CTD海上剖面测量性能综合评定方法研究

随着国产温盐深剖面仪（Conductivity-Temperature-Depth profiler,CTD） 测量性能的不断提高,其使用范围和规模也逐步扩大,需要规范CTD 海上剖面测量性能评定方法。在威海附近海域开展基于锚泊式平台CTD 海上比对试验,通过改变同架比对CTD 数量、引入相关系数和平均差数据处理方法研究海上比对试验效果,提出以精准度和灵敏度为目标层的CTD 海上剖面测量性能评价指标体系,实现了对被测CTD 海上剖面测量性能相对全面的评价,准确量化了被测CTD 在实际海洋环境中的剖面测量性能,为国产CTD 海上剖面测量性能的优化提供依据。     

Identification of factors influencing hydrologic model performance using a top-down approach in a large number of U.S. catchments

Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales.     

基于BIM的建筑地震受损程度评估模型设计

由于在变形和累积耗能的建筑地震受损程度评估模型,是将建筑划分为五个状态水平,未研究建筑环境性能,评估结果误差较大。因此设计基于BIM的建筑地震受损程度评估模型,采用基于BIM的建筑环境研究与评估方法,考虑建筑环境性能,基于这个思路,依据混凝土单轴Mazars损伤模型,获取三轴状态中的损伤演化方程,得到应变大于损伤阈值时损伤演化方程增量形式,构建混凝土损伤评估模型。经实验证明,所设计模型在地震峰值加速度小于0.31g时,建筑结构大致无缺,在峰值加速度是0.61g时,建筑地震受损指数超过0.8,建筑倒塌;所设计模型评估的平均误差低于0.03,平均评估时间是2.86 s,说明所设计模型能够有效评估建筑地震受损程度,且精度和效率较高。     

基于非确定性分析法的顺层边坡抗震性研究

顺层岩质边坡的抗震性指标大部分都是非确定的,无法用固定阈值衡量。提出基于非确定性分析法的顺层边坡抗震性性能研究,将顺层岩质边坡看作若干个叠加的薄板;运用非确定性分析法计算各个薄板的动力安全系数和动力极限状态方程,并对顺层边坡动力极限状态方程进行求解,可得在地震作用力下顺层边坡动力可靠度指标与顺层边坡失效概率之间的关系;评估地震作用力下顺层边坡整体稳定性,同时综合考量顺岩边坡的最小平均安全系数以及平均失效概率,得出评估结果。实验结果显示,在地震作用力下,顺层边坡坡高、坡角、岩层倾角对顺岩边坡抗震性能影响显著,评估结果与实际结果一致。     

建设韧性城乡的技术途径

中国地震多发、灾害严重,迫切需要提升抗震能力,实现韧性城乡的建设。本文围绕建设韧性城乡的技术途径,梳理了工程抗震技术发展的历史沿革,阐述了韧性城乡的提出背景。基于震害类比、实验验证和理论分析,总结提炼工程结构抗震能力“散”、“脆、”偏、“单”评估法,指出应以“整而不散”、“延而不脆”、“匀而不偏”、“冗而不单”的传统抗震技术及隔震与消能减震新技术作为实现韧性城乡的技术途径。     

渤东凹陷东营组烃源岩评价

渤东凹陷是渤海海域下一步油气勘探的重点地区之一。本文通过对渤东凹陷单井烃源岩的有机地球化学分析和与渤中凹陷烃源岩的对比研究,结合渤东凹陷盆地模拟成果,得出以下认识：渤东凹陷南部东营组半深湖深湖相泥岩的有机质丰度高,有机质类型好,有机质演化已处于成熟阶段,因而东营组暗色泥岩具有较高的生烃潜力,是一套良好的烃源岩层。     

锡林郭勒盟地区级生态与农业气象监测评估服务系统

根据生态与农业气象业务需求,以气象通信网络为依托,采用Client/Server(C/S)体系结构,对生态与农业气象实时监测数据实现快速传输、有效存储和查询分析,及时将资料应用于生态与农业气象评估业务,为地方政府及有关生产部门提供农业气象决策服务.客户端运行县级生态与农业气象监测服务系统,负责信息监测、采集、传输;服务器端运行地区级的生态与农业气象评估服务系统,负责数据存储管理、综合分析、业务服务和产品制作等任务.     

