南昌市降水概率预报方法研究(一)

主要介绍了降水概率预报的事件概率回归方法,1997年试用表明这种方法有一定的参考价值。     

Two‐dimensional physically based finite element runoff model for small agricultural watersheds: I. Model development

Soil erosion by water is the root cause of ecological degradation in the Shiwalik foothills of Northern India. Simulation of runoff and its component processes is a pre‐requisite to develop the management strategies to tackle the problem, successfully. A two‐dimensional physically based distributed numerical model, ROMO2D has been developed to simulate runoff from small agricultural watersheds on an event basis. The model employs the 2‐D Richards equation with sink term to simulate infiltration and soil moisture dynamics in the vadoze zone under variable rainfall conditions, and 2‐D Saint‐Venant equations under the kinematic wave approximation along with Manning's equation as the stage‐discharge equation for runoff routing. The various flow‐governing equations have been solved numerically by employing a Galerkin finite element method for spatial discretization using quadrilateral elements and finite difference techniques for temporal solutions. The ROMO2D computer program has been developed as a class‐based program, coded in C + + in such a way that with minor modifications, the model can be used to simulate runoff on a continuous basis. The model writes output for a runoff hydrograph of each storm. Model development is described in this paper and the results of model testing and field application are to be presented in a subsequent paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thermodynamics of rare events and impulsive relaxation events in the magnetospheric substorm dynamics

The magnetosphere dynamics shows fast relaxation events following power-law distribution for many observable quantities during magnetic substorms. The emergence of such power-law distributions has been widely discussed in the framework of self-organized criticality and/or turbulence. Here, a different approach to the statistical features of these impulsive dynamical events is proposed in the framework of the thermodynamics of rare events [Lavenda, B.H., Florio, A., 1992. Thermodynamics of rare events, Int. J. Theor. Phys. 31, 1455–1475; Lavenda, B.H., 1995. Thermodynamics of Extremes. Albion]. In detail, an application of such a novel approach to the magnetospheric substorm avalanching dynamics as monitored by the auroral electroject index is discussed.     

2009-2013年普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量的年际变化及其与全球气候事件的关系

利用中国南极科学考察期间获得的颗粒物样品,对南大洋普里兹湾海域水体中生物硅的含量分布及年际变化情况进行了分析。研究结果显示:在2013年夏季普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量在0.38—8.62μmol/dm3之间变化,平均为1.55±1.86μmol/dm3。生物硅在67°S以南湾内区域表层水体中的含量明显高于67°S以北的湾外区域,最大值出现在普里兹湾陆架区,生物因子是表层水体生物硅含量分布的主控因子。根据不同年份即25、26、27、28、29次南极科学考察期间获取的数据研究显示,普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量存在明显的年际差异。历史数据分析结果表明,气候事件对普里兹湾海冰变化有明显的影响,因而对相应年份该海域浮游植物数量和种群结构也会产生一定的影响,从而导致表层水体中生物硅含量的年际差异。     

2013年7月1日河北宁晋极端短时强降水成因研究

2013年7月1日午后至夜间,华北出现一次区域性暴雨和局地大暴雨过程。局地极端降水出现在河北省邢台市宁晋县四芝兰镇,过程雨量409 mm,其中当日17—19时连续2 h雨量超过100 mm。利用常规高空和地面观测资料、NCEP再分析资料和石家庄新一代天气雷达资料,探讨了宁晋极端短时强降水的形成原因。主要结论是:(1)低槽、冷锋、副热带高压及其外围低涡切变线为其主要影响系统,海南附近台风远距离影响加强了水汽自南向北的输送,半定常的地面辐合切变线对新生对流的触发和已有对流的维持及加强起到重要作用;(2)宁晋最强降水期间,其上空具有较强的垂直风切变,有利于高度组织化的对流系统发展;(3)对流系统的后向传播使回波主体移动缓慢、持续时间长,而回波强度大和雨强很强,则导致四芝兰镇极端强降水,此外,具有弱中气旋的超级单体相对较长时间的影响使其对四芝兰镇强降水具有重要贡献;(4)产生极端降水的对流系统属于高质心发展强烈的大陆强对流型,而非更易导致强降水的低质心系统。同时,针对众多学者研究北京"7.21"特大暴雨得到的一些结论进行了进一步探讨和验证。     

