Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

敦密断裂带白垩纪两期重要的变形事件

本文报道了敦密断裂带糜棱岩中黑云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar定年结果和大规模走滑-逆冲断裂的几何学、运动学特征及其形成时代,以便揭示断裂带两期变形事件的构造属性。黑龙江省密山市花岗质糜棱岩中黑云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar加权平均年龄为132.2±1.2Ma,它是敦密断裂带经历伸展事件的冷却年龄,也是东北亚大陆边缘在早白垩世Hauterivian期-Albian期发生强烈区域伸展作用的产物。密山市至辽宁省清原县系列大型走滑-逆冲断层和断层相关褶皱揭示出在晚白垩世晚期-末期发生右旋走滑-逆冲事件,该事件规模大,影响范围广,导致整个断裂带遭受到强烈改造,形成对冲式断裂系统。将研究区走滑-逆冲断裂与山东省郯庐断裂带中段挤压构造对比,认为郯庐断裂带北段和中段在晚白垩世末期都发生了强烈的走滑-逆冲事件,它们具有相同的构造特征和构造属性。     

贵州省不同强度区域性凝冻过程环流形势对比分析

利用贵州省84个气象站逐日观测资料以及再分析资料,对4种不同强度区域性凝冻过程进行对比分析。结果表明：500 hPa位势高度场上中高纬度的亚洲东部区域距平场呈现“+-”的分布或有切断低压分布,贝加尔湖至中国华北地区以经向环流为主;850 hPa风场上云南南部以南受偏南风和西南风控制,并且在江南至华南存在西南或西风急流,是4种不同强度凝冻过程中形势场共性特征。500 hPa高度场上中高纬度地区呈两槽一脊或一槽一脊分布;风场上850 hPa东北风回流和700 hPa西南急流形成上暖下冷的形势场,同时850 hPa形成稳定低层切变线;温度场上存在冷-暖-冷的夹心结构,近地面层0 ℃线维持在900 hPa以下,均是较强等级以上的区域性凝冻过程中形势场共性特征。而对于一般性区域性凝冻过程,500 hPa位势高度场上呈多槽脊分布,风场上是否存在东北风回流和低层切变线,温度场上是否存在冷-暖-冷的夹心结构以及近地面层0 ℃线位置等特征均不统一。温度剖面图上,当近地面层0 ℃线位置最低时或出现冷-暖-冷的夹心结构时段与凝冻过程影响范围最广、灾情最重的时间段对应。     

2023年全球重大天气气候事件

2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。     

GEOLOGICAL EVENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY OF THE LATEST PALEOCENE TO EARLIEST EOCENE IN TINGRI, SOUTHERN TIBET

GEOLOGICAL EVENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY OF THE LATEST PALEOCENE TO EARLIEST EOCENE IN TINGRI, SOUTHERN TIBET1　DickensGR ,CastilloMM ,WalkerJCG .AblastofgasinthelatestPaleocene :Simulatingfirst ordereffectsofmassivedissociationofoceanicmethanehydrate[J].Geology ,1997,2 5 (3) :2 5 9～ 2 6 2 . 2　GibsonTG ,BybellLM .Paleocene/EoceneboundarystrataandeventsintheU .S .AtlanticCoastalPlains[J].JournalofVertebratePaleontology ,1993,13(3suppl.) :37. …     

泥盆系弗拉阶/法门阶之交事件沉积和海平面变化

在华南板块南部被动大陆边缘和西伯利亚板块南部活动大陆边缘弗拉阶/法门阶之交识别出7种物理事件相: 细粒钙屑浊积岩相、钙质角砾岩相、软变形灰岩相、含微球粒的粒泥灰岩相、凝灰质砾岩相、黑色页岩相和火山喷溢相.它们在法门阶下Palmatolepis triangularis带底部和/或上Palmatolepis rhenana带底部具有广泛的分布, 可能是两次陨击事件记录, 是良好的高分辨率年代地层对比标志.弗拉期/法门期之交的海平面变化不具有同步性和一致性, 可分辨出2种型式(阶跃型和渐进型) 和5种状态(弗拉期最末期下降→法门期最初期上升、弗拉期最末期上升→法门期最初期下降、弗拉期最末期上升→法门期最初期上升、弗拉期最末期下降→法门期最初期下降、弗拉期最末期与法门期最初期海平面变化不明显).弗拉阶/法门阶之交生物的阶梯状绝灭可能与从上Palmatolepis rhenana带底部至Palmatolepis crepida带不均匀分布的6次陨击事件密切相关.      

全球旋回地层学

全球旋回地层学是指在对全球沉积岩进行综合系统研究之基础上，通过估算沉积盆地中源于物源区的沉积物类型和沉积环境条件变化，来预测地层学特征的一种过程一结果模型。其研究内容包括对全球地质演化时期全球海平面变化、全球气候条件、全球构造运动、全球古地理背景、全球沉积环境特征、全球古生物事件及全球矿产形成过程进行动态模拟，强调古气候在地质记录中的意义，注重沉积记录的全球同时性研究；强调各种事件在沉积作用中的意