2019年4月广州白云机场持续暴雨前对流层顶和平流层异常信号分析

利用欧洲中心ERA5再分析资料和广州白云机场自动观测系统降水资料,分析2019年4月白云机场持续暴雨前对流层顶和平流层的信号特征。分析发现,2019年4月中下旬,广州白云机场出现了3次持续时间长、降水量大的持续性暴雨过程,降水较往年同期显著偏多。研究结果表明,3次持续暴雨发生前,对流层顶高度出现了下降,平流层高位涡冷空气入侵,机场上空位涡升高;在环流场中,中低纬地区对流层顶和平流层东风偏强,向北和向下传播,广州白云机场终端区在暴雨发生前西风持续下传;广州白云机场上空暴雨发生前对流层顶至平流层位势高度正异常。暴雨发生前,平流层冷空气高位涡移入、对流层顶下降、西风的下传均有利于持续性暴雨的生成。     

2020年6月贵州连续性暴雨成因分析

2020年6月贵州出现4次具有明显夜雨特征的连续性暴雨天气过程,以短时强降水为主,强度大,局地性较强。该文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,详细分析高空形势、东亚西风急流、低空水汽条件和动力条件以及海温特征,并采用西伯利亚高压强度指数分析冷空气强度,结合贵州区域自动站降水观测资料,分析暴雨成因,结果表明：2020年6月欧亚大陆上空呈现正—负—正的波型分布,有利于高纬地区高空槽引导冷空气南下;副热带高压位置较常年同期偏北偏西且稳定维持,有利于水汽输送到贵州;东亚西风急流强度较强,其西段位置较常年同期略偏南,贵州位于急流轴右侧且处于水汽辐合区、垂直速度负值区,动力条件和水汽条件的有效配合,有利于贵州暴雨天气发生;贵州暴雨对西伯利亚高压强度指数具有较好的响应,但暴雨发生时间比西伯利亚高压强度指数滞后1 d;赤道西太平洋地区海温表现为偏暖,赤道东太平洋地区海温表现为偏冷,且印度洋呈现出西正东负的偶极子型海温异常,此类海温配置,有利于激发印度洋和西太平洋的反气旋环流,为水汽输送到贵州上空创造了有利条件。     

A coupled two‐phase fluid flow and elastoplastic deformation model for unsaturated soils: theory,implementation, and application

Although numerous numerical models have been proposed for simulating the coupled hydromechanical behaviors in unsaturated soils, few studies satisfactorily reproduced the soil–water–air three‐phase coupling processes. Particularly, the impacts of deformation dependence of water retention curve, bonding stress, and gas flow on the coupled processes were less examined within a coupled soil–water–air model. Based on our newly developed constitutive models (Hu et al., 2013, 2014, 2015) in which the soil–water–air couplings have been appropriately captured, this study develops a computer code named F²Mus3D to investigate the coupled processes with a focus on the above impacts. In the numerical implementation, the generalized‐α time integration scheme was adopted to solve the equations, and a return‐mapping implicit stress integration scheme was used to update the state variables. The numerical model was verified by two well‐designed laboratory tests and was applied for modeling the coupled elastoplastic deformation and two‐phase fluid flow processes in a homogenous soil slope induced by rainfall infiltration. The simulation results demonstrated that the numerical model well reproduces the initiation of a sheared zone at the toe of the slope and its propagation toward the crest as the rain infiltration proceeds, which manifests a typical mechanism for rainfall‐induced shallow landslides. The simulated plastic strain and deformation would be remarkably underestimated when the bonding stress and/or the deformation‐dependent nature of hydraulic properties are ignored in the coupled model. But on the contrary, the negligence of gas flow in the slope soil results in an overestimation of the rainfall‐induced deformation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground truthed performance of single‐and dual‐polarized radar rain rates at large ranges

Radar accuracy in estimating qualitative precipitation estimation at distances larger than 120 km degrades rapidly because of increased volume coverage and beam height. The performance of the recently upgraded dual‐polarized technology to the NEXRAD network and its capabilities are in need of further examination, as improved rainfall estimates at large distances would allow for significant hydrological modelling improvements. Parameter based methods were applied to radars from St. Louis (KLSX) and Kansas City (KEAX), Missouri, USA, to test the precision and accuracy of both dual‐ and single‐polarized parameter estimations of precipitation at large distances. Hourly aggregated precipitation data from terrestrial‐based tipping buckets provided ground‐truthed reference data. For all KLSX data tested, an R(Z,ZDR) algorithm provided the smallest absolute error (3.7 mm h^?1) and root‐mean‐square‐error (45%) values. For most KEAX data, R(ZDR,KDP) and R(KDP) algorithms performed best, with RMSE values of 37%. With approximately 100 h of precipitation data between April and October of 2014, nearly 800 and 400 mm of precipitation were estimated by radar precipitation algorithms but was not observed by terrestrial‐based precipitation gauges for KLSX and KEAX, respectively. Additionally, nearly 30 and 190 mm of measured precipitation observed by gauges were not detected by the radar rainfall estimates from KLSX and KEAX, respectively. Results improve understanding of radar based precipitation estimates from long ranges thereby advancing applications for hydrometeorological modelling and flood forecasting. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