Classification of Complex Reservoirs in Superimposed Basins of Western China

<正>Many of the sedimentary basins in western China were formed through the superposition and compounding of at least two previously developed sedimentary basins and in general they can be termed as complex superimposed basins.The distinct differences between these basins and monotype basins are their discontinuous stratigraphic sedimentation,stratigraphic structure and stratigraphic stress-strain action over geological history.Based on the correlation of chronological age on structural sections,superimposed basins can be divided into five types in this study:(1) continuous sedimentation type superimposed basins,(2) middle and late stratigraphic superimposed basins,(3) early and late stratigraphic superimposed basins,(4) early and middle stratigraphic superimposed basins,and(5) long-term exposed superimposed basins.Multiple source-reservoir-caprock assemblages have developed in such basins.In addition,multi-stage hydrocarbon generation and expulsion,multiple sources,polycyclic hydrocarbon accumulation and multiple-type hydrocarbon reservoirs adjustment,reformation and destruction have occurred in these basins.The complex reservoirs that have been discovered widely in the superimposed basins to date have remarkably different geologic features from primary reservoirs,and the root causes of this are folding,denudation and the fracture effect caused by multiphase tectonic events in the superimposed basins as well as associated seepage,diffusion,spilling,oxidation,degradation and cracking.Based on their genesis characteristics,complex reservoirs are divided into five categories:(1) primary reservoirs,(2) trap adjustment type reservoirs,(3) component variant reservoirs,(4) phase conversion type reservoirs and (5) scale-reformed reservoirs.     

Middle and late Cenomanian oceanic anoxic events in shallow and deeper shelf environments of western Morocco

The response of shallow‐water sequences to oceanic anoxic event 2 and mid‐Cenomanian events 1a and 1b was investigated along the west African margin of Morocco north of Agadir (Azazoul) and correlated with the deep‐water sequence of the Tarfaya Basin (Mohammed Beach) based on biostratigraphy, mineralogy, phosphorus and stable isotopes. In the deeper Mohammed Beach section results show double peaks in δ¹³C_org for mid‐Cenomanian events 1a and 1b (Rotalipora reicheli biozone, lower CC10a biozone), the characteristic oceanic anoxic event 2 δ¹³C excursion (Rotalipora cushmani extinction, top of CC10a biozone) and laminated (anoxic) black shale. In the shallow environment north of Agadir, a fluctuating sea‐level associated with dysoxic, brackish and mesotrophic conditions prevailed during the middle to late Cenomanian, as indicated by oyster biostromes, nannofossils, planktonic and benthonic foraminiferal assemblages. Anoxic conditions characteristic of oceanic anoxic event 2 (for example, laminated black shales) did not reach into shallow‐water environments until the maximum transgression of the early Turonian. Climate conditions decoupled along the western margin of Morocco between mid‐Cenomanian event 1b and the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary, as also observed in eastern Tethys. North of Agadir alternating humid and dry seasonal conditions prevailed, whereas in the Tarfaya Basin the climate was dry and seasonal. This climatic decoupling can be attributed to variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in the intensity of the north‐east trade winds in tropical areas.     

关于南天山碰撞造山时代的讨论

南天山是天山山脉的一支,是中亚型造山带的典型代表,它经历了复杂的增生—碰撞过程。关于古南天山洋最终闭合—碰撞造山(碰撞事件)发生的时间一直存在不同的认识,争论由来已久。综合分析南天山造山带的构造、地层、古生物、岩石、地球化学和同位素年代学等方面的资料,特别是对放射虫、蛇绿岩、蓝片岩、火山弧及前陆盆地沉积等地质事实的研究,我们认为,南天山碰撞造山作用起始于二叠纪末—三叠纪初。     

西秦岭略阳地区鱼洞子杂岩变形花岗岩锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb测年及地质意义

鱼洞子杂岩是秦岭地区最古老的复杂的地质体。前人对鱼洞子杂岩不同的地质体采用多种方法进行了年龄测定,但结果差异较大,且总体测试精度不高。依据锆石CL影像的特征,结合锆石成因分析和锆石微区的U-Pb同位素,进行了LA-ICP-MS测定,在鱼洞子杂岩糜棱岩化细粒黑云母花岗岩和强片理化黑云母花岗岩中分别获得2661Ma±17Ma和2703Ma±26Ma的岩浆结晶年龄,同时在糜棱岩化细粒黑云母花岗岩中获得2647Ma±65Ma的变质锆石年龄。其中2703Ma±26Ma是秦岭造山带目前发现的最古老的侵入岩的形成年龄,为研究秦岭造山带早前寒武纪构造岩浆事件和地球早期的形成演化提供了新的资料。     

事件驱动的省级应急资源管理模式研究

随着信息化技术的广泛应用和应急资源信息共享的迫切要求,如何更好地利用信息技术助力应急资源管理成为研究的热点。针对我国省级应急资源管理的现状和存在的问题,从省级应急资源整合共享、协调联动的角度出发,引入事件驱动理论,以突发事件为驱动点,开展省级应急资源管理模式的研究,提出一种新的适合于省级政府应急管理的基于事件驱动机制的应急资源管理架构(EDERMA),分析此架构的构成、功能以及工作机理,并探讨了基于此架构的系统应用实现。