基于GIS的海口海岸带空间功能分区研究

随着沿海地区经济的快速发展,海岸带空间资源的利用将呈现多样化的特征。海岸带空间功能分区可以优化海岸带空间资源配置,统筹协调海岸带空间开发与保护格局,是海岸带资源可持续利用的重要基础。文章针对海岸带空间的特殊性,构建指标体系,对海口海岸带进行模糊综合评价,探讨海口海岸带空间适宜功能类型,并基于GIS 技术进行功能分区。结果表明：海口海岸带主要功能空间类型为旅游娱乐空间、城镇建设空间、农林渔牧空间和生态保护空间,其面积占比分别为16.84%、21.18%、22.54%、35.77%。其中生态保护空间面积最大,主要分布在海口市东部片区的东寨港。     

基于突变理论的太湖蓝藻水华危险性分区评价

蓝藻水华暴发是湖泊生态系统中营养物质长期累积的结果,是系统营养经长期演化后的极端状态.突变理论评价方法无需确定指标权重,减少了人为主观因素,并且计算方便.本文基于突变理论,采取蓝藻水华暴发的表征因子(叶绿素浓度)和导致蓝藻水华暴发的环境因子(总氮和总磷)作为潜在危险性评价指标,蓝藻水华的面积、范围以及暴发频次作为历史危险性评价指标建立多准则蓝藻水华暴发风险评价指标体系,并结合太湖九个分区进行蓝藻水华暴发危险性分区及全湖评价.研究结果表明:竺山湖和西部沿岸为极重危险性湖区;梅梁湾为重度危险性湖区;南部沿岸、贡湖和大太湖为中度危险性湖区;箭湖东茭咀、东太湖和胥湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性较小,为轻微危险性湖区.整体上看,太湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性程度由轻到重基本上沿东南-西北方向变化,与营养盐浓度由低到高分布趋势相一致.根据评价结果,可以明确太湖各区遭遇蓝藻水华暴发危险性的大小,为蓝藻水华风险管理和应急处理提供科学依据.     

Analysis and comparison of heat flux of landfast ice during 2016 in the Prydz Bay,Antarctica

Long term in situ atmospheric observation of the landfast ice nearby Zhongshan Station in the Prydz Bay was performed from April to November 2016. The in situ observation, including the conventional meteorological elements and turbulent flux, enabled this study to evaluate the sea ice surface energy budget process. Using in situ observations, three different reanalysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-analysis(ERA-Interim), National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis2(NCEP R2), and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis(JRA55), and the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE, output for surface fluxes were evaluated. The observed sensible heat flux(SH) and net longwave radiation showed seasonal variation with increasing temperature. Air temperature rose from the middle of October as the solar elevation angle increased.The ice surface lost more energy by outgoing longwave radiation as temperature increased, while the shortwave radiation showed obvious increases from the middle of October. The oceanic heat flux demonstrated seasonal variation and decreased with time, where the average values were 21 W/m~2 and 11 W/m~2, before and after August,respectively. The comparisons with in situ observations show that, SH and LE(latent heat flux) of JRA55 dataset had the smallest bias and mean absolute error(MAE), and those of NCEP R2 data show the largest differences.The ERA-Interim dataset had the highest spatial resolution, but performance was modest with bias and MAE between JRA55 and NCEP R2 compare with in situ observation. The CICE results(SH and LE) were consistent with the observed data but did not demonstrate the amplitude of inner seasonal variation. The comparison revealed better shortwave and longwave radiation stimulation based on the ERA-Interim forcing in CICE than the radiation of ERA-Interim. The average sea ice temperature decreased in June and July and increased after September,which was similar to the temperature measured by buoys, with a bias and MAE of 0.9°C and 1.0°C, respectively.