting in the target the uncertainty to which those forecasts are subject, thus increasing the validity of the target.

• Setting up minimum transparency and quality standards, and holding governments accountable for their choice of forecasting methods could lead to more robust emission reduction targets nationally and, by extension, internationally.

     

Prototype development of GEOEXPLORER, a knowledge-based system for supergene deposits: Identification of favorable areas for bauxite

GEOEXPLORER is a knowledge-based system under development to support the prospecting and exploration of supergene deposits. As a new type of multi-stage expert systetn, GEOEXPLORER is not only able to deal with problems of searching for supergene deposits, but will also cover both the evaluation of the spatial occurrences and the economic values of the deposits considered. A first prototype of GEOEXPLORER has been developed for bauxite deposits. It is a rule-based system implemented in PROLOG and can be used to identify favorable areas for bauxite prospecting. This paper discusses this prototype of GEOEXPLORER.     

中国成矿体系专家系统的初步实现

本次研究初步建立了数字化和系统化的中国成矿体系专家系统,在上一轮研究深入总结中国前寒武纪、古生代、中生代、新生代成矿作用基础上,对每一个矿床成矿系列(及亚系列)予以统一编号、详细描述,输入计算机,形成数据库,并新设计、增加了若干功能,以便查阅和使用,可为地质大调查和矿产资源的勘查、管理工作提供便捷的查询服务.     

根据岩石力学性质设计及合理使用金刚石钻头专家系统的研制

经过系统分析总结钻探专家们根据岩石力学性质设计及合理使用金刚石钻头方面的知识和经验，选择了合适的工具，编制成相应的专家系统，便于推广应用。     

Applying a fish expert system for ranking the biological effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons on the rockfish Sebastiscus marmoratus in the Maowei Sea,China

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) pollution, particularly in coastal environments, is a global concern. In this study, the biomonitoring and ranking effects of PAHs in the rockfish Sebastiscus marmoratus were determined in the Maowei Sea, China. The results showed that the concentrations of the 16 priority PAHs detected in the surface seawater were moderate compared with those in other coastal areas worldwide, and the possible sources were rapid industrialization and urbanization combined with atmospheric deposition and runoff. Nested analysis of variance (ANOVA) suggested significant differences in the hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activities and phenanthrene-derived metabolites in bile between the port area and the oyster farming area. The fish expert system (FES) was applied to evaluate the biological effects of PAHs on fish. The FES data demonstrated that the biological effect levels of Site S1 (level III, medium stress) were higher than those of the other sampling sites (level II, low stress).     

地理专家知识表示的框架网络模型研究

基于框架网络结构模型的专家知识表示方法 ,采用知识的框架网络结构描述地学环境的实体单元 ,将各级专家知识的表示以指针连接 ,形成了由知识到语义的专家知识表示的框架网络。以乌鲁木齐河流域土地合理利用规划决策专家系统的构建为例 ,阐述了该模型的构造方法和实现方案 ,并讨论了系统知识库的组织结构和推理规则的设计原理。     

专家主持气象节目的优势与问题分析

目前专家主持播讲的电视节目正在悄然兴起,而在电视气象节目中专家型主持人非常少见。本文探讨了专家主持播讲气象节目的优势、可行性以及应注意的问题,对专家主持播讲气象节目的形式给予了充分肯定,同时指出必须切实避免一些容易出现的问题。