Using rainfall-runoff modeling to interpret lake level data

Using water balance computations, the behavior of different kinds of lakes is discussed. Simple analytical expressions relating water level to hydrological conditions and lake bathymetry are given. The importance of knowing the river basin area when analyzing lake levels is stressed. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model including lake routing is used to simulate runoff and lake levels and to compute quasi-steady state conditions and long-term transient situations. It is suggested that models can be used to construct curves relating lake levels to precipitation and lake evaporation. By comparing with paleo-lake levels, the annual precipitation related to these levels can be found, provided information is available about the seasonal distribution of the precipitation.     

天山北坡降水对河流水沙情势影响

以天山北坡头屯河流域为例，在对山区不同海拔的降水特征、侵蚀产沙情势以及河流水沙运移特点分析的基础上，详尽就山区降水对河流水沙情势的年际变化、年内变化以及月变化的影响进行了分析研究，并就降水对不同海拔的河流水沙情势的影响强度及相互关系作了探讨．     

浅层地下水氟的溶解／沉淀作用的定量研究

以河北邢台山前平原浅层高氟地下水为例，根据氟的化学热力学分析，确定了控制浅层地下水中氟迁移和富集的固相沉淀物，以及不同化学类型的浅层地下水中含氟固相沉淀物的溶解／沉淀条件；利用浅层地下水化学平衡反应模型和ＰＨＲＥＥＱＥ软件，确定了氟化的稳定区域，计算了氟化钙的饱和指数．研究结果表明，在浅层高氟地下水的整个形成过程中，都表现为氟由固相转入水相的趋势，有利于氟的迁移和富集     

Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.     

Thermodynamic Modelling of Ore-Forming Mechanism of the Changkeng Gold-Silver Deposits in Guangdong Province

The Changkeng gold-silver deposits consist of a sediment-hosted, disseminated gold deposit and a replacement-type silver deposit. The mineralizations of gold and silver are zoned and closely related to the silicification of carbonate and clastic rocks, so that siliceous ores dominate in the deposit. The mineralizing temperature ranges mainly from 300 to 170℃, and K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, and Cl- are the major ions in the ore-forming fluid. Calculations of distribution of metal complexes show that gold is mainly transported by hydrosulphide complexes, but chloride complexes of silver, iron, lead, and zinc, which are transformed into hydroxyl and hydrosulphide complexes under neutral to weak-alkaline circumstances in the late stage, predominate in the ore-forming solutions. Water-rock interaction is confirmed to be the effective mechanism for the formation of silver ores by computer modelling of reaction of hydrothermal solution with carbonate rocks. The solubility analyses demonstrate that the precipitation     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

山东省气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响

利用全省 2 7个台站 1 96 1～ 1 998年的温度、降水、日照等基本气象要素资料 ,对山东省气候变化特点进行了分析 ,并对冬小麦生产潜力进行了计算、分析。结果表明 ,山东省年、季平均气温呈波动性增暖趋势 ,降水量呈减少趋势。气候变暖有利于生产潜力的提高 ,冬小麦气候生产潜力总的变化趋势是波动性的上升 ,但较光温生产潜力倾向率小 ,反映了小麦生育期内光、温、水的综合影响。     

星载被动微波遥感反演降水算法回顾

根据不同的降水反演方法对多种利用SSM／I、TMI反演降水的算法进行归类总结，按下垫面检测和降水反演算法两大步骤进行简要描述，并分经验法、半经验(半物理)法、物理模式法及物理廓线法4类方法对多种算法作了回顾。     

TRMM卫星微波成像仪分级产品及其反演降水算法

文章叙述了获取定量降水信息的意义，简要介绍了对热带测雨卫星TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission)的仪器、美国国家宇航局提供的微波成像仪TMI(TRMM Microwave Imager)分级产品。对比了物理方法和经验方法反演降水的特点，并对一些经验方法以及倾斜对流系统对反演降水的影响、动态聚类分析、神经网络反演方法的研究成果进行了介绍。     

天津盛夏降水趋势与初夏华北高压的统计分析

根据初夏(6月)的天气气候演变，预测盛夏(7～8月)的短期气候趋势，一直是急需解决的难题。文章揭示了自1958年以来天津盛夏降水趋势与初夏时节临近地区上空的环流特征之间的统计关系。结果表明，初夏华北高压强时盛夏天津降水偏少，反之盛夏天津降水偏多，不仅逐年的对应关系显著，而且变化趋势相反，转折时期也一致。初步解释了20世纪70年代以前天津(华北)盛夏多雨和80年代至今天津(华北)少雨的物理原因。以此为主要根据建立了初夏对于盛夏天津降水的短期气候预测方法，1998～2003年连续6年预报正确。