广东“18.8”季风槽极端降水事件对流尺度集合预报分析

受季风槽影响,2018年8月30—31日华南地区出现一次极端暴雨过程,单日站点累计降水量达1?056.7 mm,刷新了广东有历史纪录以来新的极值。对于此次极端降水事件,常用的业务模式包括欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式（ECMWF）、日本气象厅谱模式（JMA）和中国气象局广东快速更新同化数值预报系统（CMA-GD）,都低估了降水强度。利用深圳市气象局业务对流尺度集合预报系统分析了此次特大暴雨过程,结果表明：对流尺度集合预报系统对本次特大暴雨过程具有比较好的预报能力,概率匹配平均最大雨量达348.7 mm·(24 h)-1,集合平均的强降水中心和观测基本一致,观测极值附近区域发生大暴雨（≥150 mm）概率最大值达到80%。选取了较“好”和较“差”集合成员预报进行对比分析,发现较“好”成员预报的强降水中心位置和观测基本一致,而较“差”成员预报的降水中心位置则偏向福建地区。较 “好”成员预报出莲花山南侧地面中尺度辐合线较长时间的维持和缓慢移动,导致强降水雨团在莲花山脉附近不断地触发和维持,同时地形的阻挡作用使得对流系统在地形附近区域持续维持,造成了罕见的特大暴雨;而较“差”成员辐合区位于莲花山以北,对流形成后向东、向北移动,最终导致强降水预报位置偏向福建地区。     

引水灌区黄土地质灾害成因机制与防控技术 ——以黄河三峡库区甘肃黑方台移民灌区为例

黄土是具有水敏性的特殊类土,遇水后性质发生明显变化,甚至引发地质灾害.甘肃黑方台地区由于引水灌溉引发的滑坡和黄土湿陷等灾害十分严重,也很典型,已成为地质灾害研究和工程实践的热点地区之一.针对引水灌区黄土地质灾害成因机制研究与防控技术中存在的问题,以黑方台地区为例,从灌溉水入渗引起的地下水动力场与黄土工程地质性质响应及其诱发的黄土滑坡和黄土湿陷灾害等方面开展了国际合作研究.研究表明,40余年引水灌溉导致台塬中心部位地下水位上升了20m,升幅为0.476m/a,导致滑坡灾害频发,平均每年发生3～4次,引起黄土湿陷总量达5.9m,非饱和黄土和湿陷系数小于0.015的黄土所引起的湿陷量达到2.16m,对黄土湿陷性研究提出新的挑战.灌区地质灾害风险防控的关键是改变灌溉模式,减少地下水补给,实施排水工程,有效地降低斜坡地带的地下水位.     

Forward simulation and sensitivity analysis of run-out scenarios using MassMov2D at the Trafoi rockslide (South Tyrol,Italy)

This paper presents forward simulation with MassMov2D code and sensitivity analysis of run out resulting from different scenarios of potential failure of a 40 million m³ active rockslide hanging above the village of Trafoi, in South Tyrol (Italy). Five scenarios of potential failure zones were identified, with the larger one being the failure of the entire rock slide. Forward simulations showed that the consequences for the Trafoi village would be potentially destructive. A parametric sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to increase the significance of risk assessment. Results obtained by varying friction and turbulent coefficients showed quite unequivocally that although the variability of the run out might be quite large it does not change risk scenarios significantly except in the smaller case of failure. This confirms the usefulness of forward simulations even if they might be affected by uncertainties related to the impossibility to retrieve optimised parameters.     

Predicted ultimate capacity of laterally loaded piles in clay using support vector machine

The determination of ultimate capacity of laterally loaded pile in clay is a key parameter for designing the laterally loaded pile. The available methods for determination of ultimate resistance of pile in clay are not reliable. This study investigates the potential of a support vector machine (SVM)-based approach to predict the ultimate capacity of laterally loaded pile in clay. The SVM, which is firmly based on statistical learning theory, uses a regression technique by introducing an ?-insensitive loss function. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to determine the relative importance of the factors affecting ultimate capacity. The results show that SVM has the potential to be a practical tool for prediction of the ultimate capacity of pile in clay.     

城市深基坑工程地下水位监测问题的研究

简要论述了城市深基坑工程地下水监测的重要性,介绍了目前城市深基坑工程地下水位监测中存在的主要问题：对地下水位监测不重视、监测孔设计及施工不合理等。并借鉴和引用水利、地质等部门的规范,对水位监测孔质量检验提出一些建议。对规范城市深基坑工程地下水位监测具有重大的意义。     

关于集合Kalman滤波的理论和方法的发展

随着同化方法的不断的发展，一种新的资料同化方法——集合Kalman滤波正在兴起。简单地回顾了同化方法的发展，探讨了集合Kalman滤波的特点。同时，还介绍了集合Kalman滤波发展的过程以及指出目前所面临的问题和未来的发展趋势。     

夏季西北太平洋台风生成数的敏感性因子

比较了台风生成参数中各因子与西北太平洋7-9月台风生成数(WNPSTYN)的相关关系,也比较各因子在北半球台风主要源区的纬向距平分布特征,发现涡度因子与WNPSTYN的关系最好,在台风生成条件中相对富有但不特别富足的特性决定了其是WNPSTYN年际变化的敏感性因子.同时还分析了西北太平洋关键区涡度因子年际变化的来源和表征台风生成数的优越性,发现关键区涡度因子年际变化与南方涛动、南极涛动和澳洲东部高度场的年际变化有关,体现了南半球两大系统和ENSO对WNPSTYN的影响；涡度因子与WNPSTYN的显著相关区与台风生成源地集中区一致,表征台风年际变化有明显的优越性.这些特性对关于WNPSTYN的影响机制研究和气候模式模拟有非常重要的意义.     

温度时序资料确定地下水流速解析模型灵敏度分析

不同深度处的含水介质温度时序资料振幅比或相位滞后能用来计算地下水垂向流速,典型的解析模型是Hatch模型。为了评价Hatch模型的参数灵敏度,采用局部灵敏度分析方法确定该模型的主要影响因子及相关参数与模型响应的依存关系,再由全局灵敏度分析方法评价参数共同作用对模型计算结果的影响。灵敏度分析结果表明:Hatch模型精度的主要影响因子是测点距离（Δz）,其次是介质比热容（ρ_sc_s）和有效孔隙度（n_e）,而基准热传导系数（λ₀）和热弥散度（β）的影响甚微。基准热传导系数和热弥散度与计算流速呈负相关,其余参数则与之呈正相关。因此在实践中,需保证测点距离的准确性,而对基准热传导系数和热弥散度可取经验值。     

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BY USING MULTIPLE CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES

Ensemble prediction experiments of the tracks of eight tropical cyclones occurring between 2004 -2006 over the western Pacific have been performed by using MM5 with five cumulus parameterizations chemes. The results show that the predictions of the tracks of the tropical cyclones are sensitive to the selection of cumulus parameterization schemes. Each scheme has its own advantage and disadvantage, and the predications without cumulus parameterization schemes are not the worst, sometimes even better than the others. And all of the three ensemble methods improve the predictions of the tracks significantly, among which the ensemble method without parameterization schemes, the Grell, Betts-Miller and Kain-Fritsch schemes are the best.