T42模式产品在南昌地区大—暴雨中的统计学解释应用

使用1990—1991年5—6月的T_(42)模式产品,采用样本正态化消空剔除手段,分别建立了中雨、大雨的消空方程y_1、y_2及大-暴雨判别方程y_3。y_1、y_2减少空报,y_3减少漏报。3个方程配套使用比用单个方程的效果好,成功界限指数有明显的提高,1992年试用效果较好。     

Natural and anthropogenic budgets of a small watershed in the massif central (France): Chemical and strontium isotopic characterization of water and sediments

A small watershed (160 km²) located in the Massif Central (France) has been chemically, isotopically and hydrologically studied through its dissolved load, bed sediments and soils. This watershed is underlain by basaltic bedrock and associated soils in which the vegetation is dominated mainly by meadows.Dissolved concentrations of major ions (Cl, SO₄, NO₃, HCO₃, Ca, Na, Mg, K, Al and Si), trace elements (Rb and Sr) and strontium isotopes have been determined for two different hydrologic periods on the main stream of the Allanche river and its tributaries.The major objectives of this study were to characterize the chemical and isotopic signatures of each reservoir occurring in the watershed. Changes in chemical and isotopic signatures are interpreted in terms of fluctuations of the different components inputs: rainwater, weathering products, anthropogenic addition.Water quality may be influenced by natural inputs (rainwater, weathering processes) and anthropogenic additions (fertilizers, road salts, etc.). Precipitation serves as a major vehicle for dissolved chemical species in addition to the hydrosystem and, in order to constrain rain inputs, a systematic study of rainwaters is carried out over a one year period using an automatic collector. Corrections of rainwater addition using chloride as an atmospheric input reference were computed for selected elements and the Sr/Sr ratio. After such corrections, the geochemical budget of the watershed was determined and the role of anthropogenic additions evaluated through the relationship between strontium isotopes and major and trace element ratios. Thus, 10% of Ca and Na originate in rainwater input, 40 to 80% in fertilizer additions and 15 to 50% in rock weatheringThe cationic denudation rates for this watershed are around 0.3 g s^–1 km² during low water discharge and 0.6 g s^–1 km² in high water stage. This led to a chemical denudation rate of 5.3 mm/1000 years.For solid matter, the normalization of chemical species relative to parent rocks shows the depletion or enrichment in soils and sediments. The use of K and Ca as mobile reference illustrates the weathering state of soils and sediments relative to parent rocks. This weathering state for bed sediments range from 15 to 45% for the K normalization and from 2 to 50% for the Ca normalization. For the soils, the weathering state ranges from 15 to 57% for the K normalization and from 17 to 90% for the Ca normalization.     

9711号台风及伴生暴雨的卫星云图特征

711号台风是近年来影响我国的一个强度和范围最大的台风。台风登陆时,正值天文大潮期,因而引起风暴潮,使得浙江、上海、江苏等沿海海堤坝损坏严重。台风登陆后,台风中心途经5个省,致使七省一市出现暴雨,山东及辽宁两省出现区域性大暴雨天气。直接经济损失达250亿元。本文按卫星云图上显示的9711号台风云系演变特征,将9711号台风活动过程分为四个阶段,即发展加强阶段、登陆阶段、台风外围云系与北方冷锋云系合并阶段及台风云系向温带气旋云系演变阶段。最后讨论了台风暴雨的时空分布与不同阶段台风云系的关系。     

Simple two-dimensional kinematic framework designed to test warm rain microphysical models

This paper describes a two-dimensional kinematic framework designed to test warm rain microphysical models. The idealized flow field is based on a case study from the Hawaiian Rainband Project (1990). Analyses of radar and aircraft data collected in convective cells embedded in Hawaiian rainbands are included for model validation. A Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) activation spectrum, a condensational growth equation including the CCN chemical composition, collection efficiencies, and terminal velocities of the growing drops, are all provided. A sample set of figures from the test run with bulk microphysical parameterization illustrates the desired format for comparisons between the detailed model results and for validation of the model output with observations. This simple yet realistic test formulation includes vertical and horizontal advection, and can be used to evaluate microphysical model performance without complexities resulting from dynamical–microphysical interactions in dynamic cloud models. Without such interactions, scientists can focus on key physical processes involved in the formation of warm rain. The accurate representation of these processes in detailed models is essential to successfully simulate the observed evolution of warm precipitating clouds.     

中国夏季雨带类型的影响因子分布及预报研究

应用方差分析的方法,利用１９５１～１９９５年前期（１～４月）北半球５００ｈＰａ、１０００ｈＰａ高度场,１０００～５００ｈＰａ厚度场,及太平洋海温场的资料,研究了对中国夏季（６～８月）雨带类型变化影响较大的大气环流场、厚度场和海温场的区域分布,并在此基础上利用逐步判别的方法建立了中国夏季雨带类型的判别方程,探讨了入选因子的物理意义．     

1995年6月梅雨期暴雨的水汽图像分析

文章利用GMS-5水汽图像及常规资料,分析1995年6月中旬至7月初梅雨期暴雨的水汽图像特征,指出水汽羽与强降水的关系,并概括出梅雨期暴雨的水汽图像概念模